A record intraday high evaporated: retail sales fell 0.6% and UMich sentiment crashed to 51.0 — yet Treasuries sold off, because inflation expectations rose. The 10Y hit 4.692% and GDPNow cut Q3 growth to 4.3%. AMD surged 6.50% on a record $4.75B bond deal while Broadcom sank 5.94% on hidden AI debt. Goldman began syndicating Nvidia’s $500B financing. The UAE accused Iran of piracy in Hormuz. And Canada is five days from a 50% tariff cliff.
Tag Archives | UAE
MIB Daily: Bad News Stopped Being Good News, Weak Retail Sales and Hormuz Risk Lifted Yields as AMD’s Bond Deal Beat Broadcom’s AI Debt Fears, Setting Up Wednesday’s Tariff Cliff for Energy Over Tech
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MIB Daily: SK Hynix +14% AI Frenzy Meets SpaceX’s Junk-Rated Credit Hangover — Does Tuesday’s CPI Break Warsh’s Hawkish Bet?
SK Hynix’s record $26.5B Nasdaq debut popped 14% and Meta’s best week since 2024 powered stocks higher, though small-caps and high-multiple software names (PANW, DELL, MRVL) slid on rate jitters. Fed Chair Warsh’s first Monetary Policy Report struck a hawkish note ahead of Tuesday’s CPI and his House/Senate testimony next week — with FOMC minutes showing 9 of 18 officials eyeing a hike. SpaceX bonds trade like junk. Trade deficit widened to $77.6B. Nvidia rose 4% on eased UAE chip curbs.
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MIB: Stagflation Flush — Oil $105, DJTA –4.82%, Spirit Liquidated, Williams Kills 2026 Cuts
Iran escalated Monday — UAE activated missile defenses, Trump rejected Tehran’s 14-point proposal — driving WTI to $105/bbl and a 10-of-11-sector S&P selloff. Amazon’s Supply Chain Services launch cratered UPS –10% and FedEx –9%, applying the AWS playbook to logistics. Spirit Airlines liquidated — first major US carrier collapse in 25 years — after $4.51/gallon jet fuel killed a $500M federal rescue. NY Fed’s Williams raised 2026 inflation to 3%, signaling no cuts; the SLOOS confirmed C&I tightening across all firm sizes.
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MIB Digest: Hormuz Stagflation, Nasdaq 25K, and the Week AI Stopped Taking Capex on Faith
The Strait of Hormuz blockade sent WTI +7.94% and gasoline to a 4-year high of $4.30/gal, while the FOMC’s historic 8-4 split collapsed rate-cut probability from 59% to ~22.5% — stagflation confirmed as the Fed’s base-case bind. Alphabet’s Cloud +63% YoY drove Nasdaq above 25,000 for the first time; Meta’s $145B capex raise was punished -8.65% — the week AI demanded proof of ROI. Eli Lilly: Mounjaro $8.66B (+125% YoY), guidance raised to $82–85B.
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MIB: Record Nasdaq, Collapsing Breadth — Apple Hides a Market That’s Quietly Breaking Down
Apple Q2 beat drove AAPL +3.24% and Nasdaq 100 to a record, but 8 of 11 sectors fell and VIX rose — mega-cap AI, not a broad advance. UAE exited OPEC+ after 60 years, threatening cartel discipline while WTI fell 2.45%. Trump imposed 25% EU auto tariffs violating the 2025 framework; EU retaliation across agriculture and tech is unpriced. ISM Prices hit 84.6% while Manufacturing Employment fell to 46.4% — stagflation crystallizing. Pentagon cleared eight companies for classified AI networks; ORCL +6.47%.
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MIB: Stagflation Trap — Fed Splits 8-4, WTI +8%, GDPNow 1.2%, Mag-4 Beats Fail to Lift the Tape
Fed holds 3.50–3.75% in historic 8-4 split as hawkish dissenters signal removal of easing bias; Trump locks in months-long Iran blockade as WTI surges 8.3% to $108/bbl and US gas hits 4-year high of $4.23/gal; UAE quits OPEC effective May 1; Atlanta Fed finalizes Q1 GDPNow at 1.2%, 110 bps below 2.3% consensus ahead of Thursday’s advance GDP + Core PCE release.
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MIB: Triple Shock — OpenAI Revenue Miss, UAE Exits OPEC, and Trump Rejects Iran’s Hormuz Deal Ahead of $700B AI Earnings Week
OpenAI missed revenue and user targets (WSJ), gutting AI chip stocks — AMAT -5.87%, KLAC -4.79%, AVGO -4.39%; Nasdaq -1.01%. UAE quit OPEC after 58 years, effective May 1. Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz reopening proposal — Brent hit $112.70 intraday, US gas $4.18/gal (highest since Aug 2022). Powell’s final FOMC opened Tuesday. Coca-Cola (+3.86%), Visa, and Starbucks all beat and raised guidance. GOOGL/MSFT/META Wednesday — $700B AI capex on trial.
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