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MIB Daily: Iran snaps the nine-session streak with WTI at $96 — Logan raises hike odds to 41%, SOXX surges vs. AI software, and $75B SpaceX supply hits June 12. Will NFP finish the job Friday?

By RecessionALERT on June 3, 2026 in Reflections

US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island and IRGC retaliation on Kuwait bases ended the S&P 500’s nine-session streak; WTI hit $96. Fed’s Logan called policy “a bit loose” pre-blackout, pushing hike odds to 41%; ADP 122K and dual ISM above 54 make Friday NFP the pivot. SpaceX priced the largest US IPO in history ($1.75T, $75B raise, June 12 Nasdaq); Anthropic filed at $1T the same day. Trump proposed 10–12.5% tariffs on 60 partners including Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

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MIB Daily: MRVL +33%, S&P 7,600 on Huang’s Computex Crown — Hammack’s Hike Signal Makes Friday’s NFP the Market’s Next Binary

By RecessionALERT on June 2, 2026 in Reflections

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang named Marvell “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex — MRVL +33%, chip equipment up 5-7%, S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time. Alphabet’s $80B equity offering to fund AI capex sent GOOGL -4%; Berkshire took a $10B stake. FTC broadened antitrust probe into Microsoft’s cloud/AI bundling (MSFT -4%). JOLTS April surged 731K above consensus as Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warned a rate hike “may soon be appropriate,” pushing 2026 hike odds to 34% with WTI above $93.

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MIB: January PPI Beats, China Tariffs Escalate, Iran Risk Surges, and Dell Defies the Tech Rout

By RecessionALERT on February 27, 2026 in Reflections

Hot PPI (+0.5%) ignites stagflation fears, sending Dow -521 pts and 10Y yield below 4% for first time in 4 months. Trump announces extra 10% China tariff effective March 4. S&P 500 logs worst February since March 2025 on AI-inflation-tariff triple threat. Gold surges to $5,200+ record as US evacuates Israel embassy staff on Iran war fears. Dell (DELL +16.64%) bucks the selloff with record $9B AI server quarter.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.