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MIB Weekly: SOX -20% Into a Bear Market as PANW Hits Records and Oil Jumps 15% — the Fed Still Won’t Blink Despite Cooling CPI

By RecessionALERT on July 18, 2026 in Reflections

The Strait of Hormuz war escalated all week — a reinstated blockade, six nights of US strikes, and a Friday threat to close a second chokepoint — pushing oil up 15%. A parallel AI-capex credibility crisis pushed the semiconductor index into a bear market, even as PayPal surged 16-17% on a $53 billion takeover bid from Stripe and Advent. IBM crashed 25% (worst since 1987) while Goldman Sachs surged 9% to a record high, and the Fed stayed hawkish despite cooling inflation.

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MIB Daily: A Divided Fed, Cracking Chips (Micron -8%), and Iran’s Widening Risk — Rotation Wins Into a September Reckoning

By RecessionALERT on July 15, 2026 in Reflections

Cooler June PPI fueled a rate-cut rally — S&P 500 +0.38%, Apple (+4%) hit a record high on China’s AI approval. Chip stocks reversed hard: Micron -8%, Dell -9.8%, on fresh Chinese memory-competition fears. Stripe and Advent lobbed a $53B bid for PayPal, sending shares up 16-17%. The Fed split publicly — Williams says inflation “has peaked,” Cook is “prepared to act.” Iran’s conflict widened as US strikes resumed, pushing Brent toward $86. European gas jumped 4% on a Qatari LNG halt.

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MIB: Rebound Day — Meta-AMD Deal Calms AI Fears, Novo Nordisk Enters Price War, & All Eyes Turn to Nvidia

By RecessionALERT on February 24, 2026 in Reflections

Meta commits up to $100B to AMD GPUs (AMD +9.4%), reversing Monday’s AI selloff. S&P 500 bounced 0.77% from Monday’s “tariff disaster.” Novo Nordisk fell another 3% and announced 50% drug price cuts (dragging LLY -2.2%). PayPal surged 6.74% on Stripe acquisition reports. Bitcoin heading for worst February since 2022 crypto winter. All eyes on Nvidia earnings Wednesday.

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MIB: Sell America — Tariff Chaos & AI Disruption Send S&P Negative for 2026

By RecessionALERT on February 23, 2026 in Reflections

SCOTUS struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs 6-3 — hours later he imposed a new 15% global tariff under Section 122, sending the S&P 500 -1.04% to 6,837 and negative for 2026. IBM cratered 13.0%, its worst day since October 2000, and CrowdStrike fell 11.3% as Anthropic’s AI coding platform upended legacy tech and cybersecurity. Gold hit a new all-time record above $5,164 on a ‘Sell America’ rotation. Fed’s Waller called a March rate cut a ‘coin flip’ as tariff chaos scrambles the inflation outlook. J.P. Morgan raised recession odds to 35%.

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