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MIB: Cisco AI Orders Surge, Trump-Xi Summit Ignites Rally, Import Prices Double Estimates

By RecessionALERT on May 14, 2026 in Reflections

Cisco’s AI quarter — orders raised to $9B, hyperscaler demand +217% YoY — ignited the AI complex; all major indices hit records, Dow retook 50,000. Trump-Xi’s 9-point summit (200 Boeing jets, Hormuz pact, trade board) broadened the rally; transports led at +1.40%. April import prices nearly doubled estimates (+1.9% vs +1.0%), compounding 6.0% PPI; December rate-hike odds now 39%. Warsh assumes Fed Chair tomorrow with the hottest trade inflation since 2022. Cerebras (CBRS) IPO +68% — largest tech debut of 2026.

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Retail sales data not supportive of recession

By RecessionALERT on October 16, 2012 in Reflections

The September RETAIL SALES component (RSAFS) of the NBER Recession Model was in today. It surprised to the upside as well as had an upward revision on the prior month. For the most part, this series has been revised downwards over time of late, but this does not necessarily equate to downward revisions to the real-time observed 12-month growth rates. This is shown below where we compare the growth rate of a series that only looks at real-time published data […]

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