S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high (7,444) as the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing drove AI and semiconductor stocks to records — Nvidia reached $5.5T market cap and Trump confirmed discussing Blackwell chip exports with Xi — even as April PPI printed +6.0% YoY, the hottest since December 2022. Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chair 54-45, inheriting a policy trap. The 30-year Treasury crossed 5.046% at auction. The IEA warned of the largest oil supply deficit in history at 8.5 mb/day.
Tag Archives | OPEC+
MIB: Summit Override — S&P and Nasdaq ATH Despite PPI 6.0%, Warsh Confirmed, 30-Year Clears 5%
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MIB: Hormuz Collapse + Chip Rally + Goldman’s Hawkish Pivot — Three Forces Reshaping the 2026 Portfolio
WTI surged 3.1% to $98.40 as Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire ‘on life support’ — Aramco warns Hormuz disruption could extend to year-end. A 90-day US-China tariff pause sent QCOM +8.4% to an ATH ahead of the Trump-Xi Beijing summit May 13–15. Goldman pushed its first Fed cut to December 2026, assigning 44% odds to a hike by April 2027. CPI tomorrow (+3.7% exp.) is the week’s pivot. Lower-income consumers are in discretionary contraction; UMich sentiment is at a 74-year low.
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MIB Digest: Hormuz Stagflation, Nasdaq 25K, and the Week AI Stopped Taking Capex on Faith
The Strait of Hormuz blockade sent WTI +7.94% and gasoline to a 4-year high of $4.30/gal, while the FOMC’s historic 8-4 split collapsed rate-cut probability from 59% to ~22.5% — stagflation confirmed as the Fed’s base-case bind. Alphabet’s Cloud +63% YoY drove Nasdaq above 25,000 for the first time; Meta’s $145B capex raise was punished -8.65% — the week AI demanded proof of ROI. Eli Lilly: Mounjaro $8.66B (+125% YoY), guidance raised to $82–85B.
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MIB: Record Nasdaq, Collapsing Breadth — Apple Hides a Market That’s Quietly Breaking Down
Apple Q2 beat drove AAPL +3.24% and Nasdaq 100 to a record, but 8 of 11 sectors fell and VIX rose — mega-cap AI, not a broad advance. UAE exited OPEC+ after 60 years, threatening cartel discipline while WTI fell 2.45%. Trump imposed 25% EU auto tariffs violating the 2025 framework; EU retaliation across agriculture and tech is unpriced. ISM Prices hit 84.6% while Manufacturing Employment fell to 46.4% — stagflation crystallizing. Pentagon cleared eight companies for classified AI networks; ORCL +6.47%.
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MIB: Stagflation Trap — Fed Splits 8-4, WTI +8%, GDPNow 1.2%, Mag-4 Beats Fail to Lift the Tape
Fed holds 3.50–3.75% in historic 8-4 split as hawkish dissenters signal removal of easing bias; Trump locks in months-long Iran blockade as WTI surges 8.3% to $108/bbl and US gas hits 4-year high of $4.23/gal; UAE quits OPEC effective May 1; Atlanta Fed finalizes Q1 GDPNow at 1.2%, 110 bps below 2.3% consensus ahead of Thursday’s advance GDP + Core PCE release.
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MIB: Triple Shock — OpenAI Revenue Miss, UAE Exits OPEC, and Trump Rejects Iran’s Hormuz Deal Ahead of $700B AI Earnings Week
OpenAI missed revenue and user targets (WSJ), gutting AI chip stocks — AMAT -5.87%, KLAC -4.79%, AVGO -4.39%; Nasdaq -1.01%. UAE quit OPEC after 58 years, effective May 1. Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz reopening proposal — Brent hit $112.70 intraday, US gas $4.18/gal (highest since Aug 2022). Powell’s final FOMC opened Tuesday. Coca-Cola (+3.86%), Visa, and Starbucks all beat and raised guidance. GOOGL/MSFT/META Wednesday — $700B AI capex on trial.
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MIB: $4 Gas, $113 Oil, and a Tuesday Deadline — Iran War Tax Hits Main Street as CPI Bomb Looms
Iran ceasefire talks collapse; Trump’s Tuesday 8pm deadline threatens escalation (WTI $112.87/bbl). March CPI due Friday: +1% MoM forecast, sharpest spike since 2022. Tesla Q1 delivers 358K vs. 365K expected, 50K vehicles unsold (TSLA -2.15%); JPMorgan’s $145 target stands. Trump signs 100% pharma tariffs on branded drug imports. S&P 500 +0.45% on ceasefire hope; VIX elevated at 24.17. Gas $4.11/gallon — up 38% since war began.
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