Crude fell a fourth session, Brent slipping below $100 (-3.77%) as Saudi tankers massed in the Gulf and Iran relayed its Hormuz terms; the S&P 500 rose 1.49% to within 0.4% of its record. Intel (+12.17%), AMD (+9.95%) and Meta (+11.34%) lifted the Nasdaq 100 2.83%. Fed’s Musalem said more hikes are likely; the 2-year rose as the 10-year fell 4.2 bps. Paramount settled the states’ suit, sending WBD up 10.79%. Bitcoin jumped 7.57% to an eight-month high.
Tag Archives | Alberto Musalem
MIB Daily: Stocks Priced the End of the Oil Shock and the Fed Did Not, as Brent Slipped Below $100, Musalem Eyed More Hikes and Intel and Meta Jumped 11%+ With No Dated Catalyst Before the Trump-Xi Summit
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MIB Daily: The Backstop Lasted One Day, With Volatility Rising Alongside Yields to 5.248%, Walmart Down 9.15% on a Beat, and Memory and Bitcoin the Only Bid Before Warsh Speaks on August 28
Wednesday’s Treasury buyback rally unwound in one session — 30-year back to 5.248%, S&P -0.87%, Dow -1.32%, VIX +7.52%. Bessent promised a bigger program, and “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran: WTI +2.28%, gasoline a record for the date. Musalem and Daly split on whether the long end is a credibility warning. Walmart -9.15% on a comps miss. Memory bucked the tape again: Marvell +5.79%, Micron +3.97%. Bitcoin +5.07% past $72,000. Canada’s 50% duties attach Saturday with nothing published.
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MIB Daily: Record Day Six, Worst Profit Quarter in Six — PLTR +8.17%, ORCL +6.67%; PCE 3.8% Locks the Fed; Own Government AI, Fade the Grid
S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time records for a sixth straight session — PLTR +8.17%, ORCL +6.67% on JPMorgan’s ‘fourth hyperscaler’ call, AMD +4.55% — while Q1 GDP was revised to 1.6% and corporate profits collapsed -0.4% vs. +5.7% consensus. April PCE held at 3.8% with personal income flat, widening the consumer spending gap. LLY +4.05%: CVS Caremark restored Zepbound and approved oral GLP-1 Foundayo. Anthropic closed $65B at $965B. FOMC split: Williams holds; Musalem warns AI can’t rescue the Fed.
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MIB: Record S&P 500, AMD +18.6%, and a Hawkish Fed Pivot — Three Conflicting Signals on the Same Day
Markets hit all-time highs as Iran peace deal optimism crashed WTI -6% and AMD surged +18.6% on blowout Q1 earnings — Data Center +57%, Q2 guide $11.2B vs. $10.5B consensus; S&P +1.46%, Nasdaq 100 +2.09%. NVIDIA reclaimed $5T market cap on a $3.2B Corning optical deal. ADP April +109K sets up Friday’s binary NFP (range: 55K–165K). Fed’s Musalem and Goolsbee both turned hawkish, flagging rate hike scenarios even as oil crashed — April CPI May 12 is now pivotal.
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MIB: Triple Catalyst Day — Iran Ceasefire Crashes Oil, Record Bank Earnings Lift S&P Past 7,000, Trump Threatens Fed Independence
Trump threatens to fire Powell by May if he doesn’t resign, rattling bond markets. Oil crashes 7.87% as Iran ceasefire extended — Trump says war ‘very close to over.’ Fed Beige Book warns gas at $4/gallon and hiring freezes spreading. IEA sees first global oil demand decline since COVID. S&P 500 hits record 7,022 — above 7,000 for the first time. Tesla rockets 8% on AI5 chip milestone (UBS upgrades from Sell). BAC, MS, BLK all post record/near-record Q1 earnings.
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