About RecessionALERT

Dwaine has a Bachelor of Science honors degree and is a full-time trader and investor. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT into a company used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms and financial advisers around the world.
Author Archive | RecessionALERT

A Recession Fear Indicator

An analysis of Google global search volume for the term “recession” reveals a promising new recession indicator that nailed the official NBER start of the 2008 great recession to within 2 week lag of its peak. It is also interesting to note the spike in mid-to-late August 2011 (around the time the SP-500 bottom that […]

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Recession: Just How Much Warning Is Useful Anyway?

At the end of September 2011, ECRI made a recession call which left the impression recession was imminent. With a track record like theirs there was very little challenging argument. Two days later, the S&P-500 bottomed and rose and incredible 22% since. In December 2011, ECRI “dialled down” their call to “within 9 months”. Just […]

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Further Improving the Use of the ECRI WLI (Part-II)

This article was co-authored with Georg Vrba and first appeared on the popular Advisor Perspectives web site on 17 January 2012 In our last article on using the ECRI WLI, we described how best to use the growth figure of the Economic  Cycle Research Institute’s Weekly Leading Index (WLI) to predict recessions,  but we also highlighted […]

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Using the ECRI WLI to Flag Recessions (Part-I)

In September 2011, the Economic Cycle Research Institute  proclaimed a new U.S recession would begin sometime in the coming year. ECRI  based its prediction on a host of its own internal long-leading indexes,  together with its widely followed weekly leading index (WLI). I do not wish to debate the merits of ECRI’s recession call  here […]

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