WTI crude fell 9% as the US and Iran confirmed a 60-day Hormuz ceasefire, deflating the energy inflation premium that locked the Fed out of cuts — but Warsh’s inaugural FOMC promptly reclaimed that space: 9 of 18 members projected a 2026 hike, pushing 2Y yields to a 14-month high. Against both forces, the SOX hit a record as Trump’s Apple–Intel foundry deal capped a week where AI hardware proved rate-cycle-agnostic.
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MIB Weekly: WTI -9% (Iran MoU), 2Y +9 bps (Warsh Hike Signal), SOX Record (Apple-Intel) — Which Inflation Arc Wins H2?
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MIB Daily: SOX +6% Record on Apple-Intel, Iran Unwinds Gold and Energy — Warsh Hikes, Housing Cracks, Bond Market Refuses to Celebrate
Trump confirmed Apple will build chips at Intel’s foundry, sending SOX up 6% to a record and INTC +10.6% — AI hardware is now rate-cycle-agnostic as Nasdaq gained 2.48% on the day Warsh signaled a 2026 rate hike. Gold plunged 3.51% and silver 7.05% as Iran MOU execution unwound two risk premiums simultaneously. Accenture collapsed 16-18% on a guidance cut, crystallizing AI’s bifurcation: hardware thrives while IT consulting implodes. Housing starts plunged 15.4% in May; Philly Prices Paid surged to 53.2.
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MIB Daily: Semiconductors Declared Most Crowded in History, Then Imploded — Warsh’s Dot-Plot Could Do the Same to Rotation
BofA declared semiconductors the most crowded trade in history — MRVL -9.78%, AMD -7.30%, INTC -8.45% — while the Dow hit its 17th record on Financials and Industrials rotation. Kevin Warsh opens his inaugural FOMC with a rate hold expected but a hawkish dot-plot likely; May housing starts collapsed -15.4% to 1.177M (weakest since 2020) and import prices surged to 6.7% YoY. WTI -5.09% on Iran peace deal repricing. SpaceX acquired Cursor for $60B, crossing a $2.8T valuation to overtake Amazon.
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MIB Daily: WMT –7.3% converts soft data to hard guidance — Flash PMI prices hit 2022 high, IBM wins foundry, NVDA can’t hold its beat
IBM surged +12% on a $1B CHIPS Act quantum foundry award, fueling a broad AI-semiconductor rally. Walmart cratered -7.27%, citing tariffs and fuel in a guidance miss that flags real consumer stress. The Philadelphia Fed collapsed 27 points to -0.4 as new orders turned negative, while Flash PMI input prices hit a post-2022 high. Richmond Fed’s Barkin questioned whether five-plus years above target still justifies the ‘look through’ doctrine. NVDA fell -1.77% despite 85% revenue growth — its fourth post-earnings decline.
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MIB Daily: WTI Below $100 and NVDA’s $81.6B Beat — Can Iran Hold Long Enough to Kill December’s Rate Hike?
Dow crossed 50,000 as Trump declared Iran talks ‘in final stages,’ crashing WTI -5.7% to $98 and pulling the 10-year yield -9 bps. NVIDIA Q1 beat ($81.6B, +85% YoY; Q2 guide $89-93B, $80B buyback) lifted AMD +8.1% and INTC +7.4%. Russell 2000 led all indices at +2.51% as rate-sensitive small-caps caught the yield-relief bid. April FOMC minutes put a majority on record for hiking; December probability above 50%. 20-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.12% with below-average demand, post-Moody’s.
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