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MIB: Precious metals rout, Qatar struck again — Hormuz Week 3 Rewrites Every Portfolio Playbook

By RecessionALERT on March 19, 2026 in Reflections

Gold crashes -5% through $5,000 as real yields spike — silver -6%, platinum -4%. Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG; Dutch TTF gas surges +13%. Chip equipment stocks surge (LRCX +4.13%, AMD +2.91%) on Micron AI beat, but MU -3.78% sell-the-news. Jobless claims 205K beat, defying stagflation fears. S&P -0.28% but Russell 2000 +0.64% as Israel pledges Hormuz reopening. FedEx beats AMC, raises guidance.

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50 State Co-incident update : No Recession

By RecessionALERT on September 27, 2012 in Reflections

A while back we published an interesting project (Predicting US Recessions with State co-incident data) to see if we could get some advance recession warning from the co-incident indices of the 50 US states. We built a composite economic index of 50 U.S states as published by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, combined in a positively-weighted index (CEI) that is statistically regressed with NBER & 3-months prior dates (hence the “leading” characteristics of the composite.) It aims to give 3 months […]

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.