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MIB Daily: Iran snaps the nine-session streak with WTI at $96 — Logan raises hike odds to 41%, SOXX surges vs. AI software, and $75B SpaceX supply hits June 12. Will NFP finish the job Friday?

By RecessionALERT on June 3, 2026 in Reflections

US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island and IRGC retaliation on Kuwait bases ended the S&P 500’s nine-session streak; WTI hit $96. Fed’s Logan called policy “a bit loose” pre-blackout, pushing hike odds to 41%; ADP 122K and dual ISM above 54 make Friday NFP the pivot. SpaceX priced the largest US IPO in history ($1.75T, $75B raise, June 12 Nasdaq); Anthropic filed at $1T the same day. Trump proposed 10–12.5% tariffs on 60 partners including Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

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MIB Daily: MRVL +33%, S&P 7,600 on Huang’s Computex Crown — Hammack’s Hike Signal Makes Friday’s NFP the Market’s Next Binary

By RecessionALERT on June 2, 2026 in Reflections

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang named Marvell “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex — MRVL +33%, chip equipment up 5-7%, S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time. Alphabet’s $80B equity offering to fund AI capex sent GOOGL -4%; Berkshire took a $10B stake. FTC broadened antitrust probe into Microsoft’s cloud/AI bundling (MSFT -4%). JOLTS April surged 731K above consensus as Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warned a rate hike “may soon be appropriate,” pushing 2026 hike odds to 34% with WTI above $93.

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MIB: Summit Override — S&P and Nasdaq ATH Despite PPI 6.0%, Warsh Confirmed, 30-Year Clears 5%

By RecessionALERT on May 13, 2026 in Reflections

S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high (7,444) as the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing drove AI and semiconductor stocks to records — Nvidia reached $5.5T market cap and Trump confirmed discussing Blackwell chip exports with Xi — even as April PPI printed +6.0% YoY, the hottest since December 2022. Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chair 54-45, inheriting a policy trap. The 30-year Treasury crossed 5.046% at auction. The IEA warned of the largest oil supply deficit in history at 8.5 mb/day.

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MIB: GTC Sparks Relief Rally — Nvidia’s $1T AI Forecast, FOMC Dot Plot, USMCA Launch, and the Hormuz Oil Clock

By RecessionALERT on March 16, 2026 in Reflections

Nvidia’s GTC keynote delivers $1T AI chip order forecast (NVDA +2.2%), snapping the S&P’s 3-week losing streak (+1.01%). Meta plans to cut 20% of staff (16K jobs) to fund $135B AI build. USMCA formal review launches — US and Mexico
begin talks with a July 1 deadline. Oil retreats ~4% from overnight highs but Hormuz stays closed. FOMC convenes tomorrow; stagflation dot plot is the week’s defining risk. Bitcoin hits 6-week high ($74.5K, +3.7%).

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