About Dwaine Van Vuuren

Dwaine has a Bachelor of Science honors degree and is a full-time trader and investor. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT into a company used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms and financial advisers around the world.
Author Archive | Dwaine Van Vuuren

Mixed Signals from Labor Market

Download article as PDF We keep getting good news about employment and the labor market. But we rarely see the less optimistic numbers. THE GOOD Yellen’s Labor Dashboard (see here) is looking strong with all but 3 of the 9 components above pre-recession levels: The Employment Trend Index briefly wavered but now seems to be […]

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U.S Economy remains vulnerable

Download article as PDF It is interesting to see the recent re-appearance of articles relating to flashing warning signals of recession (see here and here and here) It is true that some genuinely troubling signals are starting to make themselves known. Let’s look at some of them. Heavy Duty Truck sales, a reliable long-leading indicator […]

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Unemployment more widespread than thought

Download article as PDF The Total Non-farm Payrolls data made another solid print for the month of July 2016, leading to the assumption that all is good with employment in the U.S: Similarly, if we examine the countrywide Civilian Unemployment Rate, we also get reassuring signs: However, if we dig deeper and examine the per-state […]

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NBER’s Big-4 Indicators had a narrow miss

Download article as PDF Reading through all the positive press about jobs numbers and so forth, its hard to comprehend that the 4 main indicators used by the National Buro of Economic Research (NBER) to determine US recessions, had a narrow miss recently. If you recall from our popular 2012 article, the NBER does not […]

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Number of countries with back-to-back negative quarterly GDP prints is rising

Download article as PDF The percentage of 41 OECD countries around the globe that have just posted a negative 1Q2016 on the back of a negative  4Q2015 (old fashion technical recession) has started to rise. Its nothing to be concerned about just yet but the rise itself, although shallow, is something worth watching as 2Q2016 […]

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U.S Economy most vulnerable to any shock since 2008

Download article as PDF The #Brexit vote caught the consensus view off-guard and stock markets, currencies and commodity prices have made large responses. This may be bringing up thoughts if Brexit could be the external shock that marks the decent of the U.S economy. Whilst we will not entertain making predictions on this complex matter, […]

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Recession Probability Roundup : Elevated levels

Download article as PDF NOTE : This is a subscriber-only article that was made open for public viewership on 20 May 2016. A few subscribers have been concerned by the recent jump in recession odds of the Headwinds Index model to 60% A probability of recession of 60% most certainly also implies probability of no […]

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Over 30% of States with rising unemployment

Download article as PDF The March 2016 figures are in for state-wide unemployment and the percentage of states with growing unemployment has risen to over 30% now: The useful thing with this breadth metric is that deterioration in unemployment is made visible long before it shows up in the average national unemployment rate. Whereas the […]

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Labor market not as strong as you think

Download article as PDF The strength of the labor market is constantly being trotted out in defense of the robust status of the US economy, but broad sets of labor data show this not to be the case. First, let us examine a very broad US labor market growth metric: This indicator needs to fall […]

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Animation : The incredible US employment recovery

Download article as PDF Below is an animation of the annual average unemployment rate per U.S state from 2011 onward. It’s quite incredible to see how unemployment was erased state-by-state over the years: However statewide improvements in employment have probably peaked-out as shown in the chart below, which depicts the aggregate (equal weighted) inverse 6-month […]

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How can we forecast 30% upside for 2016 with RAVI?

Download article as PDF The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is currently forecasting 30% growth for 2016 for the SP500 with its 1-year forecast model. “How the heck is this possible given current overvaluation of the market?” we can hear you say. Let us show you how this is calculated so we can put the forecast […]

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A new long-leading US index

Download article as PDF We have been watching the deterioration in the short leading indicators diverging from the story been told on our long-leading indicator (USLLGI) with some interest. It has always been puzzling (and concerning) how long leading data was telling a different story to the short leading data. The lack of long-leading data […]

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A U.S Weekly Leading Economic Index

Download article as PDF RecessionALERT.com has constructed a Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) for the U.S Economy that draws from over 50  time-series from the following broad categories Corporate Bond Market Composite Treasury Bond Market Composite Stock Market Composite Labor Market Composite Credit Market Composite Being a weekly growth index, it provides data with at […]

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Risk of U.S Economic Recession

Download article as PDF A raft of analysts, perma-bears and bloggers are playing fast and loose with the R-word again. This is likely to reach a crescendo with the release today of the unexpected large drop in the ISM non-manufacturing survey.  We recall a time in late 2011 when the mainstream perception was that we […]

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The SP-500 200-day average “Goodbye Kiss”

Download article as PDF The SP-500 today has met back with its 200-day moving average after spending a “protracted period” of 46 trading days below it. Contrary to popular belief, history since 1972 shows this to be a bearish event, with more downside likely. Many participants on the stock markets like to use the 200-day […]

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Yellen Labor Dashboard reaches target

Download article as PDF “Full Employment” target reached Shortly after taking up office, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen  used her “jobs data dashboard”  to justify the Fed’s easy money policies and to argue there’s still considerable slack in the labor market  five years after the recession’s end. Seven of the nine gauges on  this dashboard had […]

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Global Slowdown – Does it affect the U.S?

Download article as PDF There is no question that the Global Economy is languishing. Now, with weakness in US economic data starting to filter through, the big question that arises is if the U.S will be dragged down by the global economy. The U.S is a very insular economy and whilst there can be no […]

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Things that go bump in the night

Download article as PDF The U.S economy appears unstoppable right now. Just about every leading and co-incident indicator you can think of is pointing to positive growth. Among the hundreds of indicators we follow for our models on a daily basis, we have discovered a few that are displaying worrying trends and flagging a future recession. […]

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SP-500 Returns Forecast, 4Q2014

Download article as PDF The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is a multifactor valuation model that examines cyclically adjusted trailing SP-500 earnings (various multi-decade horizons), the SP-500 total-return index level, total stock market capitalization, Gross Domestic Product, non-financial corporate equities and liabilities, non-financial corporate business net-worth and percentage of investors’ allocation to stocks versus cash and […]

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Stresses are building up in the system

Download article as PDF Despite a steady rise in the SP-500 Index, clear and persistent financial stresses are starting to build up in the system. We construct a composite of the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, the Cleveland Financial Stress Index, the Kansas City Financial Stress Index and the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions […]

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