A new monthly leading US index

By Dwaine Van Vuuren on March 3, 2016 in Research Papers

Many monthly leading indices published for the U.S have about 10 indicator components, and we wanted one that had at least double this. The components of the new index are all monthly time series and are as follows:

01.Labor Market Composite (19 indicators)
02.Housing Market Composite (6 indicators)
03.Enhanced Yield Curve (EYC)
04.Money Supply Aggregate
05.Stock Market
06.Margin Debt
07.Treasury/Corporate Bond market
08.Inventories & Sales
09.Sales of heavy duty trucks
10.Manufacturing : Durable Goods
11.Manufacturing : Weekly Overtime hours
12.Manufacturing : Business Activity Changes
13.Consumer Sentiment
14.Measurement of tightening loan standards
15.Freight Shipments & Expenditures
16.EYC%-CPI% +Unemployment rate%
17. Credit Market Index (35 indicators)
18. Percentage of US States with rising unemployment
19.Initial and Continuing Claims
20.Lumber & Construction materials sales
21. Mortgage Backed Securities held by banks

The far broader, more timely index offers much more comfort that nothing will be missed.

This is what the new model is showing up to and including January 2016:

About Dwaine Van Vuuren

Dwaine has a Bachelor of Science honors degree and is a full-time trader and investor. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT into a company used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms and financial advisers around the world.

View all posts by Dwaine Van Vuuren →

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