About Dwaine Van Vuuren

Dwaine has a Bachelor of Science honors degree and is a full-time trader and investor. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT into a company used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms and financial advisers around the world. A gifted educator, he’ll have you trading and investing with confidence & discipline.
Author Archive | Dwaine Van Vuuren

SP-500 Liquidity Crunch Warning

Download article as PDF Losses on the SP-500 on Friday 11th saw all our measures of breadth-liquidity fall into contraction, warning of a highly vulnerable market subject to further liquidity tightness and raised volatility. To many of my staff that actively trade the SP-500, this is treated  as a bona fide correction warning. If you [...]

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The HiLo Breadth Indexes for SP-500

Download article as PDF The HILO breadth index was developed  by RecessionALERT for detecting short and  medium-term SP-500 stock market peaks in advance. It deploys the following daily breadth data taken from the SP-500 index: New 13-week (quarterly) highs New 13-week (quarterly) lows New 52-week (annual) highs New 52-week (annual) lows The above data is [...]

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Yellen’s Labor Dashboard suggests tightening in 2016

Download article as PDF Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen recently used her “jobs data dashboard”  to justify the Fed’s easy money policies and to argue there’s still considerable slack in the labor market  five years after the recession’s end. Seven of the nine gauges on  this dashboard have not recovered to levels reached before the last [...]

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U.S future economic outlook improves

Download article as PDF The RecessionALERT monthly U.S Leading Growth Index (USMLI) is an index that attempts to capture  future (6-9 months) U.S economic growth. The index has been constructed since 1960, but this report only displays data from 2000 onwards to capture the last two recessions. The USMLI consist of  10 sub-components that are in [...]

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Seasonality approaching its worst point

Download article as PDF We have entered the Mid-Term cycle in the Quadrennial Presidential Cycle, in which the months April through to September typically represent the worst SP-500 seasonal period for the entire 4 year cycle. The current cycle which commenced in 2012 has performed way above average so far, as shown below with the [...]

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FED in the driving seat

Download article as PDF The chart below shows how the FED is firmly in the driving seat for the U.S stock markets through the monthly growth of their balance sheet, primarily through the purchase of U.S Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities. You can clearly see why talk of tapering sends shudders down everyone’s spine: It [...]

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Labor Market flags U.S Recession on horizon

Download article as PDF Labor data last week surprised to the upside and pointed to an improvement in hiring and by implication the labor market. However, our leading Labor Market Growth Index, which tracks various diversified aspects of the general U.S labor market, experienced a sharp drop for the data representing the end of  October [...]

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Things could get fun from here…

Download article as PDF At last, a decent pullback with a fat red candle on the SP-500. If the premise (see “Seven Paw-prints of the Bear“) is that we are in a well established bull market (we don’t care if its liquidity or economically fueled) then this could become a desperately needed “buy on the dip” [...]

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Market Update 17/10/13 [PUBLIC]

Download article as PDF The political standoff associated with the debt ceiling and government shutdown has made its impact felt the last 3 weeks on the weekly leading data. Two out of the 5 main components of the WLInr are now firmly planted in recession warning territory with some 30% of all underlying 50 weekly [...]

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Market Timing Strategies – putting it all together

Download article as PDF We offer a number of timing strategies for the SP-500 as described below: 1.Long-term investment models These are primarily focused on funds-grade long-term investing models such as the Recession Forecasting Ensemble (RFE) and the Composite Market Health Index (CMHI). These are high confidence, infrequent traders. They attempt to capture as much [...]

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Zweig Breadth Thrust – The RecessionALERT Redux

Download article as PDF Martin  Zweig was an American stock investor, investment adviser, and financial analyst. According to Forbes Magazine, he was renowned for his “eccentric and lavish lifestyle” as well as having had the most expensive residence in the United States at the time, atop The Pierre on Fifth avenue in Manhattan.  He was [...]

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World Economy Update – as at July 2013

Download article as PDF These are extracts compiled from our monthly World Economy Report that comes standard with a RecessionALERT annual subscription: It does not matter which way you look at it – the global economy has rebounded into growth territory from which surely could have been classified as a World Recession a few quarters [...]

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Measuring Selling Pressure for Market Entry Timing

Download article as PDF This project uses a composite approach to constructing a broad representation of selling pressure on the SP-500 Index, for the purposes of gauging intensity of corrections, identifying ideal buying points for “buy on the dip” opportunities and provision of warnings of oncoming corrections. The motivation behind using many measurements for selling [...]

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SuperCycle Seasonal Timing Methodology for the SP-500

Download article as PDF MODEL UPDATE – 21 October 2013 The long-only strategy (STM L) is performing 1.7 times that of the SP-500 buy-&-hold whilst the long and short strategy (STM L+S)  is performing 3.1 times that of the SP-500 buy-&-hold since January 2009 (latter part of 2007-2013 out-of sample period.) Both models under-performed the [...]

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Seven Paw-prints of the Bear

Download article as PDF For decades, investors have sought out methods to detect oncoming bear markets. With this current bull market now in its 5th year the subject has become even more topical – “Has the bull market still got legs?” is a question pondered every day by millions of investors. In this research note, [...]

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Market Update 11/07/2013

Download article as PDF The SuperIndex has jumped smartly this week from mostly positive data from eLEI and the ISM report. However growth in ETI, GDP and Initial claims has slowed. A few months back on this radio interview we forecast there would be no “Summer Swoon” for the monthly leading data as with the [...]

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Don’t count on FED tapering any time soon

Download article as PDF Whilst the market has sold off in the expectation of FED tapering in the face of an improving economy, and co-incident economic data continues to show improvement, the leading data is likely to do otherwise in the coming months. This means that after an initial improvement of short duration the pressure [...]

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World Recession Update – May 2013

Download article as PDF We have first quarter 2013 GDP data for about 53% of the OECD countries list. The full World Economy Report is available from the MEMBERS downloads section in the WORLD REPORT tab. There are a number of interesting observations we can make this month. The first is that whilst the percentage [...]

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The SP500 Market Timing project

Download article as PDF Currently, RecessionALERT subscribers deploy the Recession Forecasting Ensemble (RFE) to match  their equity allocation to recession risk. But the assumption in our RFE research note was that you would simply “buy and hold” the stock market during periods of low recession risk. This provided for far superior risk-adjusted returns across many [...]

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Atypical Global Recovery underway

Download article as PDF Since we last reported on the current Global Recession, the Global Leading Economic Indicator (GLEI) rose for the month of March, but is following an atypical growth pattern coming out of recession, with a slope far shallower than the normal expected rebound. Also noteworthy this month is that the percentage of [...]

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