It is true that some genuinely troubling signals are starting to make themselves known. Let’s look at some of them.
But by far the most worrying trend, is the labor market, where a broad-based, consistently increasing weakness among the 52 US States is being masked by national numbers being touted about that include high population density states:
The prior chart that shows the average unemployment rate among the 52 states, together with the % of 52 US States with rising unemployment (now at 50%) being in far worse shape than the national unemployment rate below implies:
These are just a few indicators in a battery of twenty-one that we examine, and whilst there are no alarm bells yet, the aggregate composite of all 21 indicators shows the US economy the most vulnerable to exogenous shock since this expansion started: