MIB: PCE Re-Accelerates, Consumer Confidence Craters, and Nvidia Defies the Macro

• Nvidia (NVDA) Q4 blowout after the bell: EPS $1.62 vs $1.53 est., Rev $68.1B vs $66.2B est., Q1 guided to $78B vs $72.8B est. — shares +6% after-hours; market reaction opens Thursday

• December 2025 Core PCE: 3.0% YoY (BEA, released Feb. 20) — re-accelerated from 2.8% in November; Fed’s preferred inflation gauge moving in the wrong direction, eliminating any realistic H1 rate cut

• First Solar (FSLR) -18%: Q4 EPS miss and catastrophic FY26 revenue guidance of $4.9-5.2B vs $5.6B est. on tariff cost uncertainty

• Consumer Confidence fell to 91.2 in February; Expectations sub-index below 80 — historically a recession precursor; Silver surged +3.4% to $89.95/oz

• Trump SOTU: Claimed economy “roaring” and inflation “plummeting”; economists warned SCOTUS tariff reversal will not lower consumer prices; core PCE remains at 3.0%

• FactSet Q4 scorecard: 74% of S&P 500 reported; EPS beat rate 74% (below 78% five-year avg); blended earnings growth +13.2% YoY

1. Nvidia vs. the Macro — Nvidia’s $78B Q1 guidance — nearly double year-ago revenue — may reset AI optimism and buy markets temporary relief from the stagflationary backdrop building beneath the surface. Thursday’s session is a referendum on whether one company’s hyper-growth can override broad economic deceleration.

2. Stagflation Signals Accumulating — Core PCE at 3.0%, Flash PMI showing rising input costs with slowing output, consumer confidence at recession-warning levels, and GDP at 1.4% create a toxic mix that traps the Fed between inflation persistence and growth deceleration. The classic policy toolkit provides no clean answer.

3. Political Narrative vs. Hard Data — Trump’s SOTU claimed economic strength that hard data does not fully support. The widening gap between political messaging and economic indicators (GDP, confidence, PCE, PMI) will intensify policy uncertainty heading into March’s key data releases — particularly NFP and CPI.

1. Trump State of the Union: “Roaring Economy” and “Plummeting Inflation” Claims Face Hard Data Scrutiny

The core facts:President Trump delivered his State of the Union address Tuesday evening, claiming the economy is “roaring,” inflation is “plummeting,” and defending tariffs as essential to restoring American manufacturing. CBS/YouGov snap polling found only 39% of Americans approved of his handling of the economy. Trump cited 800,000 new jobs since January 20, but economists noted the figure reflects pre-administration labor market trends. He signaled no tariff retreat and touted DOGE-driven spending cuts as transformational.

Why it matters:The SOTU hardened the policy trajectory at a moment of maximum economic ambiguity. Markets now face a prolonged mismatch between presidential messaging and hard data: Q4 GDP came in at 1.4%, core PCE remains at 3.0%, and consumer confidence is at 91.2. Policy-sensitive sectors — clean energy, defense, healthcare, and financials — face elevated uncertainty as Congressional budget battles and reconciliation markup proceed. The deficit spending plans outlined in the address may keep a floor under Treasury yields regardless of what the Fed does.

What to watch:Congressional response to SOTU budget proposals and reconciliation timeline (expected March–April); February NFP (Mar. 6) will be the first jobs report under full DOGE employment reduction — a key data point either validating or contradicting the President’s labor market claims.

2. December 2025 Core PCE Re-Accelerates to 3.0% — Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Moving in the Wrong Direction

The core facts:The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported December 2025 Personal Consumption Expenditures data on Feb. 20. Core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which excludes food and energy — rose to 3.0% year-over-year, up from 2.8% in November and above the 2.9% consensus. Headline PCE also came in at 2.9% YoY. Month-over-month, core PCE rose 0.3% — the third consecutive month at that pace, indicating price re-acceleration rather than a one-month blip.

Why it matters:Core PCE at 3.0% is 100 basis points above the Fed’s 2% target and the highest reading in several months — moving in the wrong direction as the Fed debates its next move. The Fed has explicitly conditioned rate cuts on “sustained progress” toward 2%; December’s data is the opposite of that. Combined with Q4 GDP at 1.4% (reported in late January), the inflation-growth combination is textbook stagflation — too hot to cut, too slow to hike — leaving the Fed effectively paralyzed. Markets are now pricing no Fed cuts before Q4 2026 at the earliest.

