CoreWeave’s beat-and-raise revived the AI-hardware trade: the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.28% as Micron (+11.89%) and Dell (+11.75%) surged, while Microsoft, Meta and Amazon fell. Futures price a December hike as certain and lean toward a second by January, sending the dollar to its highest close since at least April 15. Brent rose 1.14% as Iran refused to export enriched material. Nvidia lagged as a Senate Republican urged Huang to go. Anthropic’s IPO book is oversubscribed at a $1.4 trillion valuation.
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MIB Daily: Markets Paid the AI Builders and Sold the Spenders as Micron Jumped 11.9%, Futures Locked In a December Hike, Iran Kept Brent Bid, and Treasuries Reopen Thursday to Deliver Their Verdict
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MIB Daily: Hot CPI Moved the Fed From Whether to How Fast, the 2-Year Jumped 18.2 bps as Nvidia Fell 5.47% on a $7.5B China Report, Tariffs Keep Goods Prices Hot and Only Oil Below $90 Offers Relief
Hot October CPI moved the Fed debate from whether to how fast: core rose 0.3% for a third month, meeting Waller’s half-point condition, while the 2-year jumped 18.2 bps and the 10-year briefly retook 5%. Logan wants at least two more hikes. Nvidia sank 5.47% on a report that Huang’s relationship aided at least $7.5B of chip shipments to Chinese firms. Anthropic set a $70-$78 IPO range valuing it at up to about $1.4T. Brent briefly broke below $90.
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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced Relief, Bonds Priced a Hike, as AMD Jumped 13.26% and Nvidia Fell 4.27% on Its CEO Probe, With December Hike Odds at 84% and Households Strained Before Tuesday’s CPI
Chips led a broad rebound: the S&P 500 rose 2.35% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.40% as AMD jumped 13.26% on an Oppenheimer upgrade. Nvidia fell 4.27% as its board probes whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by foreign intelligence. Brent slid 6.21% after Trump called new Iran strikes “highly unlikely.” Bonds balked: 2-year yields rose 5.4 bps and December hike odds climbed to about 84% before Tuesday’s CPI. Washington and Beijing extended their trade truce to January 10, 2027.
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MIB Daily: Short-Covering Chip Bounce Lifts AMD 11% as 165,000 Jobs Push December Hike Odds to 78%, Microsoft Cools on Oracle Compute and Brent Has Its Biggest Weekly Drop Since 2020, Leaving AI Hardware Exposed to CPI
Chips led a narrow rebound from Thursday’s AI rout: AMD jumped 11.04% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.35%; the Dow fell 0.46%. October payrolls rose 165,000, far above forecasts, lifting CME December hike odds to 78% as 2-year yields rose 4.8 bps. Fed’s Daly expects policy will have to tighten further. Brent headed for its largest weekly drop since 2020 on US-Iran talks. Microsoft is reportedly winding down Oracle compute rentals. Tesla (+4.23%) will wind down Cybertruck output for Cybercab.
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MIB: Summit Override — S&P and Nasdaq ATH Despite PPI 6.0%, Warsh Confirmed, 30-Year Clears 5%
S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high (7,444) as the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing drove AI and semiconductor stocks to records — Nvidia reached $5.5T market cap and Trump confirmed discussing Blackwell chip exports with Xi — even as April PPI printed +6.0% YoY, the hottest since December 2022. Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chair 54-45, inheriting a policy trap. The 30-year Treasury crossed 5.046% at auction. The IEA warned of the largest oil supply deficit in history at 8.5 mb/day.
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MIB: Stagflation Confirmed — 92K Jobs Vanish, WTI Hits $88, and Trump Demands Iran’s Unconditional Surrender
Feb payrolls -92K (S&P -1.3%), worst miss in years — unemployment jumped to 4.4%. Trump demands Iran ‘unconditional surrender’; WTI surged to $88 as Hormuz stays shut (Day 7). GDPNow crashed to 2.1% from 3.0% in four days. MRVL +23.2% on AI data center blowout. Fed cuts repriced to July; markets now price two 2026 cuts.
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