What’s Really Happening and How to Protect Your Portfolio Last Updated: October 27, 2025 (Day 24 of shutdown) The Bottom Line Up Front What you need to know in 60 seconds: The government shutdown is now in its 24th day, and it’s different from past shutdowns in one critical way: Food stamp benefits (SNAP) will stop for 42 million Americans starting November 1st. This creates a $12 billion hole in consumer spending every month it continues. Our best estimate: The […]

Executive Summary As the US government shutdown enters its 24th day, fund managers require a sophisticated analytical framework that properly identifies the primary market drivers. This analysis employs a hybrid approach: a 2×3 matrix capturing independent variables (duration × workforce impact), dynamic decision-tree triggers for tactical rebalancing, and regime-change assessment for strategic positioning. Critical Insight on Causality: The primary equity market risk is not the 5,000-15,000 federal layoffs themselves (only 0.01% of total employment), but rather the SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition […]

1.Introduction In the three days following President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on April 2, 2025, dubbed “Liberation Day,” the U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic downturn, often referred to as the “Trump Tariff Tantrum.” (TTT) The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted over 2,200 points, with the S&P 500 dropping nearly 5% and the Nasdaq falling close to 6% by April 4, erasing post-election gains and wiping out an estimated $5-6.4 trillion in market value. The tariffs, including a […]

Economic Wrap is a quarterly series aimed at taking an objective, evidence-based balanced view snapshot of the US and Global economies – which of course has major implications on all stock markets. It references publicly available data at the time as well as more advanced or sophisticated proprietary models from RecessionALERT that are not publicly available. In summary, the analysis below provides an evidence-based analysis of the U.S. and global economies, highlighting a complex outlook. The U.S. labor market remains […]

Introduction The U.S. economy is highly interconnected with global markets, geopolitical events, and domestic policies. A variety of risks—ranging from international conflicts to domestic policy missteps—could negatively impact economic growth, potentially triggering a recession. Below is an analysis of the top geopolitical risks that could negatively impact the US economy and potentially lead to a recession. Each risk includes an estimated likelyhood of occurrence, potential unfolding of negative outcomes, GDP impact, estimated S&P 500 downside, key stock sectors affected, recession […]

Global Slowdown? What Global Slowdown? We can’t see it. Maybe we are blind. Total world economic activity as measured from the average of world trade volumes and industrial production, saw a soft landing but is clearly on an upward trajectory: World trade volumes (average of imports and exports) in particular are showing strong growth, emerging convincingly from its recent trough: The % of OECD countries with a positive rolling four-quarter cumulative GDP is back up to 75% having posted its […]