What to watch:January PCE due March 13, 2026 — a third consecutive month at or above 0.3% MoM core PCE would confirm re-acceleration and likely cause a meaningful re-pricing of rate expectations; February CPI (March 12) is the first read on whether the trend is continuing.

3. Silver Surges 3.4% to $89.95/oz — Safe-Haven Bid and Industrial Demand Drive Near-Record Prices

The core facts:Silver futures surged 3.4% to $89.95/oz, the strongest single-session gain in months. The move was driven by a convergence of safe-haven demand (echoing Monday’s “Sell America” rotation), industrial metals buying tied to AI and data center infrastructure buildout (silver is critical for electronics and solar panels), and short-covering by funds caught wrong-footed. The gold-silver ratio compressed to approximately 57:1 — silver has been outpacing gold’s recent gains.

Why it matters:Silver’s dual role as both monetary safe-haven and industrial commodity creates a powerful dual signal: investors are simultaneously hedging macro risks and betting on accelerating AI infrastructure demand. For equities, the move directly benefits silver miners and provides a positive read-through for the broader industrial metals complex. First Solar’s -18% decline today signals stress in the solar supply chain, making silver’s industrial bid particularly noteworthy as a diverging signal.

What to watch:Gold-silver ratio — if it compresses below 50:1, it historically signals peak metals exuberance and a potential reversal; watch Fed commentary through March for dollar-strengthening language that could pressure precious metals.

4. Economists Warn: SCOTUS Tariff Reversal Will Not Lower Consumer Prices — Inflation Stays Elevated

The core facts:Following SCOTUS’s reversal of Trump’s IEEPA tariffs on Monday, economists from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Moody’s Analytics issued analyses on Feb. 25 warning that consumer prices will not fall materially even as tariff levels drop. Retailers have already embedded cost increases into pricing structures, supply chains have been restructured, and import substitution patterns have changed. Goldman estimates only 20–30% of tariff-driven price increases would reverse even with complete tariff removal.

Why it matters:This is a critical insight for Fed policy: if the SCOTUS ruling doesn’t bring prices down, the primary rationale for near-term rate cuts disappears. Core PCE already sits at 3.0% — 100 basis points above the Fed’s 2% target — and sticky prices in a slowing economy create precisely the stagflationary bind that limits monetary policy effectiveness. Consumer-facing companies that raised prices citing tariffs will face pressure to justify maintained price levels.

What to watch:February CPI (due March 12) and January PCE (due March 13) — two consecutive hot reads would cement the Fed’s “higher for longer” posture through mid-year and eliminate any realistic H1 rate cut scenario.

5. CBS News Analysis: DOGE’s $160B Savings Claims Cost $135B to Execute; Congress Rejected Most Cuts

The core facts:A CBS News analysis published Feb. 25 found that DOGE’s claimed $160 billion in savings comes with an estimated $135 billion in implementation costs — including severance, legal settlements, lost productivity, and contract cancellations with built-in penalties. Additionally, Congressional records show Congress formally approved only approximately 15% of the spending cuts DOGE has attempted, with most executive-directed cuts facing active legal challenges. Net confirmed fiscal savings are estimated at $18–$25 billion, far below headline claims.

Why it matters:If true net savings are $18–$25B rather than $160B, the CBO’s already-dire deficit trajectory ($1.9T for FY2026) becomes materially more pessimistic. Treasury issuance would remain elevated, maintaining upward pressure on long-term yields and preventing the yield relief that rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, utilities, financials) need. The DOGE fiscal narrative is central to the administration’s economic credibility — a widening gap between claimed and actual savings is a medium-term market risk.

What to watch:CBO updated scoring of DOGE measures expected in March; Congressional budget reconciliation markup — if independent scorers confirm the CBS analysis, it would significantly change the fiscal math and could move Treasury yields.

6. Oracle Jumps 4% on Oppenheimer Upgrade to Outperform, $185 Target — AI Cloud Infrastructure Story

The core facts:Oppenheimer upgraded Oracle (ORCL) to Outperform from Perform with a $185 price target, citing Oracle Cloud Infrastructure’s growing AI contract pipeline, database migration tailwinds from enterprise AI adoption, and Oracle’s positioning as a key GPU cloud customer for Nvidia. The stock gained 4.0% to $168.50. Oracle has been aggressively building out OCI capacity and recently signed several multi-billion dollar AI infrastructure deals with hyperscale customers.

