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MIB Daily: Amazon’s 15.32% Surge Fuels a $720B Capex Bet — But 4.716% Yields and Falling Real Wages Say Own the Suppliers, Not the Rally

By RecessionALERT on July 31, 2026 in Reflections

Amazon exploded 15.32% on a 37% AWS quarter; Apple sank 7.35% on tariff-driven chip costs. The four hyperscalers now commit $720-745B to 2026 capex, up 77% from last year. Yet the S&P’s 0.70% gain hid eight red sectors, a falling Russell 2000 and Technology down 0.49%. The 10-year closed at 4.716%, highest since January 2025, as Barkin urged reversing 2025’s cuts. Brent capped a 23% July after Iran halted Hormuz traffic. Warsh may halve the FOMC calendar to four meetings.

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MIB: S&P 500 All-Time High on Earnings Strength as GDP Miss, Oil Blockade, and No-Cut Odds Dominate

By RecessionALERT on April 30, 2026 in Reflections

Trump’s Hormuz blockade sent Brent to $126 intraday (settling $114); US gasoline hits $4.30/gallon, threatening $190B in annualized spending losses. S&P 500 set record 7,209 — best April since 2020 — as GOOGL, CAT, and LLY each surged ~10% on earnings beats while META fell -8.65% on $145B AI capex without ROI clarity. Q1 GDP +2.0% (slight miss), PCE 3.5%, ECI +0.9% — markets price 77% odds of no Fed cuts in 2026; Warsh clears Senate Banking 13-11, confirmation due May 11.

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