Dow Jones Industrial Average

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MIB Daily: AI’s Boom Is Now the Fed’s Inflation Fear — S&P +0.81%, Hike Odds to 59%, Iran Priced as Contained, Semis Up as Premium Names Sold Ahead of July 14 CPI

By RecessionALERT on July 9, 2026 in Reflections

Markets shrugged off a second day of US-Iran strikes as the S&P 500 gained 0.81% and Nasdaq 100 surged 1.62% on an AI-chip rally ahead of SK Hynix’s record $29B Nasdaq debut. NY Fed’s Williams named AI demand his top inflation fear, sending 2026 hike odds to 59% from 48%. Costco (COST) tumbled 4.2% on decelerating comps while oil fell 2.3% despite fresh strikes. State AGs moved to block the $110B Paramount-WBD merger while a 30-year auction drew record demand.

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MIB Weekly: The Fed Talked Tough, the Jobs Data Called Its Bluff — Rotate Out of Memory Chips as Dow Hits 52,900

By RecessionALERT on July 2, 2026 in Reflections

The S&P 500 gained 1.76% this holiday-shortened week as the Dow notched three fresh records, but a violent AI-infrastructure whipsaw defined the tape: Monday’s snapback reversed into a two-day global semiconductor rout after Meta’s AI-cloud pivot (META +8.85% then -4.90%) triggered a KOSPI circuit breaker. The bigger story was labor: June nonfarm payrolls badly missed at 57K vs. 115K consensus, forcing markets to price out a near-term Fed hike even as Fed officials talked tough on inflation days earlier.

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MIB Daily: Payrolls Miss (57K vs 115K) Fuels a Record Dow as Gold and Chips Flash a Warning — Can AI Capex Survive the Rotation Into Value?

By RecessionALERT on July 2, 2026 in Reflections

June payrolls badly missed at 57K vs. 115K est.; unemployment fell to 4.2% only as participation hit a five-year low. Dow rode Fed rate-cut hopes to a record (+1.14%) even as gold’s 1.3% jump read it as a growth warning. Semiconductors extended their rout (SanDisk -14%, KLA -11.5%) as Meta (-4.9%) admitted AI agents “hasn’t accelerated as expected.” Tesla fell 7.5% despite blowout deliveries; O’Reilly bid ~$10B for GPC’s NAPA; oil hit a 4-month low on US-Iran progress.

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MIB: $100 Oil, Five Straight Down Weeks, and a Consumer Sentiment Reading From the Abyss

By RecessionALERT on March 27, 2026 in Reflections

WTI crude above $100 for first time since 2022; Trump’s Iran deadline extension did nothing to calm markets. Dow enters correction; S&P posts 5th straight losing week — worst streak in 4 years. Macquarie warns 40% chance of $200 oil, $7/gallon gasoline if war lasts to June. Gold surges to $4,521/oz as VIX spikes 13% to 31. AZN +2.74% on Phase 3 COPD breakthrough. UMich crashes to 53.3 — bottom 1st percentile of all-time survey history.

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