TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
B. MARKET DATA
C. HIGH-IMPACT STORIES (5)
D. MODERATE-IMPACT STORIES (5)
E. ECONOMY WATCH (5)
F. EARNINGS WATCH (0)
G. WHAT’S NEXT
H. CHART OF THE DAY

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -> TOP

B. MARKET DATA -> TOP

CoreWeave’s third-quarter results, released after Tuesday’s close, revived the AI-infrastructure trade and drove a broad, tech-led rebound: the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.28% and the S&P 500 closed back above 7,600. Breadth was wide, with nine of eleven sectors higher, but the gains split along the AI supply chain: chip and server makers led while three of the largest AI spenders, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, fell. The dollar diverged from the risk-on tape with its highest close since at least April 15, while gold slipped. The cash Treasury market was closed for Veterans Day, so yields barely moved and carry no signal for the session.

CLOSING PRICES – Wednesday, November 11, 2026:

MAJOR INDICES

A broad rebound with tech in front: the Nasdaq 100’s gain was more than four times the Dow’s, while the NYSE Composite rose 0.76% and the Dow Transports 1.19%. With both the Dow and the Transports within 2% of their 10-session highs, a Dow Theory bull confirmation emerges today. Over the past 10 sessions the Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 by 2.17 points, an entrenched small-cap leadership pattern now at least 12 sessions long, and the S&P 500 has beaten the Nasdaq 100 by 3.22 points, a broadening rotation now in its eighth session.

VOLATILITY & TREASURIES

With the cash Treasury market shut for Veterans Day, yields offer no read on the session, and the 2s10s spread is essentially unchanged at about 25 bps. That leaves the dollar as the day’s macro signal: it posted its highest close since at least April 15 alongside a 10.17% drop in the VIX and an equity rally, rather than alongside risk aversion.

COMMODITIES

Gold and silver split: gold fell 0.96% while silver gained 0.93%, and copper edged higher. Gold’s slide came alongside the dollar’s highest close since at least April 15. Bitcoin rose 1.21%, tracking the equity rebound rather than charting its own course.

ENERGY

Brent outpaced WTI, widening the spread to $6.14, while Henry Hub fell and Dutch TTF rose 2.24%, a split between US and European gas. Crude’s gain had a named driver: Iran’s security chief said the country would not allow enriched nuclear material to leave, per Reuters, which also cited continued shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

S&P 500 SECTORS

An 82% breadth sweep: nine of 11 sectors rose, led by Technology (+3.07%) and Energy (+1.49%), confirming a broad relief rally. The holdouts were Consumer Cyclical (-0.29%), home to Amazon’s decline, and Real Estate (-0.14%). Technology’s bounce still leaves it down 9.67% over the month, so one session has repaired little of the rout.

TOP MEGA-CAP MOVERS:

GAINERS

DECLINERS

C. HIGH-IMPACT STORIES -> TOP

1. CoreWeave’s Results Revive the AI-Hardware Trade: Nasdaq 100 Jumps 2.28% as Micron and Dell Gain Nearly 12%, While Microsoft, Meta and Amazon Fall

The core facts:CoreWeave’s third-quarter results, released after Tuesday’s close, beat on revenue ($3.66 billion against expectations of about $3.54-$3.56 billion), raised full-year revenue guidance to $13.0-$13.3 billion, and came with a pledge of no additional parent-level unsecured debt through 2027, per Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid. Its shares rose 24.71% to $60.77. Reuters said the results let investors look past fears of excessive AI spending. The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.28% to 28,374.25 and the S&P 500 1.31% to 7,619.38, its first close above 7,600 since November 4, while the VIX fell 10.17% to 17.48. Technology (+3.07%) led nine of 11 sectors higher. Micron rose 11.89% to $811.30, Dell 11.75%, Oracle 8.82%, Intel 7.52% and AMD 7.32%, with Broadcom up 3.99% and Corning up 7.43% on the day Jefferies initiated it at Buy with a $134 target. Three of the largest AI spenders fell: Microsoft 2.26% to $521.12, Meta 1.97% and Amazon 1.74%.

