Iran’s restrictive Hormuz draft blew up the reopening trade — Brent +4.72% to $83.20, Energy the lone sector gainer. Banks dragged the Dow down 464 points; Goldman and Citi each off more than 2.5%. Q2 unit labour costs came in at 1.3% against 2.1% expected and claims held below 200K for a third week — yields rose anyway. SpaceX doubled its float and still closed up 6.14%. Williams says AI isn’t a bubble; tech steadied, Microsoft +2.54%. July payrolls Friday, 80K expected.
Tag Archives | Dow Jones Industrial Average
MIB Daily: Oil Just Took the Fed’s Steering Wheel — Brent +4.72% Overrides Soft Labor Costs While GS -2.62% and C -2.78% Drag the Dow, Williams Waves Off an AI Bubble, and Crude Sparks a Rotation Ahead of Friday’s Payrolls
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MIB Daily: Dow’s Record Close Hid an AI Reckoning — NVIDIA +3.43% Outguns Alphabet’s Retreat as Soft ADP Data Puts Friday’s Payrolls on Recession Watch
The Dow closed at a record 54,349 — and almost nothing else did. Private payrolls added just 44,000, ISM services employment fell into contraction, and September hike odds slid to 57% even as Kashkari and Cook publicly pushed for tightening. Alphabet dropped 4.03% after losing its chief scientist and DeepMind CEO in one day. Gold surged 3.71% to $4,306. Tower REITs fell 6% each as SpaceX aimed Starlink at the carriers. AI infrastructure sold off on no news; NVIDIA rose 3.43%.
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MIB Daily: A Record Built on an Unsigned Hormuz Deal — Tech Carries It, AMD Tests It, Macro Waits Its Turn
Records everywhere: Dow tops 54,000 for the first time, S&P 500 hits 7,736.49. Brent collapses 6.08% to $78.68 as Bessent floats a Hormuz deal “today or tomorrow” — but June’s signed deal already failed on the same question. Tech rips 4.25%; Intel and SanDisk both +10.84%. AMD beats on everything and falls 8% after hours anyway. Bezos files to sell $4.07B of Amazon. JOLTS and factory orders both miss — nobody cared. Philadelphia Fed’s Paulson keeps a rate hike alive.
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MIB Daily: Oil Did the Fed’s Job Today — WTI’s 5.52% Crash Funds a Record Dow and a $3T Amazon, But Chips and Transports Aren’t Buying the Truce
Trump called off strikes on Iran and crude cratered — WTI -5.52% to $80 — but Tehran denies talking to Washington and Hormuz stays shut. The Dow closed at a record 53,178.41, and this time breadth came along: 8 of 11 sectors green, Russell +1.72%. ISM manufacturing hit a post-2022 high and GDPNow leapt to 6.2%; bonds rallied anyway. Williams says the Fed hikes if inflation stalls. AstraZeneca-Bristol Myers weighed a $400bn merger; AZN fell 9%. Amazon topped $3 trillion.
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MIB Daily: The Fed Put Just Got Cheaper — 19-Year Bond Yields and a Trillion-Dollar Chip Wipeout Leave Thursday’s Core PCE to Decide Stagflation, Favoring Macro Hedges Over Tech and Industrials
The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75% but three members dissented for a hike — the first three-way hawkish split since 2016 — and the Dow fell 2.18%, its worst day since April 2025. The 30-year hit a 19-year high at 5.21%. Iran struck a US base in Jordan and rejected Oman’s Hormuz plan; WTI jumped 6.74%. SK Hynix’s miss tipped the Nasdaq 100 into correction, erasing $1 trillion of global chip value. Caterpillar sank 6.91% on data-centre permitting risk.
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MIB Daily: AI’s Boom Is Now the Fed’s Inflation Fear — S&P +0.81%, Hike Odds to 59%, Iran Priced as Contained, Semis Up as Premium Names Sold Ahead of July 14 CPI
Markets shrugged off a second day of US-Iran strikes as the S&P 500 gained 0.81% and Nasdaq 100 surged 1.62% on an AI-chip rally ahead of SK Hynix’s record $29B Nasdaq debut. NY Fed’s Williams named AI demand his top inflation fear, sending 2026 hike odds to 59% from 48%. Costco (COST) tumbled 4.2% on decelerating comps while oil fell 2.3% despite fresh strikes. State AGs moved to block the $110B Paramount-WBD merger while a 30-year auction drew record demand.
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MIB Weekly: The Fed Talked Tough, the Jobs Data Called Its Bluff — Rotate Out of Memory Chips as Dow Hits 52,900
The S&P 500 gained 1.76% this holiday-shortened week as the Dow notched three fresh records, but a violent AI-infrastructure whipsaw defined the tape: Monday’s snapback reversed into a two-day global semiconductor rout after Meta’s AI-cloud pivot (META +8.85% then -4.90%) triggered a KOSPI circuit breaker. The bigger story was labor: June nonfarm payrolls badly missed at 57K vs. 115K consensus, forcing markets to price out a near-term Fed hike even as Fed officials talked tough on inflation days earlier.
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MIB Daily: Payrolls Miss (57K vs 115K) Fuels a Record Dow as Gold and Chips Flash a Warning — Can AI Capex Survive the Rotation Into Value?
June payrolls badly missed at 57K vs. 115K est.; unemployment fell to 4.2% only as participation hit a five-year low. Dow rode Fed rate-cut hopes to a record (+1.14%) even as gold’s 1.3% jump read it as a growth warning. Semiconductors extended their rout (SanDisk -14%, KLA -11.5%) as Meta (-4.9%) admitted AI agents “hasn’t accelerated as expected.” Tesla fell 7.5% despite blowout deliveries; O’Reilly bid ~$10B for GPC’s NAPA; oil hit a 4-month low on US-Iran progress.
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MIB: $100 Oil, Five Straight Down Weeks, and a Consumer Sentiment Reading From the Abyss
WTI crude above $100 for first time since 2022; Trump’s Iran deadline extension did nothing to calm markets. Dow enters correction; S&P posts 5th straight losing week — worst streak in 4 years. Macquarie warns 40% chance of $200 oil, $7/gallon gasoline if war lasts to June. Gold surges to $4,521/oz as VIX spikes 13% to 31. AZN +2.74% on Phase 3 COPD breakthrough. UMich crashes to 53.3 — bottom 1st percentile of all-time survey history.
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