Broadcom’s decade-long Apple chip deal ignites a broad semiconductor rebound, driving the S&P (+0.72%) and Dow to record highs while AMD (+6.61%) and Arista (+8.31%) ride AI-infrastructure demand. June’s ISM Services report complicates the rate-cut story: hiring jumped even as growth cooled, muddying the Fed’s path into month-end’s FOMC. Tesla (+6.69%) rebounds on its first Miami robotaxi trading day. Vertex snaps up Crinetics for $10B in a biotech bet, and SK Hynix confirms a record $28B Nasdaq listing, pricing Thursday.
MIB Daily: SOX +3% and AMD +6.61% Confirm a Broadening AI Rally — But Can Cyclical Rotation Survive a Fed Still Split on Rate Cuts?
MIB Daily: META +8.85% threatens the chip trade from within (SOX -7%) — short semis, own Financials as Thursday’s NFP decides the stagflation exit
META +8.85% on AI cloud reports; global semi selloff (KLAC -11.8%, MU -10.57%, SOX -7%) split Q3’s opening session. Atlanta Fed cut GDPNow to 1.2% from 2.5% — 2026’s largest single-day revision — as ADP missed at 98K; Thursday’s NFP is the binary risk event. Warsh at ECB Sintra refused July guidance with hike odds at 54%; 10Y +6 bps to 4.48%. WFC +3.99% on Goldman upgrade and 11% dividend raise as all 32 banks cleared stress tests; Financials +1.61%.
MIB Daily: SCOTUS 5-4 and Iran Ease Spark Rally; Bond Non-Confirmation Warns — Overweight Semis, Fade Duration Into 75K NFP Thursday
The Supreme Court preserved Fed independence 5-4 (Lisa Cook stays) while overturning Humphrey’s Executor 6-3, sending the Nasdaq 100 to a 2.26% gain. NVIDIA’s $3.2B Corning AI deal drove GLW +15.7% and SOXX +3.76% as Alphabet debuted on the Dow, crossing 52,000. Iran’s ‘stand down’ unwound gold -1.60% but Doha talks Tuesday face structural friction. Pantheon projects Thursday’s NFP at 75K vs 172K in May — stagflation signal crystallizing. Strategy plans to sell $1.25B in Bitcoin, flipping BTC supply negative.
MIB Daily: Korea Nukes Semis (SOXX -7.5%, MU -13.2%), Iran Senate Locks WTI at $73.74 — BofA 3-Hike vs. Pantheon Disinflation: Thursday PCE Decides
The Korean Kospi’s ETF-driven circuit-breaker detonated a global chip rout — SOXX -7.5%, MU -13.2%, Nasdaq 100 -3.30%; ~$776B erased in a single session. BofA simultaneously raised its Fed call to three 2026 hikes, pushing futures to 66% year-end probability; former NY Fed chief Dudley warned the Fed risks losing credibility as an inflation fighter. Senate passed an Iran War Powers resolution 50-48 — the first bipartisan passage ever — cementing de-escalation as WTI extended to $73.74. Micron reports tonight.
MIB: Record S&P 500, AMD +18.6%, and a Hawkish Fed Pivot — Three Conflicting Signals on the Same Day
Markets hit all-time highs as Iran peace deal optimism crashed WTI -6% and AMD surged +18.6% on blowout Q1 earnings — Data Center +57%, Q2 guide $11.2B vs. $10.5B consensus; S&P +1.46%, Nasdaq 100 +2.09%. NVIDIA reclaimed $5T market cap on a $3.2B Corning optical deal. ADP April +109K sets up Friday’s binary NFP (range: 55K–165K). Fed’s Musalem and Goolsbee both turned hawkish, flagging rate hike scenarios even as oil crashed — April CPI May 12 is now pivotal.
