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MIB Daily: Stagflation Trap Snaps Shut — CPI 4.2%, WTI Hits $91 on Iran, SMCI -17%; Long Energy/Defensives, June 17 FOMC the Test

By RecessionALERT on June 10, 2026 in Reflections

May CPI hit 4.2% YoY — a three-year high — making December a near-certain hike and pushing Goldman’s odds to 20%. US-Iran ceasefire collapsed: US struck Iranian air defenses, Iran retaliated, Trump signaled civilian-infrastructure strikes. WTI +4.06% to $91.78 on a seventh straight EIA draw of -7.2M bbl, triple estimates. SMCI -17% on a $7B raise dragged QCOM -6.92%, AVGO -5.12% as SpaceX’s $75B IPO extracts AI-trade liquidity. S&P -1.62%, Dow cracked 50,000; only Consumer Defensives and Energy finished green.

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MIB Daily: This Isn’t a Dip — MRVL -7.6%, Nasdaq -1.12%, 4.2% CPI Due Wednesday, Hormuz Shut: Defensives Over Tech Through June 17

By RecessionALERT on June 9, 2026 in Reflections

AI mega-caps remain under distribution as SpaceX’s $75B IPO ($150B+ in orders) drains liquidity — MRVL -7.6%, AAPL -3.7%, Nasdaq -1.12%. Iran-Israel ceasefire cuts WTI -3% to $88.54 — but Hormuz stays blocked and Trump vowed a US response to the Apache downing. NFIB price plans hit 34% (4-year high); Wednesday’s CPI consensus is 4.2% YoY (3-year high) — make-or-break for Warsh’s June 17 FOMC debut. GSK bids $10.6B (40% premium) for Nuvalent’s oncology pipeline; 9 of 11 sectors advanced on defensive rotation.

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MIB: Oil Shock Meets Software Selloff as Meta and Microsoft Fund AI With Layoffs

By RecessionALERT on April 23, 2026 in Reflections

S&P 500 and Nasdaq reversed off intraday record highs to close -0.41% / -0.57% as ServiceNow plunged 18% on a margin cut, snapping XLK’s 16-day streak. Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” Iranian boats in Hormuz; WTI spiked +4.35% to $97 as Brent held flat — a rare $9 spread. Meta cut 8,000 jobs and Microsoft launched its first-ever buyout (MSFT -3.97%) to fund AI capex. IBM -8.25% and AXP -4.31% on beat-and-fade; UNP +8.77%, CMCSA +7.73%. Intel crushed AMC. Spirit Airlines heads to court April 30 with 90% US government ownership on the table.

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