About RecessionALERT

Dwaine has a Bachelor of Science honors degree and is a full-time trader and investor. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT into a company used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms and financial advisers around the world.
Author Archive | RecessionALERT

Adjusting Fed Funds Rate for QE to predict rate cycle direction changes

The Federal Reserve Funds Rate (Fed Funds Rate) is the interest rate that banks charge other banks for lending them money from their reserve balances on an overnight basis. By law, banks must maintain a reserve equal to a certain percentage of their deposits in an account at a Federal Reserve bank. Any money in their […]

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RAVI Warning issued

This subscriber-only client alert has now been unlocked for public viewing. NOTE : The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) now warrants its own, more detailed, dedicated PDF report which you can now find in the REPORTS>RAVI menu tab: Well, it has finally happened, we have a recession and stock market bear warning from just about every […]

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Is the U.S Yield Curve Inversion locked in?

In our February 2019 commentary we forecast that the 10’s and 1’s yield-curve would invert in May. The data below is taken from that market commentary, with a warning that the indicated dates of recession have a very wide standard deviation over the historical record: The 10’s and 1’s term spread has been inverted since […]

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The improved, de-trended Composite Market Health Index (CMHI)

One of our oldest and most consulted indicators by our institutional clients is the Composite Market Health Index (CMHI – see research paper ). By de-trending this index around its long-term regression mean we can obtain far earlier bear-market warnings and signalling for the U.S stock markets. You can see this index updated every day […]

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Impact of monetary policy & yield curve on future volatility

This research note investigates the relationship between the yield curve (US 10-year less US 1-year constant-maturity treasury spread) and the Federal Funds Rate (monetary policy) on the future readings of the CBOE VIX index. The 10’s vs. 1’s yield-curve and U.S recessions in the post-war era are displayed below, where it is clear that the […]

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Unemployment is worse than it looks

The U.S civilian unemployment rate reached new lows of 3.6% in April – numbers last seen 51 years ago in 1968: There are a number of ways to use the national unemployment rate to signal recession, but almost all of them are co-incident to slightly lagging in the warning they provide. We have the most […]

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What are odds of a SP500 reversal?

The SP-500 has corrected 4.35% from its recent high achieved a couple of days after our repeated warnings of high correction risks. The question that naturally comes to mind now, as we embark on this corrective phase, is what the odds of the worst being over are. We have been working on a statistical model […]

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A new U.S Residential Housing Index

According to many market watchers, there is no better barometer on the health of the U.S. economy than residential housing. It’s an industry that encompasses many vital sectors of the economy such as banking, manufacturing, commodities, construction, durable goods, international trade, transportation and, of course, consumer spending. So it’s not surprising the Federal Reserve closely […]

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Global Growth Roundup – 4Q2018

NOTE : The following charts are extracts from our monthly Global Economy Report available with a standard subscription. Global Economic Activity slowing at the fastest pace since 2011 The cumulative GDP growth for the 4 quarters of 2018 for all 41 major countries covered by the OECD display a stark contrast between the best and […]

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U.S Stock Market Valuations continue to warn

We have updated the RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) forecast models for the SP500 using 4Q2018 data. Stock market valuations continue to pose a “clear and present danger” to positive economic and SP500 returns outcomes, and have worsened since our last warning . One and two year SP500 forecasts continue to offer relatively accurate short-run estimates […]

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Yield curve inversion forecast update – Feb ’19

Based on the methodology discussed here we hereby update our U.S Yield-curve inversion forecast and subsequent recession and stock market peak forecasts. All the forecast dates have moved foward by 1 month as the yield curve continues to print below its regression mean: As a matter of interest, 60% of all 10 possible term-spreads have […]

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World in depths of business cycle slowdown

On 8th June 2018 we penned a warning that the worlds’ major 41 economies, as tracked by the OECD, were headed for a synchronized business cycle slowdown. You can read the article here : World headed for cyclical slowdown. Indeed, as you can see below, for quite a few months shortly afterward, we bottomed out […]

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WLEI updated and some news

The U.S Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) as at 01 Feb 2019 has been updated to our front page together with historical vintages file. Here is a snapshot of the last few vintages: We seem to be revising down each week but the overall shape of the WLEI still hints at an index attempting to […]

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Yield curve inversion forecast update – Dec ’18

Based on the methodology discussed here we hereby update our U.S Yield-curve inversion forecast and subsequent recession and stock market peak forecasts. All the forecast dates have moved foward by 1 month:

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Yield Curve Inversion Forecast Update Nov 2018

Based on the methodology discussed here we hereby update our U.S Yield-curve inversion forecast and subsequent recession and stock market peak forecasts. All the forecast dates have moved further back by 5 months:

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Stocks valuations pose “clear & present” danger.

Those clients who have been with us since 2010 will know our refrain from issuing unnecessary and/or sensationalist warnings about the economy and markets. In fact, in 2012, the general consensus was that the US economy was about to fall back into recession, a view we opposed to quite some ridicule from certain quarters. Whilst […]

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2nd derivative of WLEI posts warning

The RecessionALERT Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) is essentially a first derivative indicator (rate of change). We can create the second derivative by measuring the percentage of time the WLEI has historically spent above the current reading. The history shows us that this is a good leading indicator for another WLEI metric, namely the percentage […]

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SP500 was ahead of itself but tailwinds could be back

During the 6 months running from March to September 2018, the SP500 was running counter to the seasonal average returns profile of the 4-year U.S Presidential Cycle: It appears the seasonality averages eventually got their way and the SP500 fell hard in October 2018, in what was supposed to be a strong month. In all […]

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Yield curve inversion & recession forecast

There is naturally a lot of focus on the U.S yield-curve at the moment, as it moves relentlessly toward inversion (when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates.) Can the history of the yield-curve inversion provide for useful forecasting as to the start dates of the next U.S recession? The 10’s vs. 1’s yield-curve and […]

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World headed for cyclical slowdown

Despite the U.S leading economic indicators appearing healthy, the global economy appears to be headed for a slow down, with only 34% of the 40 countries we track having leading economic indicators (LEI’s) signalling growth ahead, and the actual GDP-weighted Global LEI growth now below zero: The specific country details are displayed below: The European […]

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