Why it matters:Oracle’s momentum validates that the enterprise software and cloud infrastructure layer is capturing meaningful AI buildout revenue — not just GPU manufacturers. As Nvidia reports record data center sales, the downstream beneficiaries in cloud services are becoming investable at current valuations. Oracle’s database-to-cloud migration cycle has a multi-year runway.

What to watch:Oracle’s next earnings call (March); additional AI infrastructure contract announcements from hyperscalers that reference OCI; cloud revenue growth rate vs. Microsoft Azure and AWS in upcoming Q1 reports.

7. Netflix Surges 4.9% — Media and Tech Sector Rally; Ad-Tier Growth Story Intact

The core facts:Netflix (NFLX) rose 4.9% to $1,025.40, leading a broad media and entertainment sector rally. The move was largely technical — momentum continuation from Tuesday’s recovery and pre-Nvidia earnings optimism lifting high-beta growth names. Netflix’s ad-supported tier has been gaining traction with advertisers, and recent subscriber data confirmed continued international expansion with no major churn from password-sharing crackdown fallout.

Why it matters:Netflix’s 5%+ gain signals that investor appetite for high-multiple growth stocks remains robust despite macro headwinds. The ad-supported tier is being closely watched as a template for streaming profitability industry-wide — a better-than-expected ad market in 2026 could meaningfully upgrade consensus earnings estimates not just for Netflix but for Disney+, Peacock, and Paramount+.

What to watch:Q1 2026 subscriber count and ad-revenue metrics (due April earnings); any Q1 guidance update at investor events; competitor streaming sub numbers for context on market share dynamics.

8. S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI Slows to 51.2 in February — Rising Input Prices Signal Tariff Pass-Through

The core facts:The S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI for February came in at 51.2, down from 52.4 in January and below the 52.0 consensus. More concerning than the headline: the input prices sub-index surged sharply, signaling tariff pass-through is beginning to hit manufacturers’ cost structures even as new orders softened. The composite (manufacturing + services) also moderated, suggesting the cooling is broad-based rather than sector-specific.

Why it matters:A PMI above 50 still signals expansion, but the combination of slowing output and rising input costs is a stagflationary signal. If input price pressures continue while demand softens, corporate margins will compress in Q1 — a negative for earnings estimates heading into Q2 reporting. Industries most exposed to imported inputs (automotive, electronics, consumer durables) face the greatest margin pressure.

What to watch:Official ISM Manufacturing PMI for February due Monday, March 2 — a reading below 50 would confirm contraction and add to stagflation concerns. ISM’s prices paid sub-index will be closely watched for tariff signal confirmation.

9. CBO February 2026 Budget Outlook: Federal Deficit Projected at Record $1.9 Trillion for FY2026

The core facts:The Congressional Budget Office released its February 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook projecting the federal deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in FY2026 — the largest in US history excluding COVID emergency years. Mandatory spending (Social Security, Medicare) and interest on the national debt (now approximately $1.2 trillion annually) are the primary drivers. The report assumes current law baseline, noting that pending reconciliation bill proposals could add an estimated $3–5 trillion to deficits over 10 years.

Why it matters:At $1.9 trillion, Treasury must issue massive amounts of debt to fund operations. Sustained issuance pressure keeps a structural floor under long-term Treasury yields, limiting how far the 10-year can fall even if the Fed cuts short-term rates. For rate-sensitive sectors — real estate, utilities, and financials — the fiscal backdrop now constitutes a persistent headwind independent of Fed policy decisions.

What to watch:Senate and House reconciliation markup timeline (March–April); CBO scoring of individual tax cut proposals; 10-year yield breaking above 4.25% would signal markets demanding an explicit fiscal risk premium.

10. Natural Gas Falls 2.1% to $3.22/MMBtu — Mild Weather and Elevated Storage Hit Prices

The core facts:Natural gas futures fell 2.1% to $3.22/MMBtu, hitting multi-month lows. NOAA forecasts showed above-normal temperatures through mid-March across major heating demand regions, while EIA storage data showed inventories running approximately 5% above the five-year seasonal average. LNG export terminals are operating at near-capacity, providing some price support but insufficient to offset the demand miss from the warm weather outlook.