Why it matters:Much of November’s selloff centred on how AI spending is being financed, and CoreWeave, heavily indebted and with its five-year credit default swaps near 1,150 bps before the print per Goldman Sachs, was the weakest link in that chain. A beat-and-raise paired with a cap on parent-level borrowing addressed the financing question directly, and the relief went straight to the companies that receive AI capital spending: memory, servers and chips. The market drew the opposite conclusion for the companies that pay for it. Microsoft extended Tuesday’s slide on Anthropic’s move into office software, and Meta and Amazon slipped despite the rally. One session repaired only part of the damage: Technology is still down 9.67% over the month and the Nasdaq 100 remains below its November 4 close of 28,437.17.

What to watch:Applied Materials and Cisco report after Thursday’s close, the first test of whether equipment and networking orders held through the selloff; Nvidia reports on Tuesday, November 17.

2. Futures Leave No Doubt on a December Hike and Lean Toward a Second by January, as the Dollar Posts Its Highest Close Since at Least April 15

The core facts:CME FedWatch, read on Wednesday afternoon, prices a 100% probability of a hike at the December 9 FOMC meeting: 89.6% for a quarter-point move to 4.00%-4.25% and 10.4% for a half-point move, up from 8.0% on Tuesday. A week earlier, on November 4, it gave a 17.3% chance of no change. For the January 27 meeting it puts 63.1% on a 4.25%-4.50% range and 6.9% on 4.50%-4.75%, so futures now lean toward at least two hikes by January. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank both added a further hike to their forecasts after Tuesday’s October CPI. With the cash Treasury market closed for Veterans Day, the dollar index carried the repricing: it rose 0.69% to 102.94, its highest close since at least April 15 and above the prior high of 102.59 set on October 12. Gold fell 0.96% to $3,991.52, its first close below $4,000 since November 3.

Why it matters:A week ago the market still allowed a meaningful chance that the Fed would pause in December; that option is now priced out entirely, and the debate has moved to the size and number of further moves. Equities rallied regardless, so the tightening is being absorbed for now. But a rising dollar and rising policy-rate expectations raise discount rates for long-duration growth stocks, cut the dollar value of multinationals’ overseas earnings and pressure gold, which lost its $4,000 handle. Wednesday’s holiday also leaves a gap: Treasuries have not traded since Tuesday’s CPI-driven selloff in short-dated notes, so Thursday’s reopening must catch up with a day of hawkish repricing in futures and currencies.

What to watch:Thursday’s reopening of the cash Treasury market, with the 10-year at 4.996%, and Friday’s October PPI. A move in December half-point odds above 20% would signal that markets are taking Governor Waller’s 50 bp case seriously.

3. Crude Rebounds From a Two-Month Low as Iran Says Enriched Nuclear Material Will Not Leave the Country and More Tankers Are Hit Near Hormuz

The core facts:Brent closed at $92.53, up 1.14%, and WTI at $86.39, up 0.41%, widening the spread to $6.14, a day after Brent hit its lowest level in two months. Iran’s security chief said Tehran would not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country, Reuters reported; Washington has said nuclear matters must be part of any initial negotiations to end the war. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on an “unauthorized route” through the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington Institute data show 37 ships were attacked in October, the most in any month since the war began. Separately, a drone attack set fire to Russia’s Ust-Luga oil port on the Baltic, injuring three workers. Energy (+1.49%) was the second-best sector, and Dutch TTF gas rose 2.24%.

Why it matters:Crude’s slide from about $112 at the end of October rested on hopes of a near-term deal, and Wednesday’s statement puts the nuclear question, which Washington has made a precondition, squarely in the way. “Oil prices are being supported by fading hopes of an imminent de-escalation,” said UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo, while Sparta Commodities’ June Goh noted “an increase of vessel attacks in the Gulf shipping lanes amidst uncertainty of the diplomacy talks.” LSEG Oil Research warned that even a deal would not restore flows quickly, since higher volumes “would still depend on mine clearance.” For equities the effect cuts both ways: firmer crude supports energy earnings, but it keeps fuel costs in the inflation data at the moment the Fed is weighing how fast to tighten.

