Philadelphia fed | RecessionAlert

Tag Archives | Philadelphia fed

MIB: Ceasefire Rip — Record Close, AI Chips Ignite, and a 10-Day Clock Starts Ticking

By RecessionALERT on April 16, 2026 in Reflections

Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire triggers global risk-on rally, erasing Iran war equity losses worldwide. AMD surged +7.80% as TSMC’s 58% profit surge and 30%-plus AI chip demand guidance lit up the semiconductor sector. NFLX crushed Q1 EPS (+62%) but Q2 guidance disappointed and Reed Hastings stepped down as chairman. PLD beat by 30% as data centers now represent 40% of its development pipeline. US claims fell to 207K; industrial production missed badly at -0.5%.

Read full story · Comments are closed

MIB: Precious metals rout, Qatar struck again — Hormuz Week 3 Rewrites Every Portfolio Playbook

By RecessionALERT on March 19, 2026 in Reflections

Gold crashes -5% through $5,000 as real yields spike — silver -6%, platinum -4%. Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG; Dutch TTF gas surges +13%. Chip equipment stocks surge (LRCX +4.13%, AMD +2.91%) on Micron AI beat, but MU -3.78% sell-the-news. Jobless claims 205K beat, defying stagflation fears. S&P -0.28% but Russell 2000 +0.64% as Israel pledges Hormuz reopening. FedEx beats AMC, raises guidance.

Read full story · Comments are closed

50 State Co-incident update : No Recession

By RecessionALERT on September 27, 2012 in Reflections

A while back we published an interesting project (Predicting US Recessions with State co-incident data) to see if we could get some advance recession warning from the co-incident indices of the 50 US states. We built a composite economic index of 50 U.S states as published by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, combined in a positively-weighted index (CEI) that is statistically regressed with NBER & 3-months prior dates (hence the “leading” characteristics of the composite.) It aims to give 3 months […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.