China’s CXMT reported next-generation DRAM progress and memory stocks slid: Sandisk fell 5.97% and Micron 3.88% as the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.71% while the Dow gained 0.38%. A deadly missile strike on Riyadh’s airport lifted Brent 1.35% to $106.13. Cleveland Fed’s Hammack says more restriction is needed. Meta jumped 3.38% on new Muse AI models. JPMorgan and Goldman underwrote just $1.3 billion of a $5 billion AI cloud loan. September CPI lands Wednesday, expected at 3.7% year over year.
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MIB Daily: A China DRAM Scare Sank Memory Stocks as Meta Rallied on AI It Can Sell, a Riyadh Strike Lifted Brent to $106, and Hammack Wants More Restriction Before Wednesday’s CPI
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MIB Daily: The S&P 500’s 7,800 Record Runs on AI as the Fed Calls It an Inflation Shock, Google’s Nuclear Deal Lifts Constellation 12% While Chip Equipment Slides, and $101 Brent Squeezes Freight Before the Minutes
The S&P 500 topped 7,800 for its first record close since August (+0.58%), even with the 10-year at 5.274%. Constellation Energy jumped 12.25% on a 20-year Google nuclear deal, lifting Utilities 2.79%. Marvell rose 5.81% after setting a $70-90B fiscal 2031 revenue goal. Fed’s Daly named AI demand alongside oil and tariffs as shocks that could force more hikes if they compound. The August trade deficit widened to $105.6B. Skydance began trading after closing its Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced the Fed, Bonds Priced the Bill, as the Nasdaq Hit a Record With the 10-Year at 5.315%, Services Prices at a 2022 High and a 2% Oil Drop the Only Inflation Relief Before This Week’s Auctions
Megacap tech carried the Nasdaq to a record close (+1.05%) and Nvidia to its own record (+2.12%) as October Fed-hike odds fell to 24%. Bonds dissented: the 10-year rose to 5.315%, its highest close in over two decades per Reuters. ISM’s services prices index climbed to 74.0, highest since July 2022. Crude fell about 2% on recovering Mideast exports despite weekend Houthi strikes on Aramco. Schneider to buy PTC for $23.7B; PTC +33%. Bolsonaro upset lifts Petrobras ADRs 11.5%.
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MIB Daily: The Bond Market Is Doing the Fed’s Job, the 10-Year Hits 5.225% and the 7-Year Clears at a 1993 High as Brent Tops $107, and Only Meta Holds the Line While Utilities and Housing Pay
The 10-year jumped 10.9 bps to 5.225%, its highest since 2007, and the 7-year auction cleared at the highest yield since 1993. Brent surged 4.25% to $107.46 on an Iranian threat to widen the war and Houthi missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu terminal. The Fed’s Williams called another hike by year-end “reasonable.” META +4.50% held the S&P 500 flat as eight of 11 sectors fell. Anthropic committed $11.6B to Akamai’s cloud. ORCL -3.47% on a Project Jupiter force-majeure notice.
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MIB Daily: Oil’s 5% Hormuz shock reprices inflation risk as chipmakers tap $500B in outside AI financing and a second chokepoint breaks the rerouting hedge — does September turn stagflationary after Wednesday’s CPI?
Oil ripped 5.2% after Iran demanded the US blockade lift before Hormuz reopens — Energy +3.61%, the S&P still closed flat. Yields and VIX rose together: an inflation scare, not a growth one, two days before CPI. Cleveland’s Hammack wants more than one hike. Chips led the downside — Nvidia -2.87% on $500B of financing, Intel -4.04% on a $15B raise — while TSMC’s July revenue hit a record. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike set records. Vertex jumped 6% on a rival’s failure.
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MIB Daily: Twin Gulf Chokepoints Push Gas Past $4 as the Fed Holds the Line — AMD (+5%) Pulls Away From Oracle’s Cost Overruns (-4%)
Iran’s IRGC torched two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and declared it sealed — then Yemen’s Houthis opened a second front, blockading Saudi Arabia’s export lifeline. Gasoline just crossed $4/gallon, landing days before Fed Chair Warsh’s “no tolerance” inflation stance faces its July 28-29 test. A judge blocked Paramount Skydance’s $110B Warner Bros. Discovery deal. AMD surged 5% on a new Azure AI mega-deal; Oracle sank another 4% on data-center cost overruns. Stocks fell a third day, though chips rebounded.
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