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25 most important US economic indicators animated in 1 minute

By RecessionALERT on July 26, 2017 in Reflections

Here’s something fun we played with after just compiling our June Long leading US Index report for our subscribers

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U.S Economy remains vulnerable

By RecessionALERT on September 21, 2016 in Reflections

It is interesting to see the recent re-appearance of articles relating to flashing warning signals of recession (see here and here and here) It is true that some genuinely troubling signals are starting to make themselves known. Let’s look at some of them. Heavy Duty Truck sales, a reliable long-leading indicator for US recession, has recently tanked: Growth in Total Freight Shipments and Revenues has been negative since early 2015:: The Inventory-to-Sales ratio was one of the first trouble spots […]

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U.S Economy most vulnerable to any shock since 2008

By RecessionALERT on June 24, 2016 in Reflections

The #Brexit vote caught the consensus view off-guard and stock markets, currencies and commodity prices have made large responses. This may be bringing up thoughts if Brexit could be the external shock that marks the decent of the U.S economy. Whilst we will not entertain making predictions on this complex matter, we can however state that the U.S economy is the most vulnerable it has ever been since the 2008 financial crises. This is at least according to our composite […]

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Global Slowdown – Does it affect the U.S?

By RecessionALERT on May 6, 2015 in Research Papers

There is no question that the Global Economy is languishing. Now, with weakness in US economic data starting to filter through, the big question that arises is if the U.S will be dragged down by the global economy. The U.S is a very insular economy and whilst there can be no doubt that global economic slowdowns do have an effect on the U.S economy, we show that the correlation between global recessions and U.S recessions is surprisingly low. EXHIBIT-A : Global […]

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.