US forces struck IRGC targets inside Iran; WTI jumped 5.82% to $90.75 and Energy was the only green sector of note. The 10-Year hit a one-year high of 4.799% and gutted software — Oracle -5.23%, CrowdStrike -6.90%. Soft JOLTS and a cooling ISM left September hike odds at 66%. Gold fell 2.39%; the safe-haven bid never came. Anthropic signed a $35 billion cloud deal with Nvidia-backed Lambda. A judge let the shale price-fixing case proceed against Exxon, EOG and Occidental.
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MIB Daily: The Hedges Failed at the Moment of the Crisis, Gold -2.39% and Treasuries Sold Off as WTI Jumped 5.82% to $90.75, Debt-Financed AI Lost 5-7%, and Soft JOLTS Left Hike Odds at 66% Into Friday’s Payrolls
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MIB Weekly: The S&P Rose 0.49% and Told You Nothing, Warsh Sent the 2Y Up 12.2bp and Hike Odds to 68%, Chicago PMI Hit 47.1, Gold and Semicap Took the Hit, Marvell Paid 10.28% for 90bp of Margin
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to say the central bank has “more work to do” on inflation, and the two-year Treasury yield ended the week 12.2 basis points higher at 4.354% — September is now a live hike meeting, with Polymarket’s 2026 hike contract up twelve points to 68%. The damage landed on gold (−3.50%) and the Russell 2000 (−1.51%), not the S&P 500 (+0.49%). Friday’s rate move then took semiconductor equipment down 4–5%.
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MIB Daily: One Sector Bought the Rally on the Day Washington Proposed Taxing It, Tech +3.09% Against an NYSE Down 0.38%, Three Fed Hawks Moved the Two-Year 0.8bp, PANW +12.83% on an Unsigned Deal, Warsh Friday
Technology surged 3.09% and carried the S&P 500 up 0.72% — while the NYSE Composite fell and eight of eleven sectors closed red. Cleveland’s Hammack says “now is the time to act” on a rate hike; the two-year moved 0.8bp. July’s goods trade gap blew out to $118.8B on a 68.7% jump in Korean chip imports — the same flow Washington is weighing tariffing. Palo Alto +12.83% on deal reports. Nvidia is said to be buying Hugging Face for $12.9B.
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MIB Daily: The Debt Manager Rescued the Long End, Not the Fed, as Chips Fell 5.6% With 30 of 30 Down and Nebius -9.87% Repriced AI’s Funding End, Leaving Healthcare +3.37% and Metals +3.62% Hostage to Rates
Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks and the tape turned: 10-year -6.8 bps, dollar -0.86%, gold +3.60%. Not a Fed trade: the July minutes showed several members ready to hike, nobody for a cut, and the market shrugged. Chips fell 5.6% a second day, all 30 down. Merck +12.60% on the first Phase 3 win for a cancer vaccine. Marvell handed Google a $12.2bn warrant; Broadcom paid -4.61%. Canada’s 50% tariffs pause three days; Bitcoin +6.25% on an SEC framework.
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MIB Daily: Oil’s 5% Hormuz shock reprices inflation risk as chipmakers tap $500B in outside AI financing and a second chokepoint breaks the rerouting hedge — does September turn stagflationary after Wednesday’s CPI?
Oil ripped 5.2% after Iran demanded the US blockade lift before Hormuz reopens — Energy +3.61%, the S&P still closed flat. Yields and VIX rose together: an inflation scare, not a growth one, two days before CPI. Cleveland’s Hammack wants more than one hike. Chips led the downside — Nvidia -2.87% on $500B of financing, Intel -4.04% on a $15B raise — while TSMC’s July revenue hit a record. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike set records. Vertex jumped 6% on a rival’s failure.
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MIB Daily: IBM’s Worst Day Since 1987 Confirms the AI-to-Cybersecurity Rotation — CPI Cools to 3.5%, But Wednesday’s PPI Decides If the Fed Agrees
June CPI cooled sharply to 3.5% y/y, crushing July Fed hike odds to 17% from 42%, as Chair Warsh’s first House testimony struck a hawkish note. Markets rallied broadly (S&P +0.39%, Nasdaq +1.10%) despite IBM’s historic 25% crash, its worst day since 1987, as enterprise clients pivot spend toward AI hardware — hammering software (Oracle -2.7%) while cybersecurity soared (CrowdStrike +12%). Goldman Sachs surged 9.16% on record trading. Oil jumped over 2% as Trump narrowed the Hormuz blockade to Iran-linked shipping.
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MIB Daily: Iran snaps the nine-session streak with WTI at $96 — Logan raises hike odds to 41%, SOXX surges vs. AI software, and $75B SpaceX supply hits June 12. Will NFP finish the job Friday?
