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MIB Daily: Not a Rate-Cut Rally but a Growth One, PMI 56.0 With the 2Y Charging 4.7bps, Gold $4,672 and Bitcoin $77,522 Bid on a Flat Dollar, Utilities -1.97% Into Warsh in Seven Days

By RecessionALERT on August 21, 2026 in Reflections

Flash PMI shocked at 56.0, a 52-month high, putting Q3 growth near 3%: cyclicals bought it, the two-year charged for it. US-Canada talks collapsed; 50% duties hit $20B of Canadian goods at midnight. Gold cleared $4,672 and Bitcoin ran 6.69% to $77,522 with the dollar flat and yields higher. Tesla +5.14% on Nevada’s first paid robotaxi permits; Marvell -5.56% despite a 38% target raise. Fourteen Walmart cuts, eight Ross raises, same session. Oil rigs fell a third straight week.

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MIB Daily: China Cracks the Chip Chokepoint, Semis Sink 20% — Equal-Weight S&P Hits a Record as a De-Hedged Market Rotates Into Value Ahead of the Fed

By RecessionALERT on July 28, 2026 in Reflections

China cracked the last chip chokepoint — domestic lithography in mass production — and the semiconductor index fell a fourth straight day, now 20% off its high. Yet the equal-weight S&P 500 closed at a record: rotation, not retreat. Oil broke below $80 on a Gulf-backed Hormuz plan. Consumer confidence missed a third month; hiring slowed a fifth week. J&J settled talc for $5.5B and closed at a record. Apple touched $5 trillion, then let it go — Fed decides tomorrow.

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MIB Daily: WTI +9%, Oracle’s 52-Week Low, and a Hawkish Fed — Tuesday’s CPI Decides Whether to Rotate Into Energy or Stay Defensive

By RecessionALERT on July 13, 2026 in Reflections

Trump reinstated a Strait of Hormuz blockade on Iran, sending WTI up 9%, S&P 500 down 0.79%, Nasdaq 1.88%, and VIX up 14%. Fed’s Waller reopened rate-hike odds ahead of Tuesday’s CPI, lifting 10Y yields to 4.626%. Oracle (-6.47%) hit a 52-week low on a credit downgrade over OpenAI concentration risk, while SK Hynix cratered 15% in Seoul and SanDisk (-12.63%) led a NAND selloff. Gold fell 2.55% despite the escalation, dollar strength overriding safe-haven demand.

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MIB Daily: WMT –7.3% converts soft data to hard guidance — Flash PMI prices hit 2022 high, IBM wins foundry, NVDA can’t hold its beat

By RecessionALERT on May 21, 2026 in Reflections

IBM surged +12% on a $1B CHIPS Act quantum foundry award, fueling a broad AI-semiconductor rally. Walmart cratered -7.27%, citing tariffs and fuel in a guidance miss that flags real consumer stress. The Philadelphia Fed collapsed 27 points to -0.4 as new orders turned negative, while Flash PMI input prices hit a post-2022 high. Richmond Fed’s Barkin questioned whether five-plus years above target still justifies the ‘look through’ doctrine. NVDA fell -1.77% despite 85% revenue growth — its fourth post-earnings decline.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.