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MIB Daily: A VIX at 14.92 Says Nobody Is Paying for the Hormuz Tail, WTI +3.50% and Utilities Uncapped With PG&E -18%, While the Two-Year Refused to Confirm a 72% Hike Bet and AI Became the Hiding Place

By RecessionALERT on August 31, 2026 in Reflections

US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s overnight retaliation sent WTI up 3.50% to $86.32 and European gas to its highest since January 2023. Nine of eleven sectors closed red. California’s wildfire bill omitted the liability cap: PG&E -18%, Edison -23%. The FTC and 22 states sued Amazon over a $20bn ad-auction scheme; AMZN -2.50%. Warsh went hawkish at the G20 but the two-year refused to confirm. Aon bought USI for $17bn, all debt-funded.

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MIB Daily: The Index Lied, Warsh’s 12.2bp Two-Year Move Hit Gold -3.34% and Semi Equipment -5% While the S&P Held, and Chicago PMI at 47.1 Asks Whether the Hike Trade Survives Next Week’s ISM

By RecessionALERT on August 28, 2026 in Reflections

Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut put a September hike back on the table: the two-year jumped 12.2bp to 4.354%, its biggest day since June. Gold -3.34%, silver -4.31% and the Russell -1.39% took the hit while the S&P shrugged at -0.25%. He also retired forward guidance outright. Chicago PMI cratered to 47.1. PayPal -12.71% after Advent and Stripe walked from a $53bn bid it had already rejected. Semis unwound 4-5%; Amazon +3.95%. BioNTech -8.37% on a halted cancer trial.

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MIB Daily: Bad News Stopped Being Good News, Weak Retail Sales and Hormuz Risk Lifted Yields as AMD’s Bond Deal Beat Broadcom’s AI Debt Fears, Setting Up Wednesday’s Tariff Cliff for Energy Over Tech

By RecessionALERT on August 14, 2026 in Reflections

A record intraday high evaporated: retail sales fell 0.6% and UMich sentiment crashed to 51.0 — yet Treasuries sold off, because inflation expectations rose. The 10Y hit 4.692% and GDPNow cut Q3 growth to 4.3%. AMD surged 6.50% on a record $4.75B bond deal while Broadcom sank 5.94% on hidden AI debt. Goldman began syndicating Nvidia’s $500B financing. The UAE accused Iran of piracy in Hormuz. And Canada is five days from a 50% tariff cliff.

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MIB: Iran Day 11 — False Hormuz Tweet, Oracle AI Blowout, and Tomorrow’s Defining CPI Print

By RecessionALERT on March 10, 2026 in Reflections

Iran Day 11: US launches “most intense strikes”; Iran attacks all 6 GCC nations. Energy Sec. Wright’s false Hormuz tweet sparked a $30 intraday oil crash — White House retracted in minutes. WTI settled -6.3% at $88.85; S&P seesawed -1.5% to +0.8% before closing -0.21%. Gold hit a new record at $5,211/oz (+2%). Oracle blows out Q3 AMC: Rev +22%, $553B RPO (+325% YoY). February CPI due tomorrow 8:30 AM — market-defining print.

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