Why it matters:Natural gas is a key input cost for utilities, chemical manufacturers, and fertilizer producers. Lower gas prices reduce operating costs for industrials and household heating bills but signal weaker demand expectations — consistent with the broader economic slowdown picture emerging from Q4 GDP and consumer confidence data. Energy sector companies with significant gas exposure (EQT, Coterra, Range Resources) face continued headwinds on earnings estimates.

What to watch:EIA weekly natural gas storage report (Thursday, Feb. 26); NOAA 30-day temperature outlook revision — a cold snap in March could produce a sharp price reversal given current short positioning.

11. Lowe’s (LOW): -5.2% | Q4 Beat Overshadowed by Disappointing FY26 Guidance

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Q4 2025 revenue and EPS beat consensus estimates; same-store sales were slightly positive. However, FY2026 EPS guidance came in at $12.25–$12.75, missing the $12.95 consensus by approximately 8–15 cents at the midpoint. Management cited a cautious housing market outlook and uncertain consumer spending environment as headwinds to the full-year forecast.

The Problem/Win:The Q4 beat was insufficient to offset the guidance miss. With housing starts still depressed and existing home sales sluggish, the home improvement category is not seeing the recovery management had been projecting. Tariff-driven cost pressures on imported building materials are adding to margin uncertainty for FY26.

The Ripple:Home Depot (HD) fell in sympathy during the session; the guidance miss reinforces that housing-adjacent consumer spending remains depressed despite nominal consumer resilience in other categories.

What It Means:Lowe’s is a bellwether for the housing economy — a soft FY26 guide signals that existing home sales and renovation activity may remain subdued through mid-year. The combination of elevated mortgage rates and weakening consumer confidence is keeping a lid on big-ticket home improvement spending.

What to watch:February existing home sales (due March) and March 2026 housing starts — recovery in either would provide a potential 2H26 catalyst for LOW guidance upgrade.

12. First Solar (FSLR): -18.0% | EPS Miss and Catastrophic FY26 Revenue Guidance Cut on Tariff Chaos

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Q4 2025 EPS: $4.84 vs $5.17 consensus (miss). FY2026 revenue guidance: $4.9–$5.2B vs $5.6B consensus — a miss of approximately $400–$700M, or 7–13% below expectations. The company cited extreme uncertainty around tariff policy on solar panel imports, project financing delays, and customer deferrals as primary drivers of the guidance reduction.

The Problem/Win:First Solar is the largest US-based solar manufacturer, making it particularly sensitive to the policy whiplash between SCOTUS’s tariff reversal and the administration’s subsequent tariff actions. The guidance miss reflects deep uncertainty about whether project economics work at current component costs — utilities and solar developers are pausing procurement decisions until tariff policy stabilizes.

The Ripple:The entire US solar sector sold off: Sunrun, Enphase, and SunPower all declined in sympathy. The move confirms that clean energy stocks remain highly policy-dependent and vulnerable to tariff uncertainty regardless of underlying demand fundamentals.

What It Means:First Solar’s guidance miss is a sector-wide warning: until tariff policy on solar inputs stabilizes, project financing and order books across US solar installers and manufacturers will remain disrupted. The IRA incentive framework remains intact but is insufficient to offset tariff-driven cost uncertainty.

What to watch:Any executive order or legislative action clarifying solar panel tariff treatment; Q1 2026 solar industry order data — a recovery in bookings would be the first sign that the sector is stabilizing after tariff policy chaos.

13. Nvidia (NVDA): +6% AH | Blowout Q4 and $78B Q1 Guidance Reset the AI Trade — Market Reacts Thursday

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Q4 2025 Revenue: $68.13B vs $66.21B est. (beat). Q4 EPS: $1.62 vs $1.53 est. (beat). Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance: ~$78B vs $72.8B est. (massive beat — +7.1% above consensus). Data Center revenue dominated with strong sequential and year-over-year growth. Gross margin held near record levels. Market reaction opens Thursday.

The Problem/Win:The $78B Q1 guidance is approximately double Nvidia’s revenue from a year ago and exceeds even the most optimistic sell-side estimates. This reflects continued insatiable demand for H100 and GB200 GPU clusters from hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) and sovereign AI programs. Demand visibility extends through at least 2026, with Blackwell architecture ramping aggressively.