What to watch:The EIA’s weekly inventory report, delayed to Thursday at 12:00 PM ET by the holiday, after American Petroleum Institute data showed a 9 million-barrel crude build; and any confirmation or denial of US-Iran contacts.

4. Nvidia’s Huang Crisis Widens: A Senate Banking Republican Calls for Him to Go, Reuters Finds a Blacklisted Chinese Military University Bought H200s, and Baird Cuts to Neutral

The core facts:Senator Kevin Cramer, a Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, told Politico late Tuesday that Jensen Huang should step down as Nvidia’s chief executive: “The potential for extortion is so tremendous that something as sensitive as Nvidia chips, I just think he’s got to go.” Early Wednesday, Reuters reported that Northwestern Polytechnical University, one of China’s “Seven Sons of National Defense” and on the US Entity List since 2001, bought two H200 chips in October for 874,700 yuan ($123,000) through a domestic reseller, Shaanxi Bosuan Network Technology, and rented H200 computing capacity through five contracts this year. A Reuters review of 26 Chinese procurement and corporate records found universities and research institutes obtaining restricted Nvidia chips or computing through domestic suppliers. Baird analyst Tristan Gerra downgraded Nvidia to Neutral from Outperform and cut his price target to $200 from $500. Nvidia said it has no reason to believe US national security or confidential information has been compromised. The shares rose 2.87% to $173.73, well behind Micron’s 11.89% and AMD’s 7.32%.

Why it matters:The affair now carries three separate risks for the market’s most important stock. Leadership: a sitting member of the committee that oversees export policy has called for the CEO’s removal. Export controls: the Reuters records show restricted chips reaching a blacklisted defence university through domestic resellers, strengthening the bipartisan case for chip-tracking requirements and tighter oversight just as the administration has been licensing some H200 sales to China case by case. Sentiment: a 60% cut to a price target signals that some analysts no longer see the issue as background noise. Nvidia’s lag on a day of 7%-12% gains elsewhere in semiconductors shows the market is already pricing a discount specific to Nvidia.

What to watch:Nvidia’s third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, November 17, and the briefing three Republican committee chairmen have requested with Huang on Wednesday, November 18.

5. Anthropic’s IPO Book Is Covered Several Times Over, Putting a Record Listing of About $90 Billion on Track at a Valuation Near $1.4 Trillion

The core facts:Anthropic’s initial public offering is oversubscribed several times over, driven by anchor-sized indications of interest, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The company is marketing about 801 million Class A shares, plus roughly 24 million sold by existing investors, at $70-$78 each, valuing it at about $1.4 trillion. Including a $26 billion placement of Class N stock to AMD, Broadcom, Google, Micron, Microsoft, Nvidia and TSMC, the deal targets about $90 billion at the top of the range, which would exceed SpaceX’s June record of about $86 billion including its over-allotment. The $1.4 trillion valuation is roughly 45% above the $965 billion of Anthropic’s June private round. Trading is expected to begin next Thursday, November 19, and Chief Executive Dario Amodei is due to hold a live-streamed event with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Friday.

Why it matters:Heavy demand at a $1.4 trillion valuation, in the same week as an AI selloff, is a direct read on how much capital public investors are still willing to commit to the sector. The report landed on the same day CoreWeave’s debt pledge steadied the AI trade. The deal also cuts two ways for listed stocks. Seven of the largest chip and cloud companies are buying in, deepening the circular ties between AI suppliers and their customers that have unsettled investors. Absorbing roughly $64 billion of new public stock, plus the placement, also draws on the same pool of growth capital that funds the megacaps. Microsoft is both an investor and a target: it has fallen two days running since Anthropic launched office tools that compete with Excel.

What to watch:Whether pricing lands above the $78 top of the range, and the first-day trade on November 19; a weak debut would test the AI rebound that began on Wednesday.

