WTI crashed 9.5% after Trump announced a 5-day pause on Iran strikes — but markets rallied, S&P 500 +1.15% back near 6,580. Gold shed 3.6% as safe-haven bids unwound. Palantir +6.7% on a Pentagon Maven AI contract. S&P reclaimed the 200-DMA after a 3-day streak below. GDPNow slipped to 2.0%, its lowest this cycle. Bitcoin +4.5% to $71K.
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MIB: WTI -9.5%, S&P Reclaims 200-DMA, Gold Unwinds as Iran Ceasefire Hopes Muddy the Picture
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MIB: Arrested, Crashed, and Breached — SMCI Co-Founder Busted, Semis Collapse, and S&P Falls Below Its 200-Day
Fed’s hawkish echo crushes markets: S&P -1.51%, VIX +11%, 200-DMA breached for first time in 214 sessions. Semis rout: INTC -5%, MU -4.81%, NVDA -3.28% on post-GTC sell-the-news. SMCI co-founder arrested for smuggling $2.5B in Nvidia chips to China (SMCI -28%). 10Y yields spike +10 bps to 4.384%. Iran targets Gulf energy — WTI hits $98. FedEx surges +9% after blockbuster beat-and-raise.
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MIB: Precious metals rout, Qatar struck again — Hormuz Week 3 Rewrites Every Portfolio Playbook
Gold crashes -5% through $5,000 as real yields spike — silver -6%, platinum -4%. Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG; Dutch TTF gas surges +13%. Chip equipment stocks surge (LRCX +4.13%, AMD +2.91%) on Micron AI beat, but MU -3.78% sell-the-news. Jobless claims 205K beat, defying stagflation fears. S&P -0.28% but Russell 2000 +0.64% as Israel pledges Hormuz reopening. FedEx beats AMC, raises guidance.
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MIB: Stagflation Trap — Hot PPI, Hawkish Fed, and $100 Oil Push Recession Odds to 49%
Hot PPI (+0.7% MoM) and a hawkish FOMC dot plot slam markets — S&P -1.36%, Dow -768 pts. WTI crude near $100 as Strait of Hormuz enters week three; Moody’s raises US recession odds to 49%. AbbVie -5.20% as J&J wins FDA approval for competing oral psoriasis drug. Mastercard -3.57% on $1.8B stablecoin BVNK acquisition. Micron (MU) reports record Q2 revenue of $23.86B AMC (+196% YoY); markets react Thursday.
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MIB: FOMC Day One, Oil Resumes Rally, Amazon’s $600B AI Bet, and a Brutal LLY Downgrade
Oil resumed its climb — WTI $96, Brent $103+ — as FOMC Day 1 began and Monday’s de-escalation optimism faded. Amazon CEO Jassy doubled AWS 10-year target to $600B on AI demand (AMZN +1%). HSBC issued a rare Sell on LLY (-5.3%) citing GLP-1 market TAM saturation and imminent price wars. February retail sales beat (+0.6%) showed the consumer holding firm. Delta (DAL +6%) and American (AAL +4%) lifted Q1 guidance — travel demand crushing oil cost headwinds.
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MIB: GTC Sparks Relief Rally — Nvidia’s $1T AI Forecast, FOMC Dot Plot, USMCA Launch, and the Hormuz Oil Clock
Nvidia’s GTC keynote delivers $1T AI chip order forecast (NVDA +2.2%), snapping the S&P’s 3-week losing streak (+1.01%). Meta plans to cut 20% of staff (16K jobs) to fund $135B AI build. USMCA formal review launches — US and Mexico
begin talks with a July 1 deadline. Oil retreats ~4% from overnight highs but Hormuz stays closed. FOMC convenes tomorrow; stagflation dot plot is the week’s defining risk. Bitcoin hits 6-week high ($74.5K, +3.7%).