The Ripple:Shares rose +6% after-hours. AMD, Broadcom, and Marvell also gained in sympathy as the beat validates the broader AI semiconductor supercycle. TSMC and SK Hynix (HBM memory for AI GPUs) are indirect beneficiaries. Cloud hyperscaler stocks (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN) may also benefit as capex confidence is reinforced.

What It Means:Nvidia’s results confirm the AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating, not plateauing. For portfolio managers, this is a potential cyclical buying signal for semiconductor and AI infrastructure names that have been under pressure since Monday’s “Sell America” selloff. The question is whether one company’s hyper-growth can sustain the broader risk-on narrative against a deteriorating macro backdrop.

What to watch:Thursday opening session — whether NVDA holds its after-hours gains will signal conviction; Q1 data center capex guidance from Microsoft and Google (due April) will confirm whether the demand Nvidia is booking translates into sustained deployment.

14. Salesforce (CRM): Mixed AH | Revenue Beat and 22,000 Agentforce Deals, But Conservative FY27 Guide

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Q4 2025 Revenue: $11.18B (beat consensus). Q4 EPS: $3.04 (beat). Agentforce AI platform: 22,000 customer deals signed. FY2027 revenue guidance: conservative vs. analyst expectations, below the growth rate implied by current Agentforce momentum. Market reaction opens Thursday.

The Problem/Win:The 22,000 Agentforce deals represent a major commercial traction milestone for Salesforce’s AI agentic platform — the question is whether those deals convert to meaningful revenue at scale. The conservative FY27 guide suggests management is being cautious about the revenue recognition timeline for enterprise AI deployments, which often have extended implementation cycles.

The Ripple:ServiceNow, HubSpot, and other enterprise SaaS names with AI agentic offerings may see muted reactions — the Agentforce traction validates the market opportunity, but conservative guidance introduces caution about near-term monetization pace.

What It Means:Salesforce demonstrates that enterprise AI adoption is broad but monetization is slower than hoped — a pattern consistent with prior platform transitions (cloud, mobile). Investors focused on the traction signal will be buyers; those focused on near-term revenue growth may be disappointed.

What to watch:Q1 FY27 Agentforce revenue contribution (reported in June) — the first test of whether deal volume converts to meaningful bookings at scale; watch for competitor launches from Microsoft Copilot and ServiceNow that could affect Agentforce win rates.

15. Snowflake (SNOW): Beat on Revenue and EPS; +30% Growth and 125% NRR Signal Durable AI Demand

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Q4 2025 Product Revenue: $1.28B, +30.1% YoY (beat). EPS: Beat consensus. Net Revenue Retention Rate (NRR): 125%, indicating existing customers expanded spending meaningfully year-over-year. Market reaction opens Thursday.

The Problem/Win:Snowflake’s 30% growth at its scale is exceptional and confirms that the enterprise data cloud market is accelerating, driven by AI workloads that require massive data warehousing and processing capacity. An NRR of 125% means existing customers are spending 25% more than last year — a powerful signal of product-market fit and switching costs.

The Ripple:Databricks (private, but competing directly) and Palantir face intensified competitive pressure. Cloud data platform peers Teradata and Cloudera are at risk of continued market share loss. AWS and Azure data services may benefit from the overall category growth.

What It Means:Snowflake’s results confirm that AI-driven data infrastructure spending is one of the most durable enterprise budget priorities in 2026 — even in a slowing macro environment. High NRR provides revenue visibility that makes the growth story more defensible than headline GDP or consumer confidence data would suggest.

What to watch:Q1 FY27 product revenue guidance (provided during earnings call) for sequential growth rate confirmation; watch for management commentary on AI workload mix as a percentage of total compute consumed.

Consumer Confidence Falls to 91.2 in February — Expectations Index Below 80 Signals Recession Risk (Conference Board, Feb. 25, 2026)

What they’re saying:The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 91.2 in February, below both the January reading and the 95.5 consensus forecast. The Expectations sub-index — which measures consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and jobs — fell below 80, a threshold the Conference Board associates with heightened recession risk. Consumers cited concerns about rising prices, federal workforce uncertainty, and tariff-driven cost pressures as primary drags on sentiment.

The context:Consumer spending drives approximately 70% of US GDP, making confidence a leading indicator of economic trajectory. An Expectations sub-index below 80 has preceded recessions in the past with meaningful consistency. The combination of below-80 expectations and a 1.4% Q4 GDP print creates a more concerning growth picture than either data point would suggest in isolation. DOGE-related federal layoffs have not yet fully registered in household income data, suggesting the confidence reading may deteriorate further in March.

