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MIB Daily: META +8.85% threatens the chip trade from within (SOX -7%) — short semis, own Financials as Thursday’s NFP decides the stagflation exit

By RecessionALERT on July 1, 2026 in Reflections

META +8.85% on AI cloud reports; global semi selloff (KLAC -11.8%, MU -10.57%, SOX -7%) split Q3’s opening session. Atlanta Fed cut GDPNow to 1.2% from 2.5% — 2026’s largest single-day revision — as ADP missed at 98K; Thursday’s NFP is the binary risk event. Warsh at ECB Sintra refused July guidance with hike odds at 54%; 10Y +6 bps to 4.48%. WFC +3.99% on Goldman upgrade and 11% dividend raise as all 32 banks cleared stress tests; Financials +1.61%.

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MIB Daily: Iran deal may be the only kill-shot for 6.5% PPI — WTI -4.43%, SOX +8%, SpaceX SPCX Friday; but two ceasefires failed, and Warsh’s June 16 FOMC resets energy/semis/duration

By RecessionALERT on June 11, 2026 in Reflections

Iran peace deal erases Wednesday’s stagflation trade — Trump cancels strikes, announces imminent signing; Dow +1.86%, WTI -4.43%, VIX -12%. Semiconductors surge: KLAC +12.86%, SNDK +14.46%, LRCX +12.53% as JP Morgan calls KLAC a triple-earner by 2030. SpaceX prices at $135/share, raises $75B, debuts Friday as SPCX. PPI hits 6.5% YoY while claims rise to 229K — Fed trapped entering next week’s Warsh FOMC. US-China deal declared “done,” rare earths resume, but Beijing calls it only a framework.

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MIB Daily: Intel Wins Google and NVIDIA in One Day (+11%) — Long Semis and Fiber; Wednesday’s 4.2% CPI and Warsh’s Debut Dare the 8-of-11 Red Market to Hold

By RecessionALERT on June 8, 2026 in Reflections

Intel landed Google’s 3M+ TPU order and NVIDIA 18A foundry trials Monday, validating its three-year transformation and sending INTC +11%, MU +10%, KLAC/AMAT +9%. Apple reversed a 52-week intraday high to close -1.87% after WWDC revealed Siri AI as a Google Gemini reskin. Wednesday’s May CPI (headline YoY exp. 4.2%) is the last major datapoint before Warsh’s debut FOMC; Israel-Iran re-escalation and WTI near $94 add a stagflationary dimension. Corning (GLW +5.55%) secured Amazon’s AI fiber buildout.

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