Chips led a narrow rebound from Thursday’s AI rout: AMD jumped 11.04% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.35%; the Dow fell 0.46%. October payrolls rose 165,000, far above forecasts, lifting CME December hike odds to 78% as 2-year yields rose 4.8 bps. Fed’s Daly expects policy will have to tighten further. Brent headed for its largest weekly drop since 2020 on US-Iran talks. Microsoft is reportedly winding down Oracle compute rentals. Tesla (+4.23%) will wind down Cybertruck output for Cybercab.
Tag Archives | Jamieson Greer
MIB Daily: Short-Covering Chip Bounce Lifts AMD 11% as 165,000 Jobs Push December Hike Odds to 78%, Microsoft Cools on Oracle Compute and Brent Has Its Biggest Weekly Drop Since 2020, Leaving AI Hardware Exposed to CPI
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MIB Daily: Good News Is Now the Fed’s Problem, as MSFT +3.66% and a 1.6% Capex Jump Carry AI Into Industrials, Xi Leaves Without Deals and Wednesday’s Core PCE Decides an October Hike
Microsoft (MSFT) jumped 3.66%, leading the Dow and S&P 500, after a Copilot overhaul putting its agents on usage-based pricing. Core capital-goods orders rose 1.6%, but Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%, keeping an October hike in play. WTI fell 2.01% on hopes of a phased US-Iran Hormuz deal. Xi left Washington with no new purchase deals and advanced chips off the table. BofA double-downgraded Nike (NKE) to Underperform with a $30 target, six days before earnings.
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MIB Daily: The AI Trade Failed a Funding Test, Not a Demand Test, Alibaba Paying 9.67% for $10.2bn; Steel Rallied on a Tariff Priced Out; Payments Led; Yield Relief Was Plumbing; Nvidia Reports Wednesday
Samsung’s record $65-80bn payout still disappointed and took the US memory complex with it: SanDisk -6.49%, Micron -5.85%, the chip index into a bear market. Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian autos and parts from 2027; Detroit sold off. Alibaba raised $10.2bn for AI at an 8.4% discount and fell 9.67%. Treasury’s broadest-ever Iran sanctions somehow knocked crude down 2.4%, though diesel still runs 52% above last year. Money hid in payments; Visa hit a 52-week high. Nvidia reports Wednesday.
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MIB Daily: Bad News Stopped Being Good News, Weak Retail Sales and Hormuz Risk Lifted Yields as AMD’s Bond Deal Beat Broadcom’s AI Debt Fears, Setting Up Wednesday’s Tariff Cliff for Energy Over Tech
A record intraday high evaporated: retail sales fell 0.6% and UMich sentiment crashed to 51.0 — yet Treasuries sold off, because inflation expectations rose. The 10Y hit 4.692% and GDPNow cut Q3 growth to 4.3%. AMD surged 6.50% on a record $4.75B bond deal while Broadcom sank 5.94% on hidden AI debt. Goldman began syndicating Nvidia’s $500B financing. The UAE accused Iran of piracy in Hormuz. And Canada is five days from a 50% tariff cliff.
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MIB: Ceasefire Rally to Records, Oil Surges Past $100, GEV Confirms AI Power Boom
Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely — S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit simultaneous all-time records for the first time since the war began Feb. 28. Oil defied the peace signal, surging above $100 as Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz. GEV +13.75%: Q1 data center orders exceeded all of 2025, validating the AI power thesis. Tesla AMC: EPS beat but delivery miss and energy storage collapse cloud the outlook. CUSMA renewal “unlikely by July 1,” USTR warns.
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MIB: GTC Sparks Relief Rally — Nvidia’s $1T AI Forecast, FOMC Dot Plot, USMCA Launch, and the Hormuz Oil Clock
Nvidia’s GTC keynote delivers $1T AI chip order forecast (NVDA +2.2%), snapping the S&P’s 3-week losing streak (+1.01%). Meta plans to cut 20% of staff (16K jobs) to fund $135B AI build. USMCA formal review launches — US and Mexico
begin talks with a July 1 deadline. Oil retreats ~4% from overnight highs but Hormuz stays closed. FOMC convenes tomorrow; stagflation dot plot is the week’s defining risk. Bitcoin hits 6-week high ($74.5K, +3.7%).
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