Fed minutes show most officials expect another hike by year-end and record market concern that AI borrowing is lifting term premiums. The 10-year yield touched a 24-year intraday high of 5.364% before a strong $39B auction pulled it back. IEA members agreed to speed up emergency oil releases, and WTI settled down $1.16 despite a crude draw. Deere fell 3.8% on a new FTC-USDA farm-equipment inquiry. Platinum dropped 4.1% as the dollar posted its highest close in 122 sessions.
Tag Archives | 10-Year Treasury
MIB Daily: AI Is Now Competing With Treasuries for Money, as SpaceX’s $40B Debt Plan and a Split Fed Lift the 10-Year to a 24-Year High and Small Caps Pay Ahead of Thursday’s 30-Year Auction
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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced the Fed, Bonds Priced the Bill, as the Nasdaq Hit a Record With the 10-Year at 5.315%, Services Prices at a 2022 High and a 2% Oil Drop the Only Inflation Relief Before This Week’s Auctions
Megacap tech carried the Nasdaq to a record close (+1.05%) and Nvidia to its own record (+2.12%) as October Fed-hike odds fell to 24%. Bonds dissented: the 10-year rose to 5.315%, its highest close in over two decades per Reuters. ISM’s services prices index climbed to 74.0, highest since July 2022. Crude fell about 2% on recovering Mideast exports despite weekend Houthi strikes on Aramco. Schneider to buy PTC for $23.7B; PTC +33%. Bolsonaro upset lifts Petrobras ADRs 11.5%.
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MIB Weekly: Hike Odds Collapsed and Yields Rose Anyway, a 5.34% 10-Year Sank Gold and Banks Despite Hormuz Strikes, as Chip Equipment Led and Anthropic’s $2T IPO Tested Who Funds AI
A global long-bond rout drove the week: the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% Thursday, its highest since 2002, and finished 10.9 bps higher even as soft payrolls and a cooler PCE cut October Fed-hike odds to about 23%. Chip equipment carried the Nasdaq 100 to a record (AMAT +11.35%, LRCX +10.24%, KLAC +10.09%) while the S&P 500 and Dow fell. Gold lost 3.48% despite repeated Hormuz ship strikes.
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MIB Daily: The 29K Jobs Miss Moved the Date, Not the Destination, as the Nasdaq 100 Hit a Record, a 5.28% 10-Year Kept Duration Exposed and G7 Diesel Barrels Met a Sixth Hormuz Strike
September payrolls rose 29,000 against roughly 90,000 expected, unemployment hit 4.2% and October hike odds sank to about 23%. Stocks cheered: S&P 500 +0.73%, Nasdaq 100 at a record. Bonds didn’t, with the 2-year up 4.0 bps after Dallas Fed’s Logan called for 50 bps or more of further hikes. The G7 agreed a 100 million-barrel reserve release and WTI fell 1.9%, but a sixth vessel since Sunday was struck in Hormuz. TSLA rose 4.65% on a delivery beat.
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MIB Daily: Brent Tops $102 on China’s Fuel-Export Halt and the 10-Year Hits 5.34%, Long Yields Tighten for the Fed as Banks and Junk Credit Strain, and a $2 Trillion Anthropic IPO Tests AI Leadership
Brent jumped 4.3% to $102.22 as Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports. The 10-year yield touched 5.34% intraday, its highest since 2002, then closed down 4.8 bps; UK 30-year gilts topped 6%. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson called energy “the predominant factor” in rising inflation as ISM’s prices gauge leapt to 77.9. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.28% and junk CDS widened to April levels. Anthropic eyes a November IPO at up to $2 trillion.
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MIB Daily: The Bond Market Is Doing the Fed’s Hiking, a 5.292% 10-Year Defies Cooler PCE as Tech Stands Alone, Banks and Pharma Get New Rules and Crude’s September Surge Tests the Pause Before Friday’s Payrolls
A cooler August PCE cut October hike odds to about 37% from 51%, and Goldman pushed its next-hike call to December. Bonds balked: the 10-year rose 5.0 bps to 5.292%, highest since April 2002 per Investing.com, and 30-year mortgage rates hit 7.30%. A late selloff left only the Nasdaq 100 higher. The Fed finalized a stress-test overhaul over Barr’s dissent, CMS tied Part B drug rebates to international prices, and Amazon signed a 20-year nuclear deal with Constellation.
