The Strait of Hormuz war escalated all week — a reinstated blockade, six nights of US strikes, and a Friday threat to close a second chokepoint — pushing oil up 15%. A parallel AI-capex credibility crisis pushed the semiconductor index into a bear market, even as PayPal surged 16-17% on a $53 billion takeover bid from Stripe and Advent. IBM crashed 25% (worst since 1987) while Goldman Sachs surged 9% to a record high, and the Fed stayed hawkish despite cooling inflation.
Tag Archives | TSMC
MIB Weekly: SOX -20% Into a Bear Market as PANW Hits Records and Oil Jumps 15% — the Fed Still Won’t Blink Despite Cooling CPI
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MIB Daily: Wall Street Punished TSM’s Beat-and-Raise (-4.6%, Nasdaq 100 -1.62%) as Yields Climb and Housing’s 15th Warning Sign Tests the Fed’s July 28-29 Call
Chipmakers cratered after TSMC’s (TSM) capex hike to $60-64B revived AI-spending fears, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.62% as the S&P 500 held to -0.51%. Philly Fed manufacturing tripled estimates to a five-year high and claims hit a 10-week low, pushing yields up as Dallas Fed’s Logan pushed for “modestly higher” rates. The US struck Iran a fifth night and revoked its oil waiver, yet Brent eased on bearish inventories. Pending home sales sank 5.4% as mortgage rates hit 6.64%.
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MIB Daily: Oil Crashed on a “Fabrication,” Cook Still Wants to Hike, SNOW Surged 34% — Stagflation Verdict Thursday
Iran state media’s Hormuz peace framework crashed WTI 4.69% to $89.49 and lifted the Dow to record 50,670; the White House called it a “complete fabrication.” Fed Governor Cook issued 2026’s clearest hike signal — “I am prepared to raise rates” — with April PCE at 3.8% due Thursday. Snowflake surged 34% on record sequential growth and a $6B AWS deal; QCOM shed 6% after a near-30% weekly run. Thursday’s GDP, PCE, and durables are the year’s peak positioning risk.
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MIB: Ceasefire Rip — Record Close, AI Chips Ignite, and a 10-Day Clock Starts Ticking
Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire triggers global risk-on rally, erasing Iran war equity losses worldwide. AMD surged +7.80% as TSMC’s 58% profit surge and 30%-plus AI chip demand guidance lit up the semiconductor sector. NFLX crushed Q1 EPS (+62%) but Q2 guidance disappointed and Reed Hastings stepped down as chairman. PLD beat by 30% as data centers now represent 40% of its development pipeline. US claims fell to 207K; industrial production missed badly at -0.5%.
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MIB: All-Time Low — Consumer Sentiment Collapses as CPI Stalls the Fed and Semis Soar on Tariff Relief
March CPI hit 3.3% (gasoline +21.2%) but core held at 2.6% — Fed stuck. Michigan consumer sentiment crashed to an all-time low of 47.6. Semis surged on Trump tariff exemptions (AVGO +4.69%, AMD +3.55%). TSMC confirmed AI demand is booming: Q1 revenue +35% to $35.7B. Meta locked in $21B with CoreWeave through 2032 (META +3.4%). FICO plunged 14% as the Senate opened a probe into mortgage credit score pricing.
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