May NFP 172K — double consensus — pushed Fed hike odds above 50% for the first time in 2026, snapping the S&P’s nine-week winning streak on its worst day since October as Computex’s AI semiconductor euphoria reversed simultaneously. The Iran arc ran all five sessions — WTI peaking at $96 on US strikes against Qeshm Island before retreating to $90.24 — keeping PCE elevated entering Warsh’s June 16-17 inaugural FOMC, where the rate-regime inflection now enters blackout locked in.
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MIB Weekly: NFP 172K Rate-Shocked the AI Bull Thesis — 53% Hike Odds, $1.77T SpaceX Debuts June 12, and Financials Outperform Semis
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MIB Daily: MRVL +33%, S&P 7,600 on Huang’s Computex Crown — Hammack’s Hike Signal Makes Friday’s NFP the Market’s Next Binary
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang named Marvell “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex — MRVL +33%, chip equipment up 5-7%, S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time. Alphabet’s $80B equity offering to fund AI capex sent GOOGL -4%; Berkshire took a $10B stake. FTC broadened antitrust probe into Microsoft’s cloud/AI bundling (MSFT -4%). JOLTS April surged 731K above consensus as Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warned a rate hike “may soon be appropriate,” pushing 2026 hike odds to 34% with WTI above $93.
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MIB Daily: NVDA Built the 7,600 Record, Iran Is Building the Unwind — WTI at $92 Makes Warsh’s June 16-17 Debut a Rate-Hike Decision
Iran suspended ceasefire talks — WTI +5.5% to $92.18 adds ~35 bps to PCE at 3.8%, complicating Warsh’s June 16-17 FOMC debut. NVDA’s RTX Spark detonated enterprise tech (DELL +10.7%, ORCL +9.9%, IBM +7.6%) while QCOM -8.78% and INTC -4.69% paid the AI-transition toll. S&P crossed 7,600 on a 9-of-11-sector red session as ISM Manufacturing hit a 4-year high of 54.0%. Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 at $965B valuation. Berkshire acquired Taylor Morrison for $6.8B at a 24% premium.
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MIB: Yields Won Monday at 4.62% — $66.8B Utility AI Bet, $112 Brent; Rotate Into Energy and Financials, Exit REITs and Long-Tech
NextEra acquires Dominion Energy in a $66.8B deal to lock in AI data center power demand across Northern Virginia (D +9.4%, NEE -4.6%). The 10-year held a 52-week high at 4.623%, driving a 45% probability of a December rate hike with 2026 cuts fully priced out. Trump postponed the Iran strike; Brent surged +2.68% to $112 as Hormuz supply destruction continues. Seagate’s CEO warned AI capacity is years away — MU -6%, AMAT -5.3% as SOX slides pre-NVDA May 20.
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MIB: Stagflation Flush — Oil $105, DJTA –4.82%, Spirit Liquidated, Williams Kills 2026 Cuts
Iran escalated Monday — UAE activated missile defenses, Trump rejected Tehran’s 14-point proposal — driving WTI to $105/bbl and a 10-of-11-sector S&P selloff. Amazon’s Supply Chain Services launch cratered UPS –10% and FedEx –9%, applying the AWS playbook to logistics. Spirit Airlines liquidated — first major US carrier collapse in 25 years — after $4.51/gallon jet fuel killed a $500M federal rescue. NY Fed’s Williams raised 2026 inflation to 3%, signaling no cuts; the SLOOS confirmed C&I tightening across all firm sizes.
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