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MIB Daily: Iran’s Oil Shock Now Runs Through the 10-Year at 5.241%, Gold Fails as the Hedge, META Drops 4.79% on an OpenAI Rival, and Hot Factory Costs Make Wednesday’s PCE the October Hike Test
Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz roadmap, and the damage ran through bonds: the 10-year closed at 5.241%, topping last week’s high, and the S&P 500 fell 0.77%. Fed Governor Cook said the labor market appears able to handle higher rates. Gold sank 4.02% and silver 5.83%. META fell 4.79% on a reported rival OpenAI agent, while NVDA rose 1.68% on a $150B buyback boost. Boeing slid about 6% as the FAA held up 737 MAX 10 certification.
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MIB Daily: The 10-Year Hit 5.11%, Its Highest Since 2007, as a Hot PMI Turned Good News Into Rate Risk and Brent Topped $100, Leaving Stocks With No Bond Hedge and Small Caps and Utilities Hit Hardest
The 10-year yield jumped 16.2 bps to 5.110%, highest since June 2007, after a hot flash PMI (58.4) and a weak 5-year auction. Stocks fell with bonds: S&P 500 -0.75%, Russell 2000 -1.77%. Fed’s Barr: further adjustments “likely to be needed”; October hike odds near 73%. Brent surged 4.43% back above $100 on Iran’s UN defiance despite a US crude build. McDonald’s sank 4.81% on flat-traffic guidance. Bessent is “open” to extending the China truce before Thursday’s Xi summit.
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MIB Weekly: The Fed Hiked Into a Shock It Can’t Fix, the 10-Year Closed Above 5% and Diesel Hit a Record $6.45 as Banks and AI Borrowers Paid and Memory Makers Won, With a Second Hike in October Still Open
MIB WEEKLY DIGEST Week of Sep 14–18, 2026 The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023 and signalled more, sending the 2-year yield up 12.4 bps and the 10-year to its first closes above 5% before a Friday retreat to 4.998%. The Nasdaq 100 (+0.94%) was the only major index higher as an AI-safety essay lifted CrowdStrike 14.95% on the week while chip equipment crashed and then recovered most of the loss. Bank of America’s fee warning […]
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MIB: Yields Won Monday at 4.62% — $66.8B Utility AI Bet, $112 Brent; Rotate Into Energy and Financials, Exit REITs and Long-Tech
NextEra acquires Dominion Energy in a $66.8B deal to lock in AI data center power demand across Northern Virginia (D +9.4%, NEE -4.6%). The 10-year held a 52-week high at 4.623%, driving a 45% probability of a December rate hike with 2026 cuts fully priced out. Trump postponed the Iran strike; Brent surged +2.68% to $112 as Hormuz supply destruction continues. Seagate’s CEO warned AI capacity is years away — MU -6%, AMAT -5.3% as SOX slides pre-NVDA May 20.
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MIB: Stagflation Confirmed, $105 Oil, China Stalled — Warsh Has No Good Move; REITs, Chips, & Long-Tech Now Lose
Trump-Xi Day 2: zero binding deals on tariffs, semiconductors, or Taiwan; S&P -1.24%, 10Y +14 bps to 4.60%, stagflation pricing confirmed. WTI +4.26% to $105.48 on Hormuz collapse — ~10% weekly gain compounds the tariff-inflation stack. Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair with >50% 2026 rate-hike odds; June 16 FOMC is his first test. Chip leaders MU, INTC, AMD down 5–7% on NVDA pre-positioning and unresolved China export overhang. Ackman disclosed MSFT at 21x, exited GOOGL; MSFT +3.05% vs. Nasdaq -1.54%.
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