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MIB Daily: Iran’s oil move does what eight months of hawkishness couldn’t — WTI −4.2% to $81 reopens the easing path, PHLX Semi +7.9% confirms AI broadening, and Warsh’s dot-plot Wednesday is the verdict

By RecessionALERT on June 15, 2026 in Reflections

US-Iran peace deal formalizes Hormuz reopening — WTI −4.2% to $81 unlocks the rate-path debate ahead of Wednesday’s Warsh FOMC. Computex 2026: PHLX Semi +7.9%, MU +11%, WDC +16%; HBM4 sold out through year-end. SPCX +19% Day 2 to $192; $2.5T market cap passes Apple. Fox acquires Roku for $22B; FOXA −16%. Empire State June 5.7 vs. 14.0 exp. — tariff front-running demand reversal confirmed. Housing 26th consecutive sub-50; 35% of builders cutting prices; Starts data due Tuesday.

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MIB: Narrow Record — Intel Blowout and DOJ-Powell Resolution Lift S&P/Nasdaq as UMich Hits All-Time Low

By RecessionALERT on April 24, 2026 in Reflections

S&P 500 (+0.80%) and Nasdaq 100 (+1.95%) hit fresh records as Intel (+23.6%) blew out Q1 — best day since 1987 — dragging AMD (+13.9%) and NVDA (+4.3%, back above $5T). But the rally was narrow: Dow (-0.16%), Transports (-0.94%), NYSE Composite all red. DOJ dropped its Powell probe, clearing Warsh’s path; 10Y slipped to 4.31%. UMich sentiment crashed to a record-low 49.8 with 1-year inflation expectations spiking to 4.7%. Mega-cap tech earnings loom next week.

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