US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island and IRGC retaliation on Kuwait bases ended the S&P 500’s nine-session streak; WTI hit $96. Fed’s Logan called policy “a bit loose” pre-blackout, pushing hike odds to 41%; ADP 122K and dual ISM above 54 make Friday NFP the pivot. SpaceX priced the largest US IPO in history ($1.75T, $75B raise, June 12 Nasdaq); Anthropic filed at $1T the same day. Trump proposed 10–12.5% tariffs on 60 partners including Canada, Mexico, and the EU.
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MIB Daily: MRVL +33%, S&P 7,600 on Huang’s Computex Crown — Hammack’s Hike Signal Makes Friday’s NFP the Market’s Next Binary
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang named Marvell “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex — MRVL +33%, chip equipment up 5-7%, S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time. Alphabet’s $80B equity offering to fund AI capex sent GOOGL -4%; Berkshire took a $10B stake. FTC broadened antitrust probe into Microsoft’s cloud/AI bundling (MSFT -4%). JOLTS April surged 731K above consensus as Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warned a rate hike “may soon be appropriate,” pushing 2026 hike odds to 34% with WTI above $93.
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MIB: Paper-Thin S&P/Nasdaq Records as Hormuz Re-Escalates, OpenAI Decouples from Microsoft, & Powell Convenes His Final FOMC
S&P 500 (+0.12%) and Nasdaq (+0.01%) eked out paper-thin records as Brent spiked above $101 on stalled Hormuz talks. Trump cancelled Pakistan envoys; IEA warned supply won’t recover for two years. Qualcomm surged 12% on a report OpenAI is building an AI smartphone chip with QCOM and MediaTek. Microsoft-OpenAI exclusivity ended, freeing OpenAI to deploy on AWS/GCP. Powell’s likely final FOMC opens Tuesday; Warsh Senate vote Wednesday. Verizon posted its first positive Q1 phone adds in 13 years.
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MIB: February CPI Calm Before Storm, IEA Record Oil Release, Oracle +12% as AI Cloud Demand Holds Firm
Oracle surges 12.2% as OCI results blow past estimates (RPO $553B), proving AI cloud demand is war-proof. IEA triggers largest-ever oil reserve release (400M barrels) but WTI holds above $86 — Hormuz still closed. February CPI tame at +2.4% — calm before the storm as energy shock hits March data. Centene (CNC) -14% as CEO warns ACA enrollment collapses 36%. Airlines down 30% YTD; energy sector +25% YTD. All eyes on Adobe Thursday and UMich Friday.
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MIB: Senate Clears Iran Strikes, Services PMI Hits 4-Year High, and Broadcom’s AI Revenue Doubles to $8.4B
Iran peace talk whipsaws oil — NYT reports secret Iran-CIA outreach, Tehran denies; VIX tumbles from 26.4 to 20.4. Broadcom AI revenue doubles to $8.4B, Q2 guidance $22B (AVGO up AMC). ISM services PMI hits 56.1%, strongest since 2022. ADP +63K, but January slashed to 11K. CrowdStrike (CRWD) +1.79% on earnings digest; Ross Stores (ROST) +7% on Q4 beat. Senate defeats war powers resolution.
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MIB: Hormuz Crisis Day 3 — Oil +15%, Stagflation Signal Flashes, Fed Pulls Back on Rate Cuts
US-Iran war enters Day 3 — gold hit $5,417 record Monday, oil +15% this week. S&P 500 -0.94%, trimmed from intraday -2.5% loss after Trump’s Navy escort announcement. Fed’s Williams and Kashkari pull back from 2026 cut forecasts as 10Y yields rise on stagflation fears. UAL -4.09%, DAL -5% on fuel shock. Target (TGT) +7.5% on earnings beat. CrowdStrike beats after the bell.
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MIB: Rebound Day — Meta-AMD Deal Calms AI Fears, Novo Nordisk Enters Price War, & All Eyes Turn to Nvidia
Meta commits up to $100B to AMD GPUs (AMD +9.4%), reversing Monday’s AI selloff. S&P 500 bounced 0.77% from Monday’s “tariff disaster.” Novo Nordisk fell another 3% and announced 50% drug price cuts (dragging LLY -2.2%). PayPal surged 6.74% on Stripe acquisition reports. Bitcoin heading for worst February since 2022 crypto winter. All eyes on Nvidia earnings Wednesday.
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MIB: Sell America — Tariff Chaos & AI Disruption Send S&P Negative for 2026
SCOTUS struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs 6-3 — hours later he imposed a new 15% global tariff under Section 122, sending the S&P 500 -1.04% to 6,837 and negative for 2026. IBM cratered 13.0%, its worst day since October 2000, and CrowdStrike fell 11.3% as Anthropic’s AI coding platform upended legacy tech and cybersecurity. Gold hit a new all-time record above $5,164 on a ‘Sell America’ rotation. Fed’s Waller called a March rate cut a ‘coin flip’ as tariff chaos scrambles the inflation outlook. J.P. Morgan raised recession odds to 35%.
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