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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced Relief, Bonds Priced a Hike, as AMD Jumped 13.26% and Nvidia Fell 4.27% on Its CEO Probe, With December Hike Odds at 84% and Households Strained Before Tuesday’s CPI

By RecessionALERT on November 9, 2026 in Reflections

Chips led a broad rebound: the S&P 500 rose 2.35% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.40% as AMD jumped 13.26% on an Oppenheimer upgrade. Nvidia fell 4.27% as its board probes whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by foreign intelligence. Brent slid 6.21% after Trump called new Iran strikes “highly unlikely.” Bonds balked: 2-year yields rose 5.4 bps and December hike odds climbed to about 84% before Tuesday’s CPI. Washington and Beijing extended their trade truce to January 10, 2027.

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MIB: PCE Re-Accelerates, Consumer Confidence Craters, and Nvidia Defies the Macro

By RecessionALERT on February 25, 2026 in Reflections

Nvidia reported Q4 EPS of $1.62 (est. $1.53) with revenue of $68.1B and guided Q1 to $78B — sending shares +6% after-hours on a near-record beat. Markets shrugged off Trump’s SOTU optimism as economists warned the SCOTUS tariff reversal won’t translate to lower consumer prices. December PCE Core re-accelerated to 3.0% YoY — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge moving in the wrong direction and eliminating any realistic H1 rate cut. Silver surged 3.4% to near $90/oz while First Solar cratered 18% on a brutal guidance miss. S&P 500 +0.81%, Nasdaq +1.26%.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.