The Strait of Hormuz war escalated all week — a reinstated blockade, six nights of US strikes, and a Friday threat to close a second chokepoint — pushing oil up 15%. A parallel AI-capex credibility crisis pushed the semiconductor index into a bear market, even as PayPal surged 16-17% on a $53 billion takeover bid from Stripe and Advent. IBM crashed 25% (worst since 1987) while Goldman Sachs surged 9% to a record high, and the Fed stayed hawkish despite cooling inflation.
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MIB Weekly: SOX -20% Into a Bear Market as PANW Hits Records and Oil Jumps 15% — the Fed Still Won’t Blink Despite Cooling CPI
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MIB Daily: IBM’s Worst Day Since 1987 Confirms the AI-to-Cybersecurity Rotation — CPI Cools to 3.5%, But Wednesday’s PPI Decides If the Fed Agrees
June CPI cooled sharply to 3.5% y/y, crushing July Fed hike odds to 17% from 42%, as Chair Warsh’s first House testimony struck a hawkish note. Markets rallied broadly (S&P +0.39%, Nasdaq +1.10%) despite IBM’s historic 25% crash, its worst day since 1987, as enterprise clients pivot spend toward AI hardware — hammering software (Oracle -2.7%) while cybersecurity soared (CrowdStrike +12%). Goldman Sachs surged 9.16% on record trading. Oil jumped over 2% as Trump narrowed the Hormuz blockade to Iran-linked shipping.
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MIB Weekly: SK Hynix and Meta Powered Through Iran and a Hawkish Fed, But Software Lagged — SpaceX’s Junk Spreads Say the AI Trade’s Real Test Is Still Ahead
AI-infrastructure conviction defined the week: SK Hynix’s record $26.5B Nasdaq debut surged 14%, Meta rallied roughly 15% on its “Meta Compute” cloud pivot, and Broadcom extended a $30B+ Apple chip deal — even as a genuine US-Iran ceasefire collapse sent oil spiking as much as 5.9% and nine of eleven S&P sectors red mid-week. The Fed turned meaningfully more hawkish, with 2026 rate-hike odds jumping to 59% after Williams named AI-driven demand his top inflation risk. The S&P 500 closed +1.24%; the Dow finished red.
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MIB Daily: SK Hynix +14% AI Frenzy Meets SpaceX’s Junk-Rated Credit Hangover — Does Tuesday’s CPI Break Warsh’s Hawkish Bet?
SK Hynix’s record $26.5B Nasdaq debut popped 14% and Meta’s best week since 2024 powered stocks higher, though small-caps and high-multiple software names (PANW, DELL, MRVL) slid on rate jitters. Fed Chair Warsh’s first Monetary Policy Report struck a hawkish note ahead of Tuesday’s CPI and his House/Senate testimony next week — with FOMC minutes showing 9 of 18 officials eyeing a hike. SpaceX bonds trade like junk. Trade deficit widened to $77.6B. Nvidia rose 4% on eased UAE chip curbs.
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MIB Daily: Oil +6%, Gold Falls — AI Chips Buck a 577-Point Dow Drop as a Split Fed Eyes July 28
Iran’s ceasefire collapsed as the U.S. struck 80+ targets and Treasury revoked Tehran’s oil waiver, sending WTI up 5.9% and Brent up 6.9%. The Dow sank 577 points (-1.1%) as nine of eleven sectors fell. Hawkish FOMC minutes showed nine of eighteen officials still eyeing a hike on AI-capex and oil-driven inflation risk. AI chips bucked the selloff — Broadcom’s $30B Apple deal, Nvidia’s China reports, and Arista +8.8%. Gold fell 1.7% despite the risk-off tape. May consumer credit unexpectedly contracted.
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MIB Daily: Iran snaps the nine-session streak with WTI at $96 — Logan raises hike odds to 41%, SOXX surges vs. AI software, and $75B SpaceX supply hits June 12. Will NFP finish the job Friday?
US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island and IRGC retaliation on Kuwait bases ended the S&P 500’s nine-session streak; WTI hit $96. Fed’s Logan called policy “a bit loose” pre-blackout, pushing hike odds to 41%; ADP 122K and dual ISM above 54 make Friday NFP the pivot. SpaceX priced the largest US IPO in history ($1.75T, $75B raise, June 12 Nasdaq); Anthropic filed at $1T the same day. Trump proposed 10–12.5% tariffs on 60 partners including Canada, Mexico, and the EU.
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MIB Daily: MRVL +33%, S&P 7,600 on Huang’s Computex Crown — Hammack’s Hike Signal Makes Friday’s NFP the Market’s Next Binary
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang named Marvell “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex — MRVL +33%, chip equipment up 5-7%, S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time. Alphabet’s $80B equity offering to fund AI capex sent GOOGL -4%; Berkshire took a $10B stake. FTC broadened antitrust probe into Microsoft’s cloud/AI bundling (MSFT -4%). JOLTS April surged 731K above consensus as Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warned a rate hike “may soon be appropriate,” pushing 2026 hike odds to 34% with WTI above $93.
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MIB: January PPI Beats, China Tariffs Escalate, Iran Risk Surges, and Dell Defies the Tech Rout
Hot PPI (+0.5%) ignites stagflation fears, sending Dow -521 pts and 10Y yield below 4% for first time in 4 months. Trump announces extra 10% China tariff effective March 4. S&P 500 logs worst February since March 2025 on AI-inflation-tariff triple threat. Gold surges to $5,200+ record as US evacuates Israel embassy staff on Iran war fears. Dell (DELL +16.64%) bucks the selloff with record $9B AI server quarter.
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