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MIB Daily: Intel Fell 7.89% on a Blowout Quarter as Semis Shed 4.4% and Apple Rose 3.53% — a 12.5% Tariff Floor Now Covers 99.4% of Imports, and a Split FOMC Meets Wednesday

By RecessionALERT on July 24, 2026 in Reflections

Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10-12.5% hit 60 economies covering 99.4% of US imports — a durable levy replacing the struck-down IEEPA regime. An AI capex scare gutted chips: Intel -7.89% after a blowout quarter, SanDisk -10.79%, Micron -6.99%. Apple +3.53% and IBM +3.65% won the rotation. Crude reversed hard, Brent -2.50% to $98, on a China-brokered Iran overture. July PMI hit an eight-month high of 53.6. A third of the rates market now prices a Wednesday hike.

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MIB: Paper-Thin S&P/Nasdaq Records as Hormuz Re-Escalates, OpenAI Decouples from Microsoft, & Powell Convenes His Final FOMC

By RecessionALERT on April 27, 2026 in Reflections

S&P 500 (+0.12%) and Nasdaq (+0.01%) eked out paper-thin records as Brent spiked above $101 on stalled Hormuz talks. Trump cancelled Pakistan envoys; IEA warned supply won’t recover for two years. Qualcomm surged 12% on a report OpenAI is building an AI smartphone chip with QCOM and MediaTek. Microsoft-OpenAI exclusivity ended, freeing OpenAI to deploy on AWS/GCP. Powell’s likely final FOMC opens Tuesday; Warsh Senate vote Wednesday. Verizon posted its first positive Q1 phone adds in 13 years.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.