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MIB Daily: The AI Trade’s Weak Spot Is the Bill, Lam Research -11.76% and GE Vernova -10.64% as Staples and Treasuries Rally, Brent Hits $112.88 and Trump Invokes the DPA for Oil, Six Days Before the FOMC

By RecessionALERT on October 22, 2026 in Reflections

An AI-hardware rout sank the Nasdaq 100 2.90% and dragged the S&P 500 down 1.21%, yet two of three S&P stocks rose. Lam Research fell 11.76% and GE Vernova lost 10.64%. Treasuries caught a haven bid, cutting the 10-year yield 17.2 bps to 4.951%. Brent jumped 3.73% to $112.88, its highest close since May 4, after Houthi strikes on Saudi targets. Trump invoked the Defense Production Act for domestic oil. Moderna sank 17.57% on leaked Phase 3 melanoma data.

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MIB: NFP Blowout Lifts S&P to ATH as Michigan Sentiment Hits 74-Year Low, Apple-Intel Deal Reshapes US Chip Strategy

By RecessionALERT on May 8, 2026 in Reflections

April NFP exploded to +115K vs. 65K expected, vaulting the S&P 500 to a new ATH and cementing Fed-on-hold through 2027 — but Michigan Sentiment crashed to a 74-year record low of 48.2 as $4.55 gasoline hammers household confidence. Apple and Intel struck a preliminary chip-manufacturing deal backed by a 10% White House equity stake in Intel. Micron crossed $800B, eclipsing JPMorgan. Iran diplomacy inched forward but active military exchanges continue — Hormuz remains the inflation wildcard. Warsh Senate vote: next week.

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MIB: Ceasefire Collapse, Productivity Miss, and FOMC Dissent Fracture the Bull Case

By RecessionALERT on May 7, 2026 in Reflections

Iran accused US forces of ceasefire violations, reversing Wednesday’s record rally — WTI +2.71% to $97.66, S&P 500 –0.38%, 10-of-11 sectors red. Q1 nonfarm productivity hit +0.8% (biggest miss since 2023) with ULC at +2.3% and real wages turning negative. Hammack called the FOMC’s rate-cut signal “misleading,” formalizing the 4-dissenter bloc — hike optionality is live. Challenger April cuts +38% MoM with AI driving 26%, collapsing Friday’s NFP consensus to ~60K. Boeing CEO joins Trump’s China delegation; 600-aircraft deal speculation lifts BA.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.