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MIB: Q4 GDP Revised to 0.7%, Iran Vows Hormuz Shut, S&P Posts Third Weekly Loss, Adobe CEO Exits
Iran’s new supreme leader vows Hormuz closure permanent; WTI near $100 for second straight day. Q4 GDP revised to +0.7% — stagflation trap confirmed. S&P 500 records third consecutive weekly loss, Nasdaq -0.68%. Adobe (ADBE) -7.5% as CEO Narayen exits after 18 years despite record Q1 beat. Trump’s Russia oil sanctions relief fails, allies furious. All eyes on FOMC March 17-18 — Powell’s stagflation signal is next week’s defining risk.
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MIB: Iran Holds Hormuz, Section 301 Targets 16 Nations, Private Credit Cracks & FOMC March 18 in Crosshairs
Iran’s new supreme leader vows Hormuz stays shut; oil briefly tops $100/bbl as IEA’s 400M barrel release fails. S&P 500 -1.52% to YTD low; VIX spikes to 27.29. Trump launches Section 301 probes into 16 nations as Canada’s 25% steel tariffs lock in. Private credit cracks: Morgan Stanley gates $8B fund, Deutsche Bank flags $30B exposure. Dollar General -7.8% despite earnings beat. All eyes on FOMC March 17-18 — dot plot in spotlight.
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MIB: February CPI Calm Before Storm, IEA Record Oil Release, Oracle +12% as AI Cloud Demand Holds Firm
Oracle surges 12.2% as OCI results blow past estimates (RPO $553B), proving AI cloud demand is war-proof. IEA triggers largest-ever oil reserve release (400M barrels) but WTI holds above $86 — Hormuz still closed. February CPI tame at +2.4% — calm before the storm as energy shock hits March data. Centene (CNC) -14% as CEO warns ACA enrollment collapses 36%. Airlines down 30% YTD; energy sector +25% YTD. All eyes on Adobe Thursday and UMich Friday.
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MIB: Iran Day 11 — False Hormuz Tweet, Oracle AI Blowout, and Tomorrow’s Defining CPI Print
Iran Day 11: US launches “most intense strikes”; Iran attacks all 6 GCC nations. Energy Sec. Wright’s false Hormuz tweet sparked a $30 intraday oil crash — White House retracted in minutes. WTI settled -6.3% at $88.85; S&P seesawed -1.5% to +0.8% before closing -0.21%. Gold hit a new record at $5,211/oz (+2%). Oracle blows out Q3 AMC: Rev +22%, $553B RPO (+325% YoY). February CPI due tomorrow 8:30 AM — market-defining print.
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MIB: Oil Crosses $100, Record G7 SPR Release, FOMC Blackout Begins & February CPI Due Tomorrow
WTI crude breached $100/bbl intraday (peak $119) — biggest oil supply disruption in history. G7+IEA authorized a record 300-400M barrel SPR release. Trump told CBS “war is very complete” — Dow swung from -900 to +239 in hours (S&P +0.83%, Nasdaq +1.38%). NOC +6%, LMT hit all-time high as defense broke out. CCL -6%, RCL -4% as cruise lines bled. Oracle reports tonight; February CPI drops tomorrow.
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MIB: Stagflation Confirmed — 92K Jobs Vanish, WTI Hits $88, and Trump Demands Iran’s Unconditional Surrender
Feb payrolls -92K (S&P -1.3%), worst miss in years — unemployment jumped to 4.4%. Trump demands Iran ‘unconditional surrender’; WTI surged to $88 as Hormuz stays shut (Day 7). GDPNow crashed to 2.1% from 3.0% in four days. MRVL +23.2% on AI data center blowout. Fed cuts repriced to July; markets now price two 2026 cuts.
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MIB: Iran Missile Strike Sends Oil to $81, Airlines Crater, and Broadcom’s $100B AI Target Holds the Nasdaq Floor
Iran fires missile at US oil tanker; WTI surges 8% to $81, sending the Dow down 784 points. Airlines crash — UAL -6%, DAL -5% — as fuel shock materializes. Energy sector breaks to 52-week highs on oil windfall. AVGO +4.8% validated AI supercycle with CEO targeting $100B chip revenue by 2027. VIX spikes 19% to 25.26. February NFP jobs report Friday — the week’s defining moment.
