A global long-bond rout drove the week: the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% Thursday, its highest since 2002, and finished 10.9 bps higher even as soft payrolls and a cooler PCE cut October Fed-hike odds to about 23%. Chip equipment carried the Nasdaq 100 to a record (AMAT +11.35%, LRCX +10.24%, KLAC +10.09%) while the S&P 500 and Dow fell. Gold lost 3.48% despite repeated Hormuz ship strikes.
Archive | October, 2026
MIB Weekly: Hike Odds Collapsed and Yields Rose Anyway, a 5.34% 10-Year Sank Gold and Banks Despite Hormuz Strikes, as Chip Equipment Led and Anthropic’s $2T IPO Tested Who Funds AI
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MIB Daily: The 29K Jobs Miss Moved the Date, Not the Destination, as the Nasdaq 100 Hit a Record, a 5.28% 10-Year Kept Duration Exposed and G7 Diesel Barrels Met a Sixth Hormuz Strike
September payrolls rose 29,000 against roughly 90,000 expected, unemployment hit 4.2% and October hike odds sank to about 23%. Stocks cheered: S&P 500 +0.73%, Nasdaq 100 at a record. Bonds didn’t, with the 2-year up 4.0 bps after Dallas Fed’s Logan called for 50 bps or more of further hikes. The G7 agreed a 100 million-barrel reserve release and WTI fell 1.9%, but a sixth vessel since Sunday was struck in Hormuz. TSLA rose 4.65% on a delivery beat.
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MIB Daily: Brent Tops $102 on China’s Fuel-Export Halt and the 10-Year Hits 5.34%, Long Yields Tighten for the Fed as Banks and Junk Credit Strain, and a $2 Trillion Anthropic IPO Tests AI Leadership
Brent jumped 4.3% to $102.22 as Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports. The 10-year yield touched 5.34% intraday, its highest since 2002, then closed down 4.8 bps; UK 30-year gilts topped 6%. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson called energy “the predominant factor” in rising inflation as ISM’s prices gauge leapt to 77.9. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.28% and junk CDS widened to April levels. Anthropic eyes a November IPO at up to $2 trillion.
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