Many monthly leading indices published for the U.S have about 10 indicator components, and we wanted one that had at least double this. The components of the new index are all monthly time series and are as follows:
01.Labor Market Composite (19 indicators)
02.Housing Market Composite (6 indicators)
03.Enhanced Yield Curve (EYC)
04.Money Supply Aggregate
05.Stock Market
06.Margin Debt
07.Treasury/Corporate Bond market
08.Inventories & Sales
09.Sales of heavy duty trucks
10.Manufacturing : Durable Goods
11.Manufacturing : Weekly Overtime hours
12.Manufacturing : Business Activity Changes
13.Consumer Sentiment
14.Measurement of tightening loan standards
15.Freight Shipments & Expenditures
16.EYC%-CPI% +Unemployment rate%
17. Credit Market Index (35 indicators)
18. Percentage of US States with rising unemployment
19.Initial and Continuing Claims
20.Lumber & Construction materials sales
21. Mortgage Backed Securities held by banks
The far broader, more timely index offers much more comfort that nothing will be missed.
This is what the new model is showing up to and including January 2016:
The high number of components used make the USMLI one of the most comprehensive US leading indexes published today. This is our most popular monthly download among institutional clients. A sample monthly report is shown below:
