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MIB Daily: AVGO -12.6% Exposes AI Hardware’s Pricing Trap — Dow ATH Hides Labor Stagflation Heading Into Friday’s NFP

By RecessionALERT on June 4, 2026 in Reflections

AVGO −12.6% after AI chip guidance ($16B Q3) missed by $1.2B; SOX −2.8%, MU −7.74%. UNH +5.7% on dual BofA/MS upgrades lifted Healthcare +3.06% to drive the Dow to an ATH at 51,562. Ceasefire news cut WTI $3 to $93. Jobless claims 225K (highest since February) confirmed labor softening; Challenger’s 97K May cuts — 40% AI-driven — are a record. IMF extended the US inflation timeline to end-2027 ahead of Warsh’s first FOMC; Friday NFP consensus: 85K.

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MIB Daily: MRVL +33%, S&P 7,600 on Huang’s Computex Crown — Hammack’s Hike Signal Makes Friday’s NFP the Market’s Next Binary

By RecessionALERT on June 2, 2026 in Reflections

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang named Marvell “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex — MRVL +33%, chip equipment up 5-7%, S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time. Alphabet’s $80B equity offering to fund AI capex sent GOOGL -4%; Berkshire took a $10B stake. FTC broadened antitrust probe into Microsoft’s cloud/AI bundling (MSFT -4%). JOLTS April surged 731K above consensus as Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warned a rate hike “may soon be appropriate,” pushing 2026 hike odds to 34% with WTI above $93.

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MIB: Records Across the Board — Semiconductor Surge, Hormuz Transits, and Strong JOLTS Lift Markets While ISM Flashes Demand Warning

By RecessionALERT on May 5, 2026 in Reflections

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 hit simultaneous all-time highs Tuesday as Apple–Intel US chip manufacturing talks (INTC +13%) and Iran’s failure to strike energy infrastructure drove WTI –3.65% to $102. Project Freedom’s first Hormuz commercial ship transits confirmed the ceasefire is intact. ISM Services held at 53.6% but New Orders plunged 7.1pp — highest-since-2022 Prices Paid (70.7%) signal stagflation risk persists. JOLTS hires surged +655K to 5.6M; GDPNow Q2 upgraded to 3.7%; AMD reports after close tonight.

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MIB: Rally on Borrowed Peace — Iran Hopes Lift S&P 2.9% but $100 Oil and a Quantum Threat Linger

By RecessionALERT on March 31, 2026 in Reflections

S&P 500 +2.91% and Nasdaq +3.43% on WSJ report Trump is willing to end Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Gas hits $4/gallon — highest since 2022 — even as peace talks start. Oracle cut 30,000 jobs (18% of workforce) to fund AI data centers; $58B in new debt. Google warned quantum computers could crack Bitcoin in 9 minutes. Eli Lilly acquired Centessa for $7.8B to enter narcolepsy drugs. Nike beat Q3 estimates but fell 3% AH on weak China.

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