NY Fed Vice Chair Williams sees one more hike this year and none in 2027, a ceiling futures refuse to price, while Boston’s Collins wants rates “a bit further” higher. A Houthi missile set part of Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters ablaze after oil settled. Bank of America drew a $1.2B anti-money-laundering penalty on the eve of earnings. Applied Materials sank 6.69% on a missing spending forecast while Meta rose 2.63%. Citi and BlackRock both stepped back from US stocks.
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MIB Daily: AI Is Now the Fed’s Inflation Problem as Applied Materials Sinks 6.69%, Aramco Burns After Oil Settles, and BlackRock and Citi Step Back From Stocks at a 5.2% 10-Year Before CPI
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MIB Daily: The S&P 500’s 7,800 Record Runs on AI as the Fed Calls It an Inflation Shock, Google’s Nuclear Deal Lifts Constellation 12% While Chip Equipment Slides, and $101 Brent Squeezes Freight Before the Minutes
The S&P 500 topped 7,800 for its first record close since August (+0.58%), even with the 10-year at 5.274%. Constellation Energy jumped 12.25% on a 20-year Google nuclear deal, lifting Utilities 2.79%. Marvell rose 5.81% after setting a $70-90B fiscal 2031 revenue goal. Fed’s Daly named AI demand alongside oil and tariffs as shocks that could force more hikes if they compound. The August trade deficit widened to $105.6B. Skydance began trading after closing its Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
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MIB Weekly: Hike Odds Collapsed and Yields Rose Anyway, a 5.34% 10-Year Sank Gold and Banks Despite Hormuz Strikes, as Chip Equipment Led and Anthropic’s $2T IPO Tested Who Funds AI
A global long-bond rout drove the week: the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% Thursday, its highest since 2002, and finished 10.9 bps higher even as soft payrolls and a cooler PCE cut October Fed-hike odds to about 23%. Chip equipment carried the Nasdaq 100 to a record (AMAT +11.35%, LRCX +10.24%, KLAC +10.09%) while the S&P 500 and Dow fell. Gold lost 3.48% despite repeated Hormuz ship strikes.
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MIB Daily: Crude’s 5th Gain and EIA’s 8.5% Diesel Hike Mean CPI Won’t Be Reassurance — Payrolls Decelerate a 6th Week as Chip-Equipment (KLA +4.01%) Outruns AI Platforms (GOOGL -3.84%)
Hormuz transits collapse to six vessels against a pre-war 140 — crude posts a fifth straight gain and equities slip into tomorrow’s CPI. The EIA picks the same day to raise its 2026 diesel forecast 8.5% and sees crude stocks below the five-year low all year. Private payrolls decelerate for a sixth week; the front end barely blinked. Alphabet -3.84% as 300 French publishers file over AI Overviews. Intel prices an upsized $20B raise at $95 on $100B of demand.
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MIB Daily: Chips Crack and Oil Spikes on Hormuz Attacks — A Hawkish-Dovish Fed Split Meets Hot Inflation Data as Capital Rotates Into Energy and Healthcare
Chip stocks cratered despite Samsung’s blowout profit — Intel -9.66%, Nasdaq 100 -1.77% — as Reuters reported DeepSeek is building its own AI chip. NY Fed inflation expectations hit 3.7%, highest since 2023, lifting the 10-year 7bps and exposing a Hammack-hawkish, Williams-dovish Fed split before the July 28-29 FOMC. Oil spiked 5.3% after Iran struck tankers near Hormuz and Washington revoked Tehran’s export license. Healthcare’s rotation rally extended; Rivian sank 18% on a $1.5B raise, SpaceX slid 6.34% in its Nasdaq-100 debut.
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MIB Daily: Payrolls Miss (57K vs 115K) Fuels a Record Dow as Gold and Chips Flash a Warning — Can AI Capex Survive the Rotation Into Value?
June payrolls badly missed at 57K vs. 115K est.; unemployment fell to 4.2% only as participation hit a five-year low. Dow rode Fed rate-cut hopes to a record (+1.14%) even as gold’s 1.3% jump read it as a growth warning. Semiconductors extended their rout (SanDisk -14%, KLA -11.5%) as Meta (-4.9%) admitted AI agents “hasn’t accelerated as expected.” Tesla fell 7.5% despite blowout deliveries; O’Reilly bid ~$10B for GPC’s NAPA; oil hit a 4-month low on US-Iran progress.
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