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MIB: The Cut Consensus Is Dead — Can Warsh’s Fed Avoid a Hike Without a Bond Market Tantrum?

By RecessionALERT on May 12, 2026 in Reflections

April CPI hit 3.8% — hottest since May 2023 — eliminating all 2026 cut bets and lifting hike odds to 30%; QCOM crashed 11.5% as Monday’s record highs evaporated. WTI settled at $102/bbl (+4.1%) with Goldman warning on downstream product shortages from naphtha to aviation fuel. Goolsbee explicitly tabled rate hikes; Warsh’s Fed Chair vote is Wednesday. UNH’s EPS beat (+9.7%) lifted Healthcare to S&P top sector. $166B in tariff refunds began flowing back to Walmart, Target, and Nike.

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MIB: Strait Relief — Record Highs, Oil Collapse, $127B Tariff Refunds, and a Fed Forced to Recalibrate

By RecessionALERT on April 17, 2026 in Reflections

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open,” sending WTI oil crashing 11.4% in the largest single-day drop since the war began. S&P 500 closed above 7,100 for the first time (+1.20%); Nasdaq’s winning streak hit 13 sessions — longest since 1992. Netflix (NFLX −9.72%) tanked on weak Q2 guidance and Reed Hastings’ board exit. Fed’s Waller: rate cuts viable if Hormuz stays open. A $127B IEEPA tariff refund portal launches Monday.

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MIB: Sell America — Tariff Chaos & AI Disruption Send S&P Negative for 2026

By RecessionALERT on February 23, 2026 in Reflections

SCOTUS struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs 6-3 — hours later he imposed a new 15% global tariff under Section 122, sending the S&P 500 -1.04% to 6,837 and negative for 2026. IBM cratered 13.0%, its worst day since October 2000, and CrowdStrike fell 11.3% as Anthropic’s AI coding platform upended legacy tech and cybersecurity. Gold hit a new all-time record above $5,164 on a ‘Sell America’ rotation. Fed’s Waller called a March rate cut a ‘coin flip’ as tariff chaos scrambles the inflation outlook. J.P. Morgan raised recession odds to 35%.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.