Iran’s 14-point Hormuz draft MoU sent WTI from $91.78 to $84.24 by Friday, potentially deflating the energy surge that drove May CPI to a three-year high (4.2%) and locked out Fed cuts heading into Warsh’s June 17 inaugural FOMC — now with 47% hike odds. SpaceX debuted as the largest IPO in US history ($75B raised, +19.3%), while Intel’s Google foundry win and JPMorgan’s KLAC upgrade drove the semiconductor equipment complex +20–32% on the week.
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MIB Weekly: Dow Cracked 50,000 and a $2.1T IPO Debuted in the Same Week — Long Semis, Short AI Cash-Burn; Iran Holds the Key to Warsh’s June 17 FOMC
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MIB Weekly: NFP 172K Rate-Shocked the AI Bull Thesis — 53% Hike Odds, $1.77T SpaceX Debuts June 12, and Financials Outperform Semis
May NFP 172K — double consensus — pushed Fed hike odds above 50% for the first time in 2026, snapping the S&P’s nine-week winning streak on its worst day since October as Computex’s AI semiconductor euphoria reversed simultaneously. The Iran arc ran all five sessions — WTI peaking at $96 on US strikes against Qeshm Island before retreating to $90.24 — keeping PCE elevated entering Warsh’s June 16-17 inaugural FOMC, where the rate-regime inflection now enters blackout locked in.
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MIB Weekly: AI Infrastructure Goes Institutional ($51B Backlog, Contracts Signed) — Market Priced Iran Deal and No Hike; Neither Is Confirmed
Dell’s AI server blowout (+32.8%, $51.3B backlog) drove the Dow above 51,000 for the first time, confirming the AI infrastructure super-cycle as contracted structural demand. Iran’s Hormuz ceasefire sent WTI down 9% for the week — its largest monthly crude loss in six years — with Trump’s final determination still unsigned at Friday’s close. Q1 GDP 1.6%, corporate profits ‑0.4% QoQ, PCE 3.8%, and Bowman’s hawkish Fed pivot escalated June FOMC hike risk from noise to genuine debate.
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MIB Weekly: Dow 50,000 on the Day Waller Declared Rate Cuts Dead — WMT’s Guidance Miss Confirms Tariff Squeeze Is Real; QCOM +18%, IBM +16% as AI Rotates to Auto and Quantum
Iran ceasefire optimism crashed WTI 5.7% to below $100 mid-week — lifting the Dow above 50,000 for the first time — but talks stalled Friday on uranium retention, keeping Brent above $100. The same Friday, Fed Governor Waller dropped the easing bias on Warsh’s swearing-in day, with Polymarket pricing a 43% October hike. NVDA validated the AI supercycle (+85% revenue YoY) while QCOM surged +18% on the Stellantis automotive deal and IBM +16% on the CHIPS Act quantum foundry. Walmart’s guidance miss (–7.27%) and UMich’s all-time record low (44.8) confirmed the tariff-and-fuel squeeze is now in corporate income statements.
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MIB Digest: Hormuz Stagflation, Nasdaq 25K, and the Week AI Stopped Taking Capex on Faith
The Strait of Hormuz blockade sent WTI +7.94% and gasoline to a 4-year high of $4.30/gal, while the FOMC’s historic 8-4 split collapsed rate-cut probability from 59% to ~22.5% — stagflation confirmed as the Fed’s base-case bind. Alphabet’s Cloud +63% YoY drove Nasdaq above 25,000 for the first time; Meta’s $145B capex raise was punished -8.65% — the week AI demanded proof of ROI. Eli Lilly: Mounjaro $8.66B (+125% YoY), guidance raised to $82–85B.
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