What to watch:February retail sales data (due mid-March) — the first hard spending read that will reveal whether the confidence drop translates into reduced consumer activity; continuing jobless claims (weekly) as DOGE layoffs flow through the labor market.

Flash PMI: Manufacturing Slows to 51.2 While Input Prices Surge — Stagflation Pattern Emerging (S&P Global, Feb. 25, 2026)

What they’re saying:The S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI for February fell to 51.2 from 52.4 in January, with both new orders and output growth decelerating. The input prices sub-index rose sharply, with survey respondents citing tariff-driven cost increases on imported raw materials and components as a primary driver. Factory managers reported that price increases are proving difficult to pass through to customers facing their own demand constraints.

The context:The divergence between rising input costs and softening new orders is the defining feature of stagflation at the sector level. When manufacturers cannot pass through input cost increases, margin compression accelerates — and when they do pass them through, inflation becomes embedded. Neither outcome is favorable for corporate earnings in Q1. The PMI reading above 50 still technically signals expansion, but the trajectory and composition of the index are more concerning than the headline number.

What to watch:ISM Manufacturing PMI for February due Monday, March 2 — ISM’s prices paid sub-index will confirm whether tariff pass-through is genuinely accelerating; a headline below 50 would signal outright contraction.

DOGE Federal Layoffs and Spending Cuts: Q4 GDP Impact Confirmed, Q1 Trajectory Uncertain (Multiple Sources, Feb. 21-25, 2026)

What they’re saying:The Q4 2025 GDP advance estimate confirmed that federal government spending contracted sharply, with the BEA attributing approximately 1.0 percentage point of drag to reduced federal outlays. Separately, economists at Moody’s Analytics and the Brookings Institution estimate that DOGE-driven federal employment reductions — affecting tens of thousands of workers — will continue to subtract from GDP through Q1 and Q2 2026, with the full labor market impact lagged by 2–3 months as severance payments temporarily cushion income data.

The context:Federal workers and contractors make up approximately 2-3% of the US labor force directly, with a significant additional multiplier through federal contractor spending in defense, healthcare, and technology sectors. The GDP impact of sustained federal spending reduction is non-linear — initial cuts subtract from output, then reduced household income cascades into lower private consumption, potentially amplifying the GDP drag through 2026. The CBS News analysis showing net DOGE savings of $18–$25B (vs $160B claimed) suggests the fiscal tightening may not deliver the deficit reduction intended to offset any growth impact.

What to watch:February NFP (March 6) — the first jobs report that may begin capturing DOGE layoffs in BLS data; continuing jobless claims (weekly) for early signal; Q1 2026 Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker to assess whether federal spending drag is accelerating into Q1.

• Thursday, Feb. 26: Nvidia/Salesforce/Snowflake earnings market reaction opens; Weekly Initial Jobless Claims — the first post-DOGE read closely watched for any early sign of federal layoffs registering in the unemployment system

• Thursday, Feb. 26: Q4 2025 GDP Second Estimate (BEA) — revision to today’s 1.4% advance print; any downward revision deepens the growth deceleration narrative

• Friday, Feb. 27: Q4 2025 Corporate Profits (BEA); EIA Natural Gas Storage Report — will confirm whether storage surplus persists or demand is recovering

• Monday, Mar. 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI for February — the official read confirming or contradicting today’s flash PMI stagflation signal; a sub-50 print would confirm contraction

• Friday, Mar. 6: February NFP Jobs Report — the first employment report that may begin capturing DOGE federal layoffs in BLS data; the single most important data point for the Fed’s March meeting stance

1. Can Nvidia’s $78B Q1 guidance sustain the AI trade and lift the broader Nasdaq through the macro headwinds accumulating in GDP, consumer confidence, and PCE data — or is Thursday a “sell the news” moment?

2. Will Thursday’s jobless claims data show the first wave of DOGE federal layoffs beginning to register in the weekly unemployment system — and will the market treat any spike as a one-time event or a trend signal?

3. With core PCE at 3.0% and GDP at 1.4%, does the Fed have any realistic path to rate cuts in 2026 — and if the answer is no, what does “higher for longer” through year-end mean for equity multiples and credit spreads?