The 10-year Treasury closed Thursday at 5.225%, its highest since 2007, after a flash PMI at 58.4 and eight Fed speakers pushed October hike odds to roughly 70% — and yet the S&P 500 finished up 1.21%. That gain belonged to almost nobody: the Nasdaq 100 rose 3.25% on Meta (+12.90%), Qualcomm (+13.65%), Intel (+13.26%) and AMD (+12.65%), while the NYSE Composite and the Russell 2000 both fell. Oracle lost 7.12% on a force-majeure notice over its New Mexico data centre.
Tag Archives | Costco
MIB Weekly: The Economy Was Too Strong to Save the Bond Market, 10-Year at a 2007 High and October Odds Near 70%, Agents Priced by Usage, the Build-Out Short of Power, the Median Stock 18.6% Below
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MIB Daily: Good News Is Now the Fed’s Problem, as MSFT +3.66% and a 1.6% Capex Jump Carry AI Into Industrials, Xi Leaves Without Deals and Wednesday’s Core PCE Decides an October Hike
Microsoft (MSFT) jumped 3.66%, leading the Dow and S&P 500, after a Copilot overhaul putting its agents on usage-based pricing. Core capital-goods orders rose 1.6%, but Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%, keeping an October hike in play. WTI fell 2.01% on hopes of a phased US-Iran Hormuz deal. Xi left Washington with no new purchase deals and advanced chips off the table. BofA double-downgraded Nike (NKE) to Underperform with a $30 target, six days before earnings.
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MIB Daily: The Bond Market Is Doing the Fed’s Job, the 10-Year Hits 5.225% and the 7-Year Clears at a 1993 High as Brent Tops $107, and Only Meta Holds the Line While Utilities and Housing Pay
The 10-year jumped 10.9 bps to 5.225%, its highest since 2007, and the 7-year auction cleared at the highest yield since 1993. Brent surged 4.25% to $107.46 on an Iranian threat to widen the war and Houthi missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu terminal. The Fed’s Williams called another hike by year-end “reasonable.” META +4.50% held the S&P 500 flat as eight of 11 sectors fell. Anthropic committed $11.6B to Akamai’s cloud. ORCL -3.47% on a Project Jupiter force-majeure notice.
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MIB Daily: A Rate Hike Un-Priced in One Session With No Official Able to Answer, the VIX Down 12.82%, Chips Bid Without News While CoreWeave Fell 4.16% Raising $3.0 Billion, and Three Central Banks Turn by Friday
Markets un-priced Wednesday’s Fed hike in one session — VIX -12.82%, the 10-Year -6.7bps to 4.937%, S&P 500 +1.14%. Chip and AI-infrastructure names took all five top mega-cap gainer slots: Intel +7.62%, AMD +6.30%, Micron +5.50%. Jobless claims fell to 196K; housing missed across the board. The Bank of England held at 3.75% and paused gilt sales for six months. The SEC opened a five-year path for tokenized stocks. CoreWeave fell 4.16% raising $3bn; private rival Crusoe’s $3.9bn round was oversubscribed.
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MIB Daily: AI’s Boom Is Now the Fed’s Inflation Fear — S&P +0.81%, Hike Odds to 59%, Iran Priced as Contained, Semis Up as Premium Names Sold Ahead of July 14 CPI
Markets shrugged off a second day of US-Iran strikes as the S&P 500 gained 0.81% and Nasdaq 100 surged 1.62% on an AI-chip rally ahead of SK Hynix’s record $29B Nasdaq debut. NY Fed’s Williams named AI demand his top inflation fear, sending 2026 hike odds to 59% from 48%. Costco (COST) tumbled 4.2% on decelerating comps while oil fell 2.3% despite fresh strikes. State AGs moved to block the $110B Paramount-WBD merger while a 30-year auction drew record demand.
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MIB Daily: DELL +32.8%, Dow 51K — AI capex now structural; market priced growth, Iran deal, and no June hike simultaneously. Overweight tech; hedge the binary
Dell’s AI server blowout — $43.8B revenue, AI revenue +757%, $51.3B backlog — drove DELL +32.8% and the Dow above 51,000 for the first time, with IBM +12.71% on quantum/CHIPS momentum. Chicago PMI surged to 62.7, a 37-month high — Monday’s ISM is the critical confirmation. Bowman and Schmid raised June FOMC hike risk; Schmid floated accelerated QT as a policy tool. Trump’s Iran meeting ended undecided; oil’s 17% monthly loss has a deal priced in — Monday open is binary.
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MIB Daily: Record Day Six, Worst Profit Quarter in Six — PLTR +8.17%, ORCL +6.67%; PCE 3.8% Locks the Fed; Own Government AI, Fade the Grid
S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time records for a sixth straight session — PLTR +8.17%, ORCL +6.67% on JPMorgan’s ‘fourth hyperscaler’ call, AMD +4.55% — while Q1 GDP was revised to 1.6% and corporate profits collapsed -0.4% vs. +5.7% consensus. April PCE held at 3.8% with personal income flat, widening the consumer spending gap. LLY +4.05%: CVS Caremark restored Zepbound and approved oral GLP-1 Foundayo. Anthropic closed $65B at $965B. FOMC split: Williams holds; Musalem warns AI can’t rescue the Fed.
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MIB: PCE Re-Accelerates, Consumer Confidence Craters, and Nvidia Defies the Macro
Nvidia reported Q4 EPS of $1.62 (est. $1.53) with revenue of $68.1B and guided Q1 to $78B — sending shares +6% after-hours on a near-record beat. Markets shrugged off Trump’s SOTU optimism as economists warned the SCOTUS tariff reversal won’t translate to lower consumer prices. December PCE Core re-accelerated to 3.0% YoY — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge moving in the wrong direction and eliminating any realistic H1 rate cut. Silver surged 3.4% to near $90/oz while First Solar cratered 18% on a brutal guidance miss. S&P 500 +0.81%, Nasdaq +1.26%.
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