About Dwaine Van Vuuren

Dwaine has a Bachelor of Science honors degree and is a full-time trader and investor. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT into a company used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms and financial advisers around the world.
Author Archive | Dwaine Van Vuuren

Recession Probability Roundup : Elevated levels

Download article as PDF NOTE : This is a subscriber-only article that was made open for public viewership on 20 May 2016. A few subscribers have been concerned by the recent jump in recession odds of the Headwinds Index model to 60% A probability of recession of 60% most certainly also implies probability of no […]

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Over 30% of States with rising unemployment

Download article as PDF The March 2016 figures are in for state-wide unemployment and the percentage of states with growing unemployment has risen to over 30% now: The useful thing with this breadth metric is that deterioration in unemployment is made visible long before it shows up in the average national unemployment rate. Whereas the […]

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Labor market not as strong as you think

Download article as PDF The strength of the labor market is constantly being trotted out in defense of the robust status of the US economy, but broad sets of labor data show this not to be the case. First, let us examine a very broad US labor market growth metric: This indicator needs to fall […]

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Animation : The incredible US employment recovery

Download article as PDF Below is an animation of the annual average unemployment rate per U.S state from 2011 onward. It’s quite incredible to see how unemployment was erased state-by-state over the years: However statewide improvements in employment have probably peaked-out as shown in the chart below, which depicts the aggregate (equal weighted) inverse 6-month […]

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How can we forecast 30% upside for 2016 with RAVI?

Download article as PDF The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is currently forecasting 30% growth for 2016 for the SP500 with its 1-year forecast model. “How the heck is this possible given current overvaluation of the market?” we can hear you say. Let us show you how this is calculated so we can put the forecast […]

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A new long-leading US index

Download article as PDF We have been watching the deterioration in the short leading indicators diverging from the story been told on our long-leading indicator (USLLGI) with some interest. It has always been puzzling (and concerning) how long leading data was telling a different story to the short leading data. The lack of long-leading data […]

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A U.S Weekly Leading Economic Index

Download article as PDF RecessionALERT.com has constructed a Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) for the U.S Economy that draws from over 50  time-series from the following broad categories Corporate Bond Market Composite Treasury Bond Market Composite Stock Market Composite Labor Market Composite Credit Market Composite Being a weekly growth index, it provides data with at […]

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Risk of U.S Economic Recession

Download article as PDF A raft of analysts, perma-bears and bloggers are playing fast and loose with the R-word again. This is likely to reach a crescendo with the release today of the unexpected large drop in the ISM non-manufacturing survey.  We recall a time in late 2011 when the mainstream perception was that we […]

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The SP-500 200-day average “Goodbye Kiss”

Download article as PDF The SP-500 today has met back with its 200-day moving average after spending a “protracted period” of 46 trading days below it. Contrary to popular belief, history since 1972 shows this to be a bearish event, with more downside likely. Many participants on the stock markets like to use the 200-day […]

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Yellen Labor Dashboard reaches target

Download article as PDF “Full Employment” target reached Shortly after taking up office, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen  used her “jobs data dashboard”  to justify the Fed’s easy money policies and to argue there’s still considerable slack in the labor market  five years after the recession’s end. Seven of the nine gauges on  this dashboard had […]

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Global Slowdown – Does it affect the U.S?

Download article as PDF There is no question that the Global Economy is languishing. Now, with weakness in US economic data starting to filter through, the big question that arises is if the U.S will be dragged down by the global economy. The U.S is a very insular economy and whilst there can be no […]

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Things that go bump in the night

Download article as PDF The U.S economy appears unstoppable right now. Just about every leading and co-incident indicator you can think of is pointing to positive growth. Among the hundreds of indicators we follow for our models on a daily basis, we have discovered a few that are displaying worrying trends and flagging a future recession. […]

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SP-500 Returns Forecast, 4Q2014

Download article as PDF The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is a multifactor valuation model that examines cyclically adjusted trailing SP-500 earnings (various multi-decade horizons), the SP-500 total-return index level, total stock market capitalization, Gross Domestic Product, non-financial corporate equities and liabilities, non-financial corporate business net-worth and percentage of investors’ allocation to stocks versus cash and […]

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Stresses are building up in the system

Download article as PDF Despite a steady rise in the SP-500 Index, clear and persistent financial stresses are starting to build up in the system. We construct a composite of the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, the Cleveland Financial Stress Index, the Kansas City Financial Stress Index and the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions […]

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Valuation estimate of SP500 2015 returns : 2,246 target

Download article as PDF The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is a multifactor valuation model that examines cyclically adjusted trailing SP-500 earnings (various multi-decade horizons), the SP-500 total-return index level, total stock market capitalization, Gross Domestic Product, non-financial corporate equities and liabilities, non-financial corporate business net-worth and percentage of investors’ allocation to stocks versus cash and bonds […]

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RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI)

Download article as PDF PART-1 There are currently 4 mainstream models used to forecast 10-year total returns on the SP-500 (dividends re-invested) The Shiller CAPE ratio (PE10) The Warren Buffet Indicator Tobin’s Q-Ratio Average Investor allocation to stocks The non-linear quarterly correlations between these four models (x-axes) and achieved 10-year future total returns (y-axes) on the […]

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Valuations not at nose-bleed levels yet

Download article as PDF The recent run in the major U.S stock indices has resulted in Shiller-PE charts being trotted out showing how far we are off the historical mean, implying a nasty pullback is in the works. The problem with a historical mean is that it is a single horizontal value on a chart […]

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Fingerprints of a short-term market top

Download article as PDF The SP-500 has rallied sharply since the 15th October bottom, recovering all her losses in a shorter time than it took to incur them. It was a very rare display of the opposite behavior to the norm where “the bull climbs the staircase and the bear comes down the elevator”, since […]

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Great Trough Detector Improvements

Download article as PDF You will notice a new layout for the Great Trough Detector (GTR) chart as shown below. The Signal Panel has been revised to be more intuitive and we have added a new count panel below that: 1. The Signal Panel The first task of this panel is to highlight your two […]

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“Baby” correction belies verocity of breadth sell-off

Download article as PDF The current stock market correction is diminutive in relative terms – hardly anything to sit up and take notice of. However an examination of underlying breadth deterioration reveals an astonishing plunge of the net new quarterly highs (the percentage of new quarterly highs less the percentage of new quarterly lows). This […]

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