Tag Archives | Xi Jinping

MIB Daily: Good News Is Now the Fed’s Problem, as MSFT +3.66% and a 1.6% Capex Jump Carry AI Into Industrials, Xi Leaves Without Deals and Wednesday’s Core PCE Decides an October Hike

Microsoft (MSFT) jumped 3.66%, leading the Dow and S&P 500, after a Copilot overhaul putting its agents on usage-based pricing. Core capital-goods orders rose 1.6%, but Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%, keeping an October hike in play. WTI fell 2.01% on hopes of a phased US-Iran Hormuz deal. Xi left Washington with no new purchase deals and advanced chips off the table. BofA double-downgraded Nike (NKE) to Underperform with a $30 target, six days before earnings.

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MIB Daily: The Bond Market Is Doing the Fed’s Job, the 10-Year Hits 5.225% and the 7-Year Clears at a 1993 High as Brent Tops $107, and Only Meta Holds the Line While Utilities and Housing Pay

The 10-year jumped 10.9 bps to 5.225%, its highest since 2007, and the 7-year auction cleared at the highest yield since 1993. Brent surged 4.25% to $107.46 on an Iranian threat to widen the war and Houthi missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu terminal. The Fed’s Williams called another hike by year-end “reasonable.” META +4.50% held the S&P 500 flat as eight of 11 sectors fell. Anthropic committed $11.6B to Akamai’s cloud. ORCL -3.47% on a Project Jupiter force-majeure notice.

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MIB Daily: The 10-Year Hit 5.11%, Its Highest Since 2007, as a Hot PMI Turned Good News Into Rate Risk and Brent Topped $100, Leaving Stocks With No Bond Hedge and Small Caps and Utilities Hit Hardest

The 10-year yield jumped 16.2 bps to 5.110%, highest since June 2007, after a hot flash PMI (58.4) and a weak 5-year auction. Stocks fell with bonds: S&P 500 -0.75%, Russell 2000 -1.77%. Fed’s Barr: further adjustments “likely to be needed”; October hike odds near 73%. Brent surged 4.43% back above $100 on Iran’s UN defiance despite a US crude build. McDonald’s sank 4.81% on flat-traffic guidance. Bessent is “open” to extending the China truce before Thursday’s Xi summit.

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MIB: Stagflation Confirmed, $105 Oil, China Stalled — Warsh Has No Good Move; REITs, Chips, & Long-Tech Now Lose

Trump-Xi Day 2: zero binding deals on tariffs, semiconductors, or Taiwan; S&P -1.24%, 10Y +14 bps to 4.60%, stagflation pricing confirmed. WTI +4.26% to $105.48 on Hormuz collapse — ~10% weekly gain compounds the tariff-inflation stack. Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair with >50% 2026 rate-hike odds; June 16 FOMC is his first test. Chip leaders MU, INTC, AMD down 5–7% on NVDA pre-positioning and unresolved China export overhang. Ackman disclosed MSFT at 21x, exited GOOGL; MSFT +3.05% vs. Nasdaq -1.54%.

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MIB: Summit Override — S&P and Nasdaq ATH Despite PPI 6.0%, Warsh Confirmed, 30-Year Clears 5%

S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high (7,444) as the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing drove AI and semiconductor stocks to records — Nvidia reached $5.5T market cap and Trump confirmed discussing Blackwell chip exports with Xi — even as April PPI printed +6.0% YoY, the hottest since December 2022. Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chair 54-45, inheriting a policy trap. The 30-year Treasury crossed 5.046% at auction. The IEA warned of the largest oil supply deficit in history at 8.5 mb/day.

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  ANNOUNCEMENT : The next generation WLEI3 had its first out-of-sample update! An auspicious moment for index builders.