D. MODERATE-IMPACT STORIES -> TOP

6. OPEC+ Output Recovers to 97% of Pre-War Levels as October Production Jumps 2.04 Million Barrels a Day; OPEC Holds Its 2026 Demand Forecast After Six Cuts

The core facts:OPEC’s November Monthly Oil Market Report, released Wednesday, showed OPEC+ crude output rising about 2.04 million barrels per day in October to 41.23 million b/d, 97% of the 42.72 million b/d the group produced in February before the war, according to Reuters. Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped 10.563 million b/d in October, up more than 2 million b/d from September and its highest since the war began, though still below February’s 10.882 million b/d. Russian output rose after US sanctions relief and a mid-October “energy ceasefire” with Ukraine. OPEC left its 2026 world demand growth forecast unchanged at 180,000 b/d after six consecutive monthly cuts, and still expects demand to rise 2.55 million b/d in 2027 to about 108.3 million b/d.

Why it matters:The report shows that production capacity is largely back, so what keeps oil prices high is now the risk of getting barrels through Hormuz rather than a shortage of barrels. That gives crude a clear path lower once shipping normalises, which is consistent with official forecasts of Brent easing through 2027. It is also the disinflation the Fed would need to slow its tightening. Halting the run of demand downgrades suggests OPEC sees the worst of the war’s damage to consumption as priced in. For now, though, Wednesday’s rise in crude on Iranian nuclear comments shows that geopolitics still outweighs supply in setting prices.

What to watch:The IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report on Friday, for whether it confirms the OPEC+ supply rebound.

7. Bessent Says the US Aims to “De-Risk, Not Decouple” From China and Previews a Trump-Xi Meeting in Shenzhen Next Week

The core facts:Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations gala that “our objective is to de-risk, not to decouple,” and that “the United States must produce more of what we consume, while China must consume more of what it produces,” according to remarks Treasury posted on Wednesday. He said he would join President Trump in Shenzhen next week, where the two leaders will meet, ahead of a fourth encounter in Miami. He announced a new US-China dialogue on superintelligence, covering how advanced models are tested before release and a direct channel to alert each other to serious incidents. He also described a Board of Investment to handle market access and predictability for companies. The speech repeated earlier commitments: a Board of Trade to identify more favourable tariff treatment for $30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction, and Chinese purchases of at least 25 million metric tons of US soybeans and 10 million tons of coal over two years. It did not mention export controls.

Why it matters:The tone contrasts sharply with the White House’s tariff rhetoric earlier this week, and the news of a leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen next week sets a near-term catalyst for China-exposed US stocks. The timing matters for semiconductors: the meeting comes as Reuters documents restricted Nvidia chips reaching a blacklisted Chinese university, and Bessent’s silence on export controls leaves open whether chip access will be on the table. A “de-risk” framework implies managed trade in non-sensitive goods while strategic technology stays fenced off, which supports agriculture and consumer exporters more than chipmakers.

What to watch:The Trump-Xi meeting in Shenzhen next week, and whether chip export licensing or the Board of Trade’s tariff list appears in any joint statement.

8. Pfizer Lands Up to $1.5 Billion From Blackstone to Fund Its Obesity Drug Berobenatide Through 2028

The core facts:Pfizer and Blackstone Life Sciences announced after Wednesday’s close that Blackstone-managed funds will provide up to $1.5 billion to co-fund development of berobenatide, Pfizer’s investigational injectable for chronic weight management, covering development costs through 2028. In return Blackstone is eligible for milestone-based payments tied to US approval of monthly berobenatide monotherapy and to certain sales milestones. Blackstone takes no rights or ownership in the drug, and Pfizer keeps full operational control. Pfizer has 10 ongoing and planned Phase 3 trials of berobenatide, including combinations with amylin analogues, and plans more than 20 obesity-related trials in 2026. Pfizer shares closed up 0.31% at $29.45 before the announcement, valuing the company at about $168 billion.

Why it matters:Pfizer is chasing an obesity market dominated by Eli Lilly, now worth about $1.35 trillion, and a 10-trial Phase 3 programme is expensive for a company of Pfizer’s size. Outside funding of this kind moves late-stage spending off Pfizer’s own budget, protecting margins and the dividend while keeping all of the upside if the drug is approved, at the cost of milestone payments later. Large private funds stepping into drug-development risk also shows that investors see the obesity category as worth backing even from a challenger with no product on the market.

