NOTE : All images and charts displayed below are regularly updated and available to subscribers from the CHARTS menu. The SP-500 has enjoyed an incredible 40% rally since the 23 March lows. This was mostly fueled by an unprecedented FED stimulus program, which is now coming to an end within the next few weeks: Unless more stimulus is unleashed (and a further $1.5-$2 trillion seems likely) the risks of a stock market selloff are high, especially given that the market […]

Note : Most charts shown below are available to subscribers in the COVID19 analytics section. Summary Economic mobility in US increasing at a slower pace than Covid-19 infections, contrary to rest of G7. At a state level, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts & Michigan are leading economic mobility recovery vs infections. US has moved from a peaked scenario to join a host of second-wave countries struggling to contain infections after lockdowns. Stock market is going to struggle to post new […]

The National Bureau for Economic Research (NBER) has announced official start dates for the 2020 US recession. It is very rare for such quick pronouncements (they are normally made 9-12 months after the fact) but the fact that 90% of the economy came to a sudden halt, has led to such deep declines in their metrics that they could make an early pronunciation without risk of being proven wrong later. The monthly economic peak was declared as February 2020 (first […]

The STM Seasonality Model is a unique composite that looks at average monthly gains, gain-to-loss ratios and percentage of winning months for 1,2,3 and 4 year cycles to arrive at a composite seasonality score for each month. For the last 18 months, the model has been running at 80% directional accuracy on calls on the SP500 future direction which is rather remarkable given the strange times we are living in. Even though May month was forecast as a non-leveraged long […]

We examined SP-500 behavior in the lead to and during US recessions a few years ago in an old research note (Recession – Just how much warning is useful anyway?) to conclude that more than 5-months warning before a recession was not constructive, and that you should focus on recession warning models that stuck to a 4-6 month historical lead time as close as possible. Given the “voluntary” sudden-stop of the U.S economy due to Coronavirus lock-downs, we are faced […]

Businesses are going to be shuttered in massive numbers as the U.S has to deal with the unavoidable nationwide lock-down that will be required to contain the highly contagious Coronavirus. From our Covid19 Dashboard we maintain for our subscribers, we can see that the number of cases is rising according to a quadratic equation that will yield over 100,000 cases by the end of this week and over 500,000 cases by 7th April (assuming trends hold.) Hospitalizations are running at […]

Further to our March 5th 2020 warning on a looming Coronavirus (COVID19)  global pandemic, the WHO has finally recognized as such and declared the outbreak an official global pandemic. It is not hard to see why, when one looks at the chart below: Whilst China has managed to stabilize new infections (assuming their numbers are to be trusted) the rest of the world does not have the luxury of their socialist command-and-control government, hospital building productivity, general mobilization, hive-mind population […]

The newly reported cases of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in China appear to be tapering off, but it is the recent uptick of newly reported cases outside China that have reached alarming levels, resulting in total cases accelerating to just under 100,000: The secondary round of infections, most likely from travelers from China before the largest quarantine in human history, is evident when one looks at the progress in the number of countries reporting confirmed infections, with a marked jump since […]

These days, its really hard to find worrying signs in US labor data. If one looks at the once famous Janet Yellen Labor Dashboard, apart from Job Openings, everything looks to be progressing fine, bar a small pullback here and there: Sure, the employment-to-population ratio (participation) has not come close to peak achieved in the last business cycle but everything else has.Even the equal-weighted 52-state US national average unemployment rate has been falling nicely to multi-decade lows. But dig a […]

For two years, our comprehensive U.S monthly Leading Index (USMLEI) has been deteriorating, more recently to worrisome levels, with exactly half of the 23 components now in recession territory: What was really alarming was that this was occurring against the background of elevated RAVI local stock market valuations, an inverted yield curve, a deteriorating Global LEI, a US housing market recession and a global trade recession. We think the worst is likely over however. Notwithstanding a likely de-escalation in the […]

Most of our breadth and liquidity indices are updated end-of-day with the exception of Great Trough Detector(GTR), Selling Pressure Diffusion (SPD) Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) These 3 models above are updated every 15-min during the course of a trading day. PRO subscription clients will from now on also be able to see the following new models updated every 15-minutes: New improved Short-Term liquidity index (STL2) New improved Medium-Term liquidity index (MTL2) New improved Average Liquidity index (ALIX2) During the remainder […]

It appears U.S investors’ concerns with global trade wars are dominating U.S stock market direction for the last two years: This is with valid reason, as prior research of ours (Global Economy affects U.S stock market returns) has pointed out that whilst a global recession does not necessarily result in a U.S recession, it can certainly lead to one if the U.S economy is vulnerable. Additionally that research pointed out  much bigger than expected correlations between U.S stock market returns […]