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MIB Daily: MRVL +33%, S&P 7,600 on Huang’s Computex Crown — Hammack’s Hike Signal Makes Friday’s NFP the Market’s Next Binary

By RecessionALERT on June 2, 2026 in Reflections

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang named Marvell “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex — MRVL +33%, chip equipment up 5-7%, S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time. Alphabet’s $80B equity offering to fund AI capex sent GOOGL -4%; Berkshire took a $10B stake. FTC broadened antitrust probe into Microsoft’s cloud/AI bundling (MSFT -4%). JOLTS April surged 731K above consensus as Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warned a rate hike “may soon be appropriate,” pushing 2026 hike odds to 34% with WTI above $93.

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MIB: Hormuz Collapse + Chip Rally + Goldman’s Hawkish Pivot — Three Forces Reshaping the 2026 Portfolio

By RecessionALERT on May 11, 2026 in Reflections

WTI surged 3.1% to $98.40 as Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire ‘on life support’ — Aramco warns Hormuz disruption could extend to year-end. A 90-day US-China tariff pause sent QCOM +8.4% to an ATH ahead of the Trump-Xi Beijing summit May 13–15. Goldman pushed its first Fed cut to December 2026, assigning 44% odds to a hike by April 2027. CPI tomorrow (+3.7% exp.) is the week’s pivot. Lower-income consumers are in discretionary contraction; UMich sentiment is at a 74-year low.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.