An OpenAI revenue scare split the AI trade: the FT’s ~$50 billion run-rate sank chipmakers and Bloomberg’s $70 billion target revived only software, leaving Intel -12.26% and Palantir +10.75% on the week. The S&P 500 still gained 1.15% after its first close above 7,800, carried by staples, utilities and energy. The 10-year hit a 24-year closing high of 5.315% before auctions drew buyers and the Fed minutes named AI borrowing as a rival for capital.
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MIB Weekly: Markets Paid for AI’s Users, Not Its Builders, as OpenAI Doubts Sank Chips and Staples Led, Bonds Shrugged Off Fed Hike Talk and Brent Held $104, Leaving Wednesday’s CPI to Set the Date
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MIB Daily: The S&P 500’s 7,800 Record Runs on AI as the Fed Calls It an Inflation Shock, Google’s Nuclear Deal Lifts Constellation 12% While Chip Equipment Slides, and $101 Brent Squeezes Freight Before the Minutes
The S&P 500 topped 7,800 for its first record close since August (+0.58%), even with the 10-year at 5.274%. Constellation Energy jumped 12.25% on a 20-year Google nuclear deal, lifting Utilities 2.79%. Marvell rose 5.81% after setting a $70-90B fiscal 2031 revenue goal. Fed’s Daly named AI demand alongside oil and tariffs as shocks that could force more hikes if they compound. The August trade deficit widened to $105.6B. Skydance began trading after closing its Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
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MIB Daily: The Bond Market Is Doing the Fed’s Hiking, a 5.292% 10-Year Defies Cooler PCE as Tech Stands Alone, Banks and Pharma Get New Rules and Crude’s September Surge Tests the Pause Before Friday’s Payrolls
A cooler August PCE cut October hike odds to about 37% from 51%, and Goldman pushed its next-hike call to December. Bonds balked: the 10-year rose 5.0 bps to 5.292%, highest since April 2002 per Investing.com, and 30-year mortgage rates hit 7.30%. A late selloff left only the Nasdaq 100 higher. The Fed finalized a stress-test overhaul over Barr’s dissent, CMS tied Part B drug rebates to international prices, and Amazon signed a 20-year nuclear deal with Constellation.
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MIB Daily: MRVL +33%, S&P 7,600 on Huang’s Computex Crown — Hammack’s Hike Signal Makes Friday’s NFP the Market’s Next Binary
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang named Marvell “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex — MRVL +33%, chip equipment up 5-7%, S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time. Alphabet’s $80B equity offering to fund AI capex sent GOOGL -4%; Berkshire took a $10B stake. FTC broadened antitrust probe into Microsoft’s cloud/AI bundling (MSFT -4%). JOLTS April surged 731K above consensus as Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warned a rate hike “may soon be appropriate,” pushing 2026 hike odds to 34% with WTI above $93.
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MIB: Hormuz Collapse + Chip Rally + Goldman’s Hawkish Pivot — Three Forces Reshaping the 2026 Portfolio
WTI surged 3.1% to $98.40 as Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire ‘on life support’ — Aramco warns Hormuz disruption could extend to year-end. A 90-day US-China tariff pause sent QCOM +8.4% to an ATH ahead of the Trump-Xi Beijing summit May 13–15. Goldman pushed its first Fed cut to December 2026, assigning 44% odds to a hike by April 2027. CPI tomorrow (+3.7% exp.) is the week’s pivot. Lower-income consumers are in discretionary contraction; UMich sentiment is at a 74-year low.
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