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MIB Daily: MU +19% / Nasdaq 30K / IRGC Airstrikes — Semiconductors Win, Energy Fades, PCE Thursday Decides

By RecessionALERT on May 26, 2026 in Reflections

MU surged +19% after UBS tripled its price target to $1,625, lifting Nasdaq past 30,000 and S&P 500 to records. Overnight US airstrikes on IRGC targets imperiled the ceasefire, sending Brent near $100 and gasoline to $4.56/gal — a four-year high. Energy equities (CVX -3.5%, XOM -3.3%) fell despite the crude surge as markets priced Iranian supply re-entry. SpaceX received FTSE Russell fast-entry eligibility for its $1.75T IPO. Consumer Confidence slipped as two-thirds of consumers cut spending on inflation.

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GEONOTE: Completely Open. Completely Conditional. Nine Days.

By RecessionALERT on April 17, 2026 in Research Papers

Iran’s Foreign Minister declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” on 17 April 2026 and equity markets printed all-time highs. The strait was never the disease. A structural 11 to 13 million barrels per day global supply deficit — driven by destroyed upstream production, captive Qatari LNG with no pipeline bypass, and 800 million barrels of stranded crude behind a corridor moving five ships a day — persists regardless of any corridor announcement. The declaration expires 26 April. The deficit does not.

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MIB: Stagflation Trap — Iran Sends Oil Past $101 While Google’s AI Crushes Semis and Meta Faces $Billions in Verdicts

By RecessionALERT on March 26, 2026 in Reflections

Iran denies US peace talks, pushing Brent crude past $101 and extending the Hormuz chokehold. Google’s TurboQuant crushed semiconductor stocks (LRCX -9.4%, AMAT -8.3%, AMD -7.5%, MU -7%). Meta shed 8% on a landmark social media addiction verdict. Nasdaq entered correction territory (-10%). OECD raised US inflation forecast to 4.2% for 2026, highest in G7. BlackRock downgraded US equities to neutral as stagflation fears mount.

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MIB: Senate Clears Iran Strikes, Services PMI Hits 4-Year High, and Broadcom’s AI Revenue Doubles to $8.4B

By RecessionALERT on March 4, 2026 in Reflections

Iran peace talk whipsaws oil — NYT reports secret Iran-CIA outreach, Tehran denies; VIX tumbles from 26.4 to 20.4. Broadcom AI revenue doubles to $8.4B, Q2 guidance $22B (AVGO up AMC). ISM services PMI hits 56.1%, strongest since 2022. ADP +63K, but January slashed to 11K. CrowdStrike (CRWD) +1.79% on earnings digest; Ross Stores (ROST) +7% on Q4 beat. Senate defeats war powers resolution.

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