What to watch:Pfizer’s share reaction on Thursday, the first after the announcement, and the timing of the first berobenatide Phase 3 readouts.

9. Federal Judge Rules Sports Event Contracts Are Not “Swaps,” Letting New York Apply Its Gambling Law to Prediction Markets

The core facts:US District Judge Colleen McMahon in Manhattan denied a preliminary injunction sought by Ludlow Exchange, the operator of the prediction-market platform Novig, against New York’s attorney general and gaming regulators, The Block reported on Wednesday. The court held that Novig’s sports event contracts “bear more than a passing resemblance to sports betting” and are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, rejecting the argument that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction over them. New York may therefore require Novig to obtain a state gambling licence or stop listing the contracts there. Gaming lawyer Daniel Wallach said federal courts in the Second Circuit have now ruled 10 times in sports prediction-market cases, all in favour of the states.

Why it matters:The business model of sports prediction markets rests on federal pre-emption: if event contracts are swaps regulated by the CFTC, state gambling laws cannot touch them. A ruling that they are not swaps, although made at the preliminary-injunction stage, gives states a template to require licences, which would carry state taxes and restrictions. That threatens the growth case for listed firms that have built event-contract businesses, such as Robinhood and CME Group, and strengthens licensed sportsbooks. Neither stock reacted on Wednesday: Robinhood rose 4.00% and CME 2.19% in the broad rally.

What to watch:Whether Novig appeals to the Second Circuit, and whether New York moves to state-court enforcement against other platforms.

10. China Renaissance Upgrades Apple to Buy With a $425 Target; Shares Rise 2.04% as Apple Outpaces the AI Spenders

The core facts:China Renaissance analyst Jack Zhou upgraded Apple to Buy from Hold with a $425 price target, Benzinga reported on Wednesday; no rationale was published with the call. Apple rose 2.04% to $355.63 from Tuesday’s $348.51, giving it a market value of about $5.17 trillion. The target implies about 19.5% upside from Wednesday’s close. Apple’s gain came as Microsoft (-2.26%), Meta (-1.97%) and Amazon (-1.74%) fell.

Why it matters:Apple spends far less on AI data centres than Microsoft, Meta or Amazon, and on a day when investors rewarded AI suppliers and marked down the biggest AI spenders, that light-capex profile looked like an advantage. An upgrade from a China-based broker also bears on Apple’s most debated exposure: demand in China and the effect of US-China relations, which Bessent’s remarks and next week’s planned leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen bring back into focus. The call is a single upgrade from a smaller firm, so its weight lies in the direction it points rather than its size.

What to watch:Whether other brokers follow, and any China trade outcomes from next week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Shenzhen.

E. ECONOMY WATCH -> TOP

With no federal data on Veterans Day and the cash Treasury market shut, the economic story was the Fed’s reaction function hardening after a third straight hot CPI print. Chicago’s Goolsbee called the report “borderline disturbing” and Philadelphia’s Paulson backed “further gradual tightening,” while Goldman added a March hike and Deutsche Bank a January one. Fed funds futures now treat a December hike as a given, and the debate has moved to how far and how fast. Nothing in the real economy argues for waiting: ADP’s weekly pulse shows private hiring firming for a second week, and the EIA sees Brent holding near $100 through year-end. The front end has already moved, with the 2-year yield 22 bps above last Friday’s level.

F. EARNINGS WATCH -> TOP

YESTERDAY AFTER THE BELL (Markets Reacted Today)

No major earnings yesterday after the bell from companies with >$100B market cap.

TODAY BEFORE THE BELL (Markets Already Reacted)

No major earnings before the bell from companies with >$100B market cap.

TODAY AFTER THE BELL (Markets React Tomorrow)

No major earnings after the bell from companies with >$100B market cap.

WEEK AHEAD PREVIEW:

G. WHAT’S NEXT -> TOP

UPCOMING RELEASES:

KEY QUESTIONS:

H. CHART OF THE DAY -> TOP

Market Intelligence Brief (MIB) Ver. 20.05
For professional investors only. Not investment advice.

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