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MIB Daily: MRVL +33%, S&P 7,600 on Huang’s Computex Crown — Hammack’s Hike Signal Makes Friday’s NFP the Market’s Next Binary

By RecessionALERT on June 2, 2026 in Reflections

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang named Marvell “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex — MRVL +33%, chip equipment up 5-7%, S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time. Alphabet’s $80B equity offering to fund AI capex sent GOOGL -4%; Berkshire took a $10B stake. FTC broadened antitrust probe into Microsoft’s cloud/AI bundling (MSFT -4%). JOLTS April surged 731K above consensus as Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warned a rate hike “may soon be appropriate,” pushing 2026 hike odds to 34% with WTI above $93.

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MIB Daily: DELL +32.8%, Dow 51K — AI capex now structural; market priced growth, Iran deal, and no June hike simultaneously. Overweight tech; hedge the binary

By RecessionALERT on May 29, 2026 in Reflections

Dell’s AI server blowout — $43.8B revenue, AI revenue +757%, $51.3B backlog — drove DELL +32.8% and the Dow above 51,000 for the first time, with IBM +12.71% on quantum/CHIPS momentum. Chicago PMI surged to 62.7, a 37-month high — Monday’s ISM is the critical confirmation. Bowman and Schmid raised June FOMC hike risk; Schmid floated accelerated QT as a policy tool. Trump’s Iran meeting ended undecided; oil’s 17% monthly loss has a deal priced in — Monday open is binary.

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MIB: PCE Re-Accelerates, Consumer Confidence Craters, and Nvidia Defies the Macro

By RecessionALERT on February 25, 2026 in Reflections

Nvidia reported Q4 EPS of $1.62 (est. $1.53) with revenue of $68.1B and guided Q1 to $78B — sending shares +6% after-hours on a near-record beat. Markets shrugged off Trump’s SOTU optimism as economists warned the SCOTUS tariff reversal won’t translate to lower consumer prices. December PCE Core re-accelerated to 3.0% YoY — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge moving in the wrong direction and eliminating any realistic H1 rate cut. Silver surged 3.4% to near $90/oz while First Solar cratered 18% on a brutal guidance miss. S&P 500 +0.81%, Nasdaq +1.26%.

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