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MIB: Senate Clears Iran Strikes, Services PMI Hits 4-Year High, and Broadcom’s AI Revenue Doubles to $8.4B
Iran peace talk whipsaws oil — NYT reports secret Iran-CIA outreach, Tehran denies; VIX tumbles from 26.4 to 20.4. Broadcom AI revenue doubles to $8.4B, Q2 guidance $22B (AVGO up AMC). ISM services PMI hits 56.1%, strongest since 2022. ADP +63K, but January slashed to 11K. CrowdStrike (CRWD) +1.79% on earnings digest; Ross Stores (ROST) +7% on Q4 beat. Senate defeats war powers resolution.
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MIB: Hormuz Crisis Day 3 — Oil +15%, Stagflation Signal Flashes, Fed Pulls Back on Rate Cuts
US-Iran war enters Day 3 — gold hit $5,417 record Monday, oil +15% this week. S&P 500 -0.94%, trimmed from intraday -2.5% loss after Trump’s Navy escort announcement. Fed’s Williams and Kashkari pull back from 2026 cut forecasts as 10Y yields rise on stagflation fears. UAL -4.09%, DAL -5% on fuel shock. Target (TGT) +7.5% on earnings beat. CrowdStrike beats after the bell.
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MIB: US-Israeli Strikes Kill Iran’s Khamenei, Qatar LNG Halted, Oil Surges 8% — Dell’s AI Blowout and the Stagflation Trap
US-Israeli “Operation Roaring Lion” kills Khamenei; Iran drones shut Qatar’s LNG plant. Oil surges 8.3% to $72.57 as Hormuz fears grip markets. S&P 500 cut intraday losses to close flat; VIX +12% to 22.40. Airlines cratered: AAL -7.4%, CCL -10%. Energy and defense surged: XOM +4.7%, PLTR +6.6%. Dell soared 22% Friday on AI server blowout ($43B backlog). ISM Manufacturing beat at 52.4 — but Prices Paid hit 70.5, an inflation alarm.
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MIB: January PPI Beats, China Tariffs Escalate, Iran Risk Surges, and Dell Defies the Tech Rout
Hot PPI (+0.5%) ignites stagflation fears, sending Dow -521 pts and 10Y yield below 4% for first time in 4 months. Trump announces extra 10% China tariff effective March 4. S&P 500 logs worst February since March 2025 on AI-inflation-tariff triple threat. Gold surges to $5,200+ record as US evacuates Israel embassy staff on Iran war fears. Dell (DELL +16.64%) bucks the selloff with record $9B AI server quarter.
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MIB: AI Sentiment Reset, Gold at Record $5,200, and the $30B Warner Bros. Bidding War
NVDA fell 5.5% despite record Q4 revenue ($68.1B, +73% YoY) — AI trade set to a new standard. Gold hit an all-time record above $5,200 as US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva approach Trump’s March 6 strike deadline. WBD board calls Paramount Skydance’s $31/share bid “superior” to Netflix, starting a 4-day bidding war. Dell surges 9% after hours on a $22B AI server backlog. Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals broad bank deregulation. Nasdaq -1.2%, Russell +0.5% — sharpest rotation in months.
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MIB: PCE Re-Accelerates, Consumer Confidence Craters, and Nvidia Defies the Macro
Nvidia reported Q4 EPS of $1.62 (est. $1.53) with revenue of $68.1B and guided Q1 to $78B — sending shares +6% after-hours on a near-record beat. Markets shrugged off Trump’s SOTU optimism as economists warned the SCOTUS tariff reversal won’t translate to lower consumer prices. December PCE Core re-accelerated to 3.0% YoY — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge moving in the wrong direction and eliminating any realistic H1 rate cut. Silver surged 3.4% to near $90/oz while First Solar cratered 18% on a brutal guidance miss. S&P 500 +0.81%, Nasdaq +1.26%.
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The Recession Warning With an Asterisk
For over 2 years now, our commentary has made the point that the labor market – more particularly Payroll Employment and the Employment Level household surveys – were the “last man standing” in a sea of negative or weak leading data. For this reason, the NBER coincident models (all 3 of them) were not confirming recession. However the latest Friday BLS downward revisions, on top of countless before them, are becoming the straw that could break the camels’ back. The […]
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