About Dwaine Van Vuuren

Dwaine has a Bachelor of Science honors degree and is a full-time trader and investor. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT into a company used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms and financial advisers around the world.
Author Archive | Dwaine Van Vuuren

Recession: Just How Much Warning Is Useful Anyway?

Download article as PDF At the end of September 2011, ECRI made a recession call which left the impression recession was imminent. With a track record like theirs there was very little challenging argument. Two days later, the S&P-500 bottomed and rose and incredible 22% since. In December 2011, ECRI “dialled down” their call to […]

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Further Improving the Use of the ECRI WLI (Part-II)

Download article as PDF This article was co-authored with Georg Vrba and first appeared on the popular Advisor Perspectives web site on 17 January 2012 In our last article on using the ECRI WLI, we described how best to use the growth figure of the Economic  Cycle Research Institute’s Weekly Leading Index (WLI) to predict recessions,  […]

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Using the ECRI WLI to Flag Recessions (Part-I)

Download article as PDF In September 2011, the Economic Cycle Research Institute  proclaimed a new U.S recession would begin sometime in the coming year. ECRI  based its prediction on a host of its own internal long-leading indexes,  together with its widely followed weekly leading index (WLI). I do not wish to